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I'm doing a thought experiment. What if Prof. Kalai is right? The field of quantum computation at this point has people who attained titles like "Centennial Pro

I'm doing a thought experiment. What if Prof. Kalai is right? The field of quantum computation at this point has people who attained titles like "Centennial Professor" and "Director of Engineering and Distinguished Scientist." People are on their way to make careers that will rival the luminaries of AI (another field that has not delivered even 1% of what it has promised). What would it take for these folks to acknowledge that it's not working out and find something more productive for themselves to do?

reikonomusha 6y ago
If there will be losers in the event of robust quantum computation not being realizable, they will likely be individuals who are working in the commercialization of the technology, not those academically involved in fundamental research. Programs at Google, Rigetti, IBM, D-Wave, Q-CTRL, Zapata, Horizon QC, Xanadu, etc. are all existentially tied to quantum computing through their business models[1] and they would have the financial incentive to “hold out”[2] on or not entertain opponents seriously. I think somebody like Scott Aaronson—who has made an academic career in computer science and quantum computing—would gladly accept reality were it not to be what he hopes it is, and would be entirely willing to stand on a platform and broadcast the truth. Aaronson is in the business of understanding fundamental truths about computation, not (as far as anybody knows) being a shill for big business. [1] Disclaimer: I’m not deeply familiar business-wise with all the companies listed, so take my “existential tie” with a grain of salt. [2] I’m not claiming that any of these companies would conduct business dishonestly in the event that they were “wrong”.
- dia80 6y ago
  I'm sure your comment is written in excellent faith after some reflection. While i am unable to weigh in on the issue at hand I would offer a few cautionary scraps about luminaries of a field being able to accept it's wrong. The Intelligence Trap[1] is an excellent book that among other things explains how being very clever can make it harder to get at the truth. Formidable intellects can patch any holes that appear in their world view by constructing convincing and credible arguements. "Science advances on funeral at time" paraphrased from Max Planck - the individuals he was thinking of were truth seeking super brains as well. [1] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/41817546-the-intelligence-trap https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/41817546-the-intelligenc...

reikonomusha 6y ago

If there will be losers in the event of robust quantum computation not being realizable, they will likely be individuals who are working in the commercialization of the technology, not those academically involved in fundamental research. Programs at Google, Rigetti, IBM, D-Wave, Q-CTRL, Zapata, Horizon QC, Xanadu, etc. are all existentially tied to quantum computing through their business models[1] and they would have the financial incentive to “hold out”[2] on or not entertain opponents seriously. I think somebody like Scott Aaronson—who has made an academic career in computer science and quantum computing—would gladly accept reality were it not to be what he hopes it is, and would be entirely willing to stand on a platform and broadcast the truth. Aaronson is in the business of understanding fundamental truths about computation, not (as far as anybody knows) being a shill for big business. [1] Disclaimer: I’m not deeply familiar business-wise with all the companies listed, so take my “existential tie” with a grain of salt. [2] I’m not claiming that any of these companies would conduct business dishonestly in the event that they were “wrong”.

dia80 6y ago
I'm sure your comment is written in excellent faith after some reflection. While i am unable to weigh in on the issue at hand I would offer a few cautionary scraps about luminaries of a field being able to accept it's wrong. The Intelligence Trap[1] is an excellent book that among other things explains how being very clever can make it harder to get at the truth. Formidable intellects can patch any holes that appear in their world view by constructing convincing and credible arguements. "Science advances on funeral at time" paraphrased from Max Planck - the individuals he was thinking of were truth seeking super brains as well. [1] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/41817546-the-intelligence-trap https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/41817546-the-intelligenc...