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I thought this quote was interesting: “What is remarkable about coronavirus is that if we are infected our chances of dying seems to mirror our chance of dying

I thought this quote was interesting: “What is remarkable about coronavirus is that if we are infected our chances of dying seems to mirror our chance of dying anyway over the next year, certainly once we pass the age of 20.”

Gys 6y ago
The future is now ;-)
foolmeonce 6y ago
It is interesting, but also a bit misleading. One has double the chance of dying in the next year if infected once and chance of reinfection in the next year. We also don't know the long-term effects on health, so those infected may have higher risks than charts from a pre-covid time either in following years or permanently.
mtmail 6y ago
"Mirror our chance" means the percentage is about the same, but the risk accumulates, so the total risk with Coronavirus is double.
gridlockd 6y ago
The same data could be formulated more alarmingly as: If you're over the age of seventy, catching COVID-19 carries double or triple the annual risk of death on top of your annual risk of death. Of course you're only going to die once in a given year and then never again. We'll have to wait a while to see how much lower mortality will go because we pulled in those deaths early.
pmorici 6y ago
I'm uncertain that is a reasonable statistical comparison. Seems like they are trying to use that to say it isn't a big deal but doesn't that mean that it doubles your risk of dying in a given year? It also doesn't include risk of serious long term complications.
- iguy 6y ago
  We're uncertain about the death rate by at least a factor of 2 anyway. This "about one year" comparison corresponds to an estimate around one percent. Whether you think it's a big deal or not, it seems like a useful way to picture the numbers. And it's interesting that the age profile follows relatively well. This was not true (for instance) for the 1918 influenza, which had higher fatality among young adults.

Gys 6y ago

The future is now ;-)

foolmeonce 6y ago

It is interesting, but also a bit misleading. One has double the chance of dying in the next year if infected once and chance of reinfection in the next year. We also don't know the long-term effects on health, so those infected may have higher risks than charts from a pre-covid time either in following years or permanently.

mtmail 6y ago

"Mirror our chance" means the percentage is about the same, but the risk accumulates, so the total risk with Coronavirus is double.

gridlockd 6y ago

The same data could be formulated more alarmingly as: If you're over the age of seventy, catching COVID-19 carries double or triple the annual risk of death on top of your annual risk of death. Of course you're only going to die once in a given year and then never again. We'll have to wait a while to see how much lower mortality will go because we pulled in those deaths early.

pmorici 6y ago

I'm uncertain that is a reasonable statistical comparison. Seems like they are trying to use that to say it isn't a big deal but doesn't that mean that it doubles your risk of dying in a given year? It also doesn't include risk of serious long term complications.

iguy 6y ago
We're uncertain about the death rate by at least a factor of 2 anyway. This "about one year" comparison corresponds to an estimate around one percent. Whether you think it's a big deal or not, it seems like a useful way to picture the numbers. And it's interesting that the age profile follows relatively well. This was not true (for instance) for the 1918 influenza, which had higher fatality among young adults.