10 ms·

Every tech downturn has a silver lining

78 points by spatters 6y ago

nayuki 6y ago
Related: http://www.paulgraham.com/badeconomy.html http://www.paulgraham.com/badeconomy.html "Why to Start a Startup in a Bad Economy"
- reload01 6y ago
  Really appropriate timing for this thanks!
bawolff 6y ago
> Slack co-founder Stewart Butterfield might be a household name today, but in 2001 'Kay. Maybe in your household. Is this really a tech downturn? Yes, some companies are laying people off, with gig-economy things particularly hard hit, but the entire economy is a mess right now. It doesn't seem like tech is relatively more affected than other industries. I do agree with the general premise that a bubble bursting is like a forest fire clearing away all the bullshit (along with many people's livlihood), and the current tech industry has a lot of BS ripe for being cleared away.
- gkoberger 6y ago
  Would be better worded as "Slack, co-founded by Stewart Butterfield, might be a household name today, but in 2001[...]"
  - bawolff 6y ago
    Slack is certainly more well known than its founder, but neither are household names unless you live in silicon valley. As an example, have you ever watched a movie where someone uses slack? I haven't. Have you ever seen a movie where someone uses google (or some rebranded website that's obviously a google stand-in)? Of course you have. That's what a household name is. Edit: also if it was rephrased that way the rest of the paragraph wouldn't make sense because they're discussing slack's founder well known-ness, not slack.
    - imprettycool 6y ago
      you are being very pedantic
      - saagarjha 6y ago
        Not really.
        imprettycool 6y ago
        why
    - gkoberger 6y ago
      I think, for the sake of this article, you could consider Slack a household name. It doesn't mean everyone has heard of it, it just means "well-known". It's a publicly traded company, and I'd say the average person (especially in America) likely knows what it is. I guess I don't really watch many movies that delve into 21st-century office communication, but I imagine if I did their chat app would be modeled after Slack. Overall, though, this is a minor point compared to the rest of the article.
      - esoterica 6y ago
        I think the average white collar worker at a company with a trendy software stack knows what slack is, but that’s like 5% of the population. The average American definitely does not know what Slack is.
        bryanrasmussen 6y ago
        I think more of the population might know what Church of the Subgenius Slack is than Slack the application.
      - oap 6y ago
        The average person definitely doesn't know. I've met wealthy people in their 20s in LA who don't know who Elon Musk is. Attention is hyper fractionalized. People know who Jeff Bezos is, people don't know Tim Cook.
- wnevets 6y ago
  >'Kay. Maybe in your household. I've used slack everyday for years and I have no idea who the founders are. I'll probably forget Stewart's name by tomorrow morning.
- MattGaiser 6y ago
  > Is this really a tech downturn? Yes, some companies are laying people off, with gig-economy things particularly hard hit, but the entire economy is a mess right now. It doesn't seem like tech is relatively more affected than other industries. If anything, tech seems more insulated. Where I am (Calgary), software engineering job postings seem to have grown. Granted, many of them are not that great jobs for companies that are mostly desperate to get back up and running, but work is there which is more than can be said for other fields. http://blog.indeed.com/2020/04/30/labor-market-spotlight-job-postings/ http://blog.indeed.com/2020/04/30/labor-market-spotlight-job... software is doing better than average.
toadi 6y ago
Totally don't get this article. Even in a downturn keep chipping away (maybe without funding). If you get lucky and you can belong to the 1% haves. Still fuck those 99% others because they are not working hard enough?
- deleted 6y ago
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deleted 6y ago
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troughway 6y ago
After scrolling about 200vh or so for no good reason. >I remember feeling under a pall of gloom, going about with a dark cloud over my soul and tears in my eyes. A little bit melodramatic, but okay. >The disparity between America’s haves and have-nots has been laid bare. The inefficiency of our legislators has made us the laughing stock of the planet (so much so that an opinion writer at the Irish Times even felt pity for America). Everyone is entitled to their opinion, even The Irish Times. >Slack co-founder Stewart Butterfield might be a household name today Other comments covered this nonsense. >To be clear, those being laid off are previously pampered full-time employees and not the gig workers who are treated as disposables by these big companies. > Yes, the future is unknown and it is worrying, but pause for a minute and think about what the future of work looks like: less peer pressure and office politics, less need to run around looking pretty or showing up to show you’re there no need to chase crazy trends and shiny objects, and a lot less emphasis on working just to make sure people see you working. The latter statement can only apply to the former if the "You" is a "pampered full-time employee". Because I doubt the "gig workers" have seen what office politics look like. So then, what's the point of this statement? Rest of the article tries to imagine a future that ignores evolutionary biology, the need for people to connect through more than just a virtual presence, and proclaims we live in the past. Lastly the "have and have nots" bullshit tirade is nicely wrapped up by the author mentioning they're an angel investor for Slack.
- bawolff 6y ago
  Oh, the author is an angel investor in slack! I guess that explains the household name thing. I was originally just assuming some extreme version of living in the silicon valley filter bubble.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
bawolff 6y ago
> My bet is always-on broadband. Virtual worlds, digital entertainment, gaming …. None of it would be possible without broadband. Today, we have about 100-250 Mbps in most modern homes. In some places, you can get a gigabit per second. Now imagine what we could do if, in ten years, we all have 10 gigabits per second in our homes, and we have in-home networks that are fast and fat. Hmm. Kind of an interesting take. I predict the opposite. I think we have hit the diminishing returns on bandwidth. People don't even know what to do with residential internet in the 100mbps. We can stream HD video (both up and down)...what else is there. If there are no applications straining at bandwidth limits now, im not sure improving them will make new products. If anything i think the best gains are going to be in latency and in mobile bandwidth. Cheap high speed, no data cap, internet for cell phones would be pretty great. But still i'd consider that incremental. I think its unlikely the next big technology enabler will be the same as the last one. > In 2001, we imagined a 100 Mbps future — and we got Google, a nearly trillion-dollar company. Google was founded in 1998, and that was still the dial-up era. At the time, I was probably thinking a 1mbps future sounded pretty grand and couldn't imagine 100mbps. Heck my internet right now isn't even that fast.
- jordanthoms 6y ago
  I'd settle for IP-based video conferencing that actually works, 100% of the time. As far as I can tell the major issues with that now are more from WiFi - Bufferbloat is particularly bad there and interference causes small dropouts (run a ping to a local router in the background for a while, and you'll probably see jitter eventually). It's pretty noticeable here in New Zealand where most people are now on fiber connections with easily enough bandwidth and low latency - but video calling is still way harder than it should be.
  - yomly 6y ago
    Are you talking about video chat within NZ or with rest of world? I imagine there's a fixed amount of latency with calling anyone in NZ due to speed of light...
    - fastball 6y ago
metrokoi 6y ago
Yes, the downturn may result in new technology and ideas, but almost all of them would have been possible without the pandemic. This article seems to be speculating a bit to find positives. Many of us are privileged to not be as worried about finances, but for the vast majority of Americans this is nothing like a snowday, as the author puts it. Some times are simply not as good as others, and that's okay.
adamcharnock 6y ago
> My bet is always-on broadband. Virtual worlds, digital entertainment, gaming …. None of it would be possible without broadband. Today, we have about 100-250 Mbps in most modern homes. I’m literally sat in a bank right now opening a bank account for my new ISP company [1], so this is nice to hear! I’m hoping to deliver speeds of around 100Mbit to the rather rural area of Portugal I live in. [1]: https://gardunha.net https://gardunha.net
joelbluminator 6y ago
Are we actually in the midst of a tech downturn though? I mean tech valuation are back to what they were pre corona pretty much. Did VC money completely dry up?
- FartyMcFarter 6y ago
  IBM has laid people off. Some companies like Uber, Lyft and Airbnb laid off a lot of tech people (even if the extent of their status as "tech" companies is questionable). Some governments are pledging support to startups, which is indicative of some trouble: https://sifted.eu/articles/startups-government-support/ https://sifted.eu/articles/startups-government-support/ Anecdotally, I'm also hearing that startups are having a hard time finding funding, which isn't surprising in the current cautious financial climate.
  - joelbluminator 6y ago
    Yes, I hear the anecdotes as well. I guess a lot depends on what happens in the fall/winter corona-wise. If it declines and doesn't come back you could make the case for a relatively quick recovery.

78 points by spatters 6y ago

Related: http://www.paulgraham.com/badeconomy.html http://www.paulgraham.com/badeconomy.html "Why to Start a Startup in a Bad Economy"

reload01 6y ago
Really appropriate timing for this thanks!

bawolff 6y ago

> Slack co-founder Stewart Butterfield might be a household name today, but in 2001 'Kay. Maybe in your household. Is this really a tech downturn? Yes, some companies are laying people off, with gig-economy things particularly hard hit, but the entire economy is a mess right now. It doesn't seem like tech is relatively more affected than other industries. I do agree with the general premise that a bubble bursting is like a forest fire clearing away all the bullshit (along with many people's livlihood), and the current tech industry has a lot of BS ripe for being cleared away.

gkoberger 6y ago
Would be better worded as "Slack, co-founded by Stewart Butterfield, might be a household name today, but in 2001[...]"
- bawolff 6y ago
  Slack is certainly more well known than its founder, but neither are household names unless you live in silicon valley. As an example, have you ever watched a movie where someone uses slack? I haven't. Have you ever seen a movie where someone uses google (or some rebranded website that's obviously a google stand-in)? Of course you have. That's what a household name is. Edit: also if it was rephrased that way the rest of the paragraph wouldn't make sense because they're discussing slack's founder well known-ness, not slack.
  - imprettycool 6y ago
    you are being very pedantic
    - saagarjha 6y ago
      Not really.
      - imprettycool 6y ago
        why
  - gkoberger 6y ago
    I think, for the sake of this article, you could consider Slack a household name. It doesn't mean everyone has heard of it, it just means "well-known". It's a publicly traded company, and I'd say the average person (especially in America) likely knows what it is. I guess I don't really watch many movies that delve into 21st-century office communication, but I imagine if I did their chat app would be modeled after Slack. Overall, though, this is a minor point compared to the rest of the article.
    - esoterica 6y ago
      I think the average white collar worker at a company with a trendy software stack knows what slack is, but that’s like 5% of the population. The average American definitely does not know what Slack is.
      - bryanrasmussen 6y ago
        I think more of the population might know what Church of the Subgenius Slack is than Slack the application.
    - oap 6y ago
      The average person definitely doesn't know. I've met wealthy people in their 20s in LA who don't know who Elon Musk is. Attention is hyper fractionalized. People know who Jeff Bezos is, people don't know Tim Cook.
wnevets 6y ago
>'Kay. Maybe in your household. I've used slack everyday for years and I have no idea who the founders are. I'll probably forget Stewart's name by tomorrow morning.
MattGaiser 6y ago
> Is this really a tech downturn? Yes, some companies are laying people off, with gig-economy things particularly hard hit, but the entire economy is a mess right now. It doesn't seem like tech is relatively more affected than other industries. If anything, tech seems more insulated. Where I am (Calgary), software engineering job postings seem to have grown. Granted, many of them are not that great jobs for companies that are mostly desperate to get back up and running, but work is there which is more than can be said for other fields. http://blog.indeed.com/2020/04/30/labor-market-spotlight-job-postings/ http://blog.indeed.com/2020/04/30/labor-market-spotlight-job... software is doing better than average.

toadi 6y ago

Totally don't get this article. Even in a downturn keep chipping away (maybe without funding). If you get lucky and you can belong to the 1% haves. Still fuck those 99% others because they are not working hard enough?

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

troughway 6y ago

After scrolling about 200vh or so for no good reason. >I remember feeling under a pall of gloom, going about with a dark cloud over my soul and tears in my eyes. A little bit melodramatic, but okay. >The disparity between America’s haves and have-nots has been laid bare. The inefficiency of our legislators has made us the laughing stock of the planet (so much so that an opinion writer at the Irish Times even felt pity for America). Everyone is entitled to their opinion, even The Irish Times. >Slack co-founder Stewart Butterfield might be a household name today Other comments covered this nonsense. >To be clear, those being laid off are previously pampered full-time employees and not the gig workers who are treated as disposables by these big companies. > Yes, the future is unknown and it is worrying, but pause for a minute and think about what the future of work looks like: less peer pressure and office politics, less need to run around looking pretty or showing up to show you’re there no need to chase crazy trends and shiny objects, and a lot less emphasis on working just to make sure people see you working. The latter statement can only apply to the former if the "You" is a "pampered full-time employee". Because I doubt the "gig workers" have seen what office politics look like. So then, what's the point of this statement? Rest of the article tries to imagine a future that ignores evolutionary biology, the need for people to connect through more than just a virtual presence, and proclaims we live in the past. Lastly the "have and have nots" bullshit tirade is nicely wrapped up by the author mentioning they're an angel investor for Slack.

bawolff 6y ago
Oh, the author is an angel investor in slack! I guess that explains the household name thing. I was originally just assuming some extreme version of living in the silicon valley filter bubble.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

bawolff 6y ago

> My bet is always-on broadband. Virtual worlds, digital entertainment, gaming …. None of it would be possible without broadband. Today, we have about 100-250 Mbps in most modern homes. In some places, you can get a gigabit per second. Now imagine what we could do if, in ten years, we all have 10 gigabits per second in our homes, and we have in-home networks that are fast and fat. Hmm. Kind of an interesting take. I predict the opposite. I think we have hit the diminishing returns on bandwidth. People don't even know what to do with residential internet in the 100mbps. We can stream HD video (both up and down)...what else is there. If there are no applications straining at bandwidth limits now, im not sure improving them will make new products. If anything i think the best gains are going to be in latency and in mobile bandwidth. Cheap high speed, no data cap, internet for cell phones would be pretty great. But still i'd consider that incremental. I think its unlikely the next big technology enabler will be the same as the last one. > In 2001, we imagined a 100 Mbps future — and we got Google, a nearly trillion-dollar company. Google was founded in 1998, and that was still the dial-up era. At the time, I was probably thinking a 1mbps future sounded pretty grand and couldn't imagine 100mbps. Heck my internet right now isn't even that fast.

jordanthoms 6y ago
I'd settle for IP-based video conferencing that actually works, 100% of the time. As far as I can tell the major issues with that now are more from WiFi - Bufferbloat is particularly bad there and interference causes small dropouts (run a ping to a local router in the background for a while, and you'll probably see jitter eventually). It's pretty noticeable here in New Zealand where most people are now on fiber connections with easily enough bandwidth and low latency - but video calling is still way harder than it should be.
- yomly 6y ago
  Are you talking about video chat within NZ or with rest of world? I imagine there's a fixed amount of latency with calling anyone in NZ due to speed of light...
  - fastball 6y ago

metrokoi 6y ago

Yes, the downturn may result in new technology and ideas, but almost all of them would have been possible without the pandemic. This article seems to be speculating a bit to find positives. Many of us are privileged to not be as worried about finances, but for the vast majority of Americans this is nothing like a snowday, as the author puts it. Some times are simply not as good as others, and that's okay.

adamcharnock 6y ago

> My bet is always-on broadband. Virtual worlds, digital entertainment, gaming …. None of it would be possible without broadband. Today, we have about 100-250 Mbps in most modern homes. I’m literally sat in a bank right now opening a bank account for my new ISP company [1], so this is nice to hear! I’m hoping to deliver speeds of around 100Mbit to the rather rural area of Portugal I live in. [1]: https://gardunha.net https://gardunha.net

joelbluminator 6y ago

Are we actually in the midst of a tech downturn though? I mean tech valuation are back to what they were pre corona pretty much. Did VC money completely dry up?

FartyMcFarter 6y ago
IBM has laid people off. Some companies like Uber, Lyft and Airbnb laid off a lot of tech people (even if the extent of their status as "tech" companies is questionable). Some governments are pledging support to startups, which is indicative of some trouble: https://sifted.eu/articles/startups-government-support/ https://sifted.eu/articles/startups-government-support/ Anecdotally, I'm also hearing that startups are having a hard time finding funding, which isn't surprising in the current cautious financial climate.
- joelbluminator 6y ago
  Yes, I hear the anecdotes as well. I guess a lot depends on what happens in the fall/winter corona-wise. If it declines and doesn't come back you could make the case for a relatively quick recovery.