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Scale and per-financiation of industrial production that requires economic growth to pay back loans (that are actually paid back with future loans). Economic g

Scale and per-financiation of industrial production that requires economic growth to pay back loans (that are actually paid back with future loans). Economic growth was also likely close to zero due to lack of energy resources. With no expected future growth you won't make any investments that bet on future growth. Capitalism also requires an external energy source like coal, gas, possibly nuclear since economic growth and wealth needs energy to be sustained. I have a paper about it, which calculates it in mW per dollar growth and mW per Dollar of wealth. Edit: With me "having a paper" I mean on my data collection. It was not published by me.

alextheparrot 6y ago
Would you feel comfortable linking to the paper? I haven't shifted entirely to accept the "Capitalism requires industrialization" idea, but irrespective the paper sounds interesting and contextual
- joyj2nd 6y ago
  It is mentioned in this post: Wealth And Energy Consumption Are Inseparable http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2012/01/wealth-and-energy-consumption-are-inseparable.html http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2012/01/wealth-and-energy-... I don't know a book in English out of my head that explains some inherent features of capitalism. Gail Tverberg does a pretty good job but she does not explain a lot of things, she just assumes that you are aware of some things: "There is No Steady State Economy (except at a very basic level)" http://ourfiniteworld.com/2011/02/21/there-is-no-steady-state-economy-except-at-a-very-basic-level/ http://ourfiniteworld.com/2011/02/21/there-is-no-steady-stat... Limits to Growth–At our doorstep, but not recognized http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-02-12/limits-to-growth-at-our-doorstep-but-not-recognized http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-02-12/limits-to-growt... Partly relevant if you accept: 1. The need of growth in capitalism 2. That growth and energy consumption are interlinked: Galactic-Scale Energy http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/07/galactic-scale-energy/ http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/07/galactic-scale-e... The was one guy he wrote, I think it was in the HBR if I remember correctly, that he found that the US has more and more industrial output/GDP growth with fewer energy needs. This is not wrong but it is only true because the US outsources energy hungry productions to China. I actually emailed him with some data. Unfortunately he never replied.
  - philipkglass 6y ago
    This is not wrong but it is only true because the US outsources energy hungry productions to China. It's true that the US effectively imports energy via foreign goods, but I don't think that effect accounts for all the decline in US energy consumption per capita. Carbon dioxide emissions are an imperfect but (IMO) good-enough proxy for energy, since the world's energy supply is still dominated by fossil fuels. If the US counted imported goods toward its CO2 emissions, as of 2016 they would be 7.7% higher: https://ourworldindata.org/consumption-based-co2 https://ourworldindata.org/consumption-based-co2 Primary energy consumption per capita peaked in the US in 1978: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/energy-use-per-capita?tab=chart&country=USA https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/energy-use-per-capita?tab... It was down to 79,056 kWh/capita as of 2015, compared to 98,139 kWh/capita in 1978. If you adjust the 2015 number up by 7.7% it's 85,143 kWh/capita -- not down as much, but still down. That's lower than the average for the 1970s, 1980s, or 1990s. (And China didn't really become an export powerhouse until after it joined the WTO in 2001.)
    - joyj2nd 6y ago
      "It's true that the US effectively imports energy via foreign goods" Not only this. Apple designs IPhones. iPhones are produced in China, some may be shipped to the US, some may be shipped to Europe. If you do this via HK, you basically pay zero Tax on the profits. This leads to: 1. High profitable US tech companies 2. Little tax revenues 3. As a side effect, the US and Europe have a trade deficit with China since an iPhone shipped to the US or Europe appears in the export balance sheet of China. There is a paper, I think from 2007 about this, that calls this "dark matter in accounting" https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=878096 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=878096 Based on google (it shows me a graph: https://www.google.com/search?q=us+energy+use+per+capita https://www.google.com/search?q=us+energy+use+per+capita ) I would call the per captia consumption basically constant from the 80ies to 2008. After that is is shrinking. Please also see: Is it really possible to decouple GDP Growth from Energy Growth? https://ourfiniteworld.com/2011/11/15/is-it-really-possible-to-decouple-gdp-growth-from-energy-growth/ https://ourfiniteworld.com/2011/11/15/is-it-really-possible-... EDIT: Added the link the the dark matter paper

alextheparrot 6y ago

Would you feel comfortable linking to the paper? I haven't shifted entirely to accept the "Capitalism requires industrialization" idea, but irrespective the paper sounds interesting and contextual

joyj2nd 6y ago
It is mentioned in this post: Wealth And Energy Consumption Are Inseparable http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2012/01/wealth-and-energy-consumption-are-inseparable.html http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2012/01/wealth-and-energy-... I don't know a book in English out of my head that explains some inherent features of capitalism. Gail Tverberg does a pretty good job but she does not explain a lot of things, she just assumes that you are aware of some things: "There is No Steady State Economy (except at a very basic level)" http://ourfiniteworld.com/2011/02/21/there-is-no-steady-state-economy-except-at-a-very-basic-level/ http://ourfiniteworld.com/2011/02/21/there-is-no-steady-stat... Limits to Growth–At our doorstep, but not recognized http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-02-12/limits-to-growth-at-our-doorstep-but-not-recognized http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-02-12/limits-to-growt... Partly relevant if you accept: 1. The need of growth in capitalism 2. That growth and energy consumption are interlinked: Galactic-Scale Energy http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/07/galactic-scale-energy/ http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/07/galactic-scale-e... The was one guy he wrote, I think it was in the HBR if I remember correctly, that he found that the US has more and more industrial output/GDP growth with fewer energy needs. This is not wrong but it is only true because the US outsources energy hungry productions to China. I actually emailed him with some data. Unfortunately he never replied.
- philipkglass 6y ago
  This is not wrong but it is only true because the US outsources energy hungry productions to China. It's true that the US effectively imports energy via foreign goods, but I don't think that effect accounts for all the decline in US energy consumption per capita. Carbon dioxide emissions are an imperfect but (IMO) good-enough proxy for energy, since the world's energy supply is still dominated by fossil fuels. If the US counted imported goods toward its CO2 emissions, as of 2016 they would be 7.7% higher: https://ourworldindata.org/consumption-based-co2 https://ourworldindata.org/consumption-based-co2 Primary energy consumption per capita peaked in the US in 1978: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/energy-use-per-capita?tab=chart&country=USA https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/energy-use-per-capita?tab... It was down to 79,056 kWh/capita as of 2015, compared to 98,139 kWh/capita in 1978. If you adjust the 2015 number up by 7.7% it's 85,143 kWh/capita -- not down as much, but still down. That's lower than the average for the 1970s, 1980s, or 1990s. (And China didn't really become an export powerhouse until after it joined the WTO in 2001.)
  - joyj2nd 6y ago
    "It's true that the US effectively imports energy via foreign goods" Not only this. Apple designs IPhones. iPhones are produced in China, some may be shipped to the US, some may be shipped to Europe. If you do this via HK, you basically pay zero Tax on the profits. This leads to: 1. High profitable US tech companies 2. Little tax revenues 3. As a side effect, the US and Europe have a trade deficit with China since an iPhone shipped to the US or Europe appears in the export balance sheet of China. There is a paper, I think from 2007 about this, that calls this "dark matter in accounting" https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=878096 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=878096 Based on google (it shows me a graph: https://www.google.com/search?q=us+energy+use+per+capita https://www.google.com/search?q=us+energy+use+per+capita ) I would call the per captia consumption basically constant from the 80ies to 2008. After that is is shrinking. Please also see: Is it really possible to decouple GDP Growth from Energy Growth? https://ourfiniteworld.com/2011/11/15/is-it-really-possible-to-decouple-gdp-growth-from-energy-growth/ https://ourfiniteworld.com/2011/11/15/is-it-really-possible-... EDIT: Added the link the the dark matter paper