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This article from The Scientist provides an overview of why it happened in a rabbit population: https://www.the-scientist.com/features/do-pathogens-gain-virulen
by notadog 6y ago
This article from The Scientist provides an overview of why it happened in a rabbit population: https://www.the-scientist.com/features/do-pathogens-gain-virulence-as-hosts-become-more-resistant-30219 https://www.the-scientist.com/features/do-pathogens-gain-vir...
> The question Fenner asked was: What happens when such a virulent virus spreads through a very susceptible host species on a continental scale? He focused on two possibilities. First, the highly lethal virus might evolve to become less lethal. Second, the highly susceptible rabbits might evolve resistance. Thanks to Fenner, we now know both happened.
> The work showed that the almost invariably lethal progenitor virus strain was replaced within a few years by strains with case fatality rates of 70 percent to 95 percent. Some field isolates killed fewer than half the lab rabbits. Over the next few decades, things settled down, and strains at both ends of the lethality spectrum become increasingly difficult to find. Fenner showed why. The highly lethal progenitor virus killed rabbits so fast that its infectious period was shorter than that of the less lethal viral mutants. That meant that the less lethal strains were able to infect more new victims and spread throughout the population.
- dehrmann 6y agoI'm not sure if the same thing would apply to a virus that's 0.1-0.5% lethal. Since this is through natural selection, what we're selecting the virus for right now is strains that spread at long distances and through face masks, strains that spread well in a household, and strains that spread will for certain occupations.
- tigershark 6y agoWhich virus are you speaking about? From the study in Spain with 70000 people covid has a mortality of 1.15%, looking at New York antibody test the mortality is at around 1.5% counting the excess deaths, looking at South Korea that detected pretty much every case the mortality is 2.3%. So in no plausible scenario covid-19 has a 0.1%/0.5% mortality.
- bhouston 6y agoHere is a link to some meta-analysis that suggests differently. Note that this is a twitter discussion with an epidemiologist, David Fisman. https://twitter.com/BenHouston3D/status/1260194923816550400?s=19 https://twitter.com/BenHouston3D/status/1260194923816550400?...
- bhouston 6y agoAnd for not showing symptoms for as long as possible, which if it never shows symptoms is the perfect spreader ...