5 ms·

Anders Tegnell, some say the head of Swedish plan against COVID was recently on BBC HARDtalk. You can hear his views on the plan they implemented.

cygx 6y ago
Like the British numbers, the Swedish ones have yet to peak, and they are at 0.4/1000 fatalities (ie four times the German numbers I cited in my sibling comment). If your primary goal was prevention of loss of life, the Swedish approach doesn't look so hot either.
- cm2187 6y ago
  I am struggling to reconcile "the british numbers have yet to peak" with stories like that: https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-disappearing-so-fast-oxford-vaccine-has-only-50-chance-of-working-11993739 https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-disappearing-so-fast-... As for deaths, they have peaked in early April in England (see first spreadhseet "COVID 19 total announced deaths"): https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/ https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas...
  - cygx 6y ago
    I provided links plotting daily numbers for various countries in my other comment. Just compare https://covid.observer/gb/#daily https://covid.observer/se/#daily to eg https://covid.observer/it/#daily https://covid.observer/de/#daily There's also the possibility that numbers will essentially stabilize, eg https://covid.observer/fr/#daily https://covid.observer/es/#daily We don't know yet which way the UK will go, as the number of active cases is still growing.
    - cm2187 6y ago
      And it doesn't strike you that zero people recovered in the UK based on your chart...?
      - cygx 6y ago
        It's the Johns Hopkins University CSSE dataset, and recovered cases are indeed not properly tracked for some countries. But you can just look at the crude numbers of confirmed cases and fatalities to see that the situation in Germany and the UK follow different dynamics (cf this plot[1] of the new confirmed cases, though the difference is of course in part due to the testing rates), However, from looking at the daily fatality rates, you're right that the UK might indeed be already past the peak as well. [1] https://i.imgur.com/6YJ6op8.png https://i.imgur.com/6YJ6op8.png
        cm2187 6y ago
        All you are measuring with your chart is the late ramp up in testing in the UK. Deaths is a much more reliable indicator.
  - DanBC 6y ago
    From your spreadsheet: "This file contains information on the deaths of patients who have died in hospitals in England and have tested positive for Covid-19. All deaths were reported during the period specified below and are recorded against the date of death rather than the day the deaths were announced." It doesn't include people dying in nursing homes. It doesn't include people dying in care homes. It doesn't include people dying in supported or sheltered accommodation. It doesn't include people dying in prisons. It doesn't include people dying in their own homes. From research we think care home deaths are a significant fraction of the total (between 30% to 50%), although we need more information. We stopped transferring people from care homes to hospitals. We put them on palliative pathways instead of transferring them to ICUs.
- umanwizard 6y ago
  You can’t know whether the lockdown saved lives until after you see whether countries that locked down have another wave of deaths after reopening. It’s possible that Britain only delayed deaths by a few months, which is why they currently look better than Sweden.
- jeltz 6y ago
  Why do you think Swedish numbers has yet had to peak? As far as I can tell they peaked in first half of April when the infection peaked in Stockholm and since then it has been bad but stable. We might see a smaller peak now in the end of May when it peaks in Gothenburg.
- CuriousSkeptic 6y ago
  The primary plan was to keep the load on the health care system within capacity. Preventing loss of life due to insufficient availability of health care. Which according to the models looked like the major contributing factor that could be controlled.
  - ianai 6y ago
    The primary plan was to do the absolute only thing available against the virus: social distance. We have no other way to fight it than to starve it out with 14 day quarantines and other social distancing tactics. No other motive is needed when you’ve only got “one bullet in the chamber” that’s the bullet you’re going to fire.
    - giantDinosaur 6y ago
      There's another method: masks. Making them mandatory seems likely to have real, significant effects. It seems almost impossible to make them mandatory in western countries without absolutely massive cause, though.
      - ianai 6y ago
        That’s what I thought too but michael osterholm‘s recent comments led me to believe masks are ineffective.

cygx 6y ago

Like the British numbers, the Swedish ones have yet to peak, and they are at 0.4/1000 fatalities (ie four times the German numbers I cited in my sibling comment). If your primary goal was prevention of loss of life, the Swedish approach doesn't look so hot either.

cm2187 6y ago
I am struggling to reconcile "the british numbers have yet to peak" with stories like that: https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-disappearing-so-fast-oxford-vaccine-has-only-50-chance-of-working-11993739 https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-disappearing-so-fast-... As for deaths, they have peaked in early April in England (see first spreadhseet "COVID 19 total announced deaths"): https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/ https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas...
- cygx 6y ago
  I provided links plotting daily numbers for various countries in my other comment. Just compare https://covid.observer/gb/#daily https://covid.observer/se/#daily to eg https://covid.observer/it/#daily https://covid.observer/de/#daily There's also the possibility that numbers will essentially stabilize, eg https://covid.observer/fr/#daily https://covid.observer/es/#daily We don't know yet which way the UK will go, as the number of active cases is still growing.
  - cm2187 6y ago
    And it doesn't strike you that zero people recovered in the UK based on your chart...?
    - cygx 6y ago
      It's the Johns Hopkins University CSSE dataset, and recovered cases are indeed not properly tracked for some countries. But you can just look at the crude numbers of confirmed cases and fatalities to see that the situation in Germany and the UK follow different dynamics (cf this plot[1] of the new confirmed cases, though the difference is of course in part due to the testing rates), However, from looking at the daily fatality rates, you're right that the UK might indeed be already past the peak as well. [1] https://i.imgur.com/6YJ6op8.png https://i.imgur.com/6YJ6op8.png
      - cm2187 6y ago
        All you are measuring with your chart is the late ramp up in testing in the UK. Deaths is a much more reliable indicator.
- DanBC 6y ago
  From your spreadsheet: "This file contains information on the deaths of patients who have died in hospitals in England and have tested positive for Covid-19. All deaths were reported during the period specified below and are recorded against the date of death rather than the day the deaths were announced." It doesn't include people dying in nursing homes. It doesn't include people dying in care homes. It doesn't include people dying in supported or sheltered accommodation. It doesn't include people dying in prisons. It doesn't include people dying in their own homes. From research we think care home deaths are a significant fraction of the total (between 30% to 50%), although we need more information. We stopped transferring people from care homes to hospitals. We put them on palliative pathways instead of transferring them to ICUs.
umanwizard 6y ago
You can’t know whether the lockdown saved lives until after you see whether countries that locked down have another wave of deaths after reopening. It’s possible that Britain only delayed deaths by a few months, which is why they currently look better than Sweden.
jeltz 6y ago
Why do you think Swedish numbers has yet had to peak? As far as I can tell they peaked in first half of April when the infection peaked in Stockholm and since then it has been bad but stable. We might see a smaller peak now in the end of May when it peaks in Gothenburg.
CuriousSkeptic 6y ago
The primary plan was to keep the load on the health care system within capacity. Preventing loss of life due to insufficient availability of health care. Which according to the models looked like the major contributing factor that could be controlled.
- ianai 6y ago
  The primary plan was to do the absolute only thing available against the virus: social distance. We have no other way to fight it than to starve it out with 14 day quarantines and other social distancing tactics. No other motive is needed when you’ve only got “one bullet in the chamber” that’s the bullet you’re going to fire.
  - giantDinosaur 6y ago
    There's another method: masks. Making them mandatory seems likely to have real, significant effects. It seems almost impossible to make them mandatory in western countries without absolutely massive cause, though.
    - ianai 6y ago
      That’s what I thought too but michael osterholm‘s recent comments led me to believe masks are ineffective.