3 ms·
It's not the same thing. > allowing a virus with R0 > 2 to plough through a population puts a very concrete time estimate on it. We know that the SARS-CoV-2 r
by majewsky 6y ago
It's not the same thing.
> allowing a virus with R0 > 2 to plough through a population
puts a very concrete time estimate on it. We know that the SARS-CoV-2 replicates every 4 days on average, so this scenario has a doubling of cases every 4 days. Starting from a single infected person, the US would become completely infected in roughly 120 days, i.e. they would roughly be done by this point or early next month, with all the consequences that entails. In contrast,
> the entire population to become infected (which will almost certainly happen anyway)
does not imply any specific timeline. It could happen in 30 days, it could happen in 30 weeks, it could happen in 30 years.