3 ms·

Counterexample: pubs reopened this past weekend in NZ and every venue was at capacity. No tourists, but increased domestic consumption. This will obviously be

by 2019-nCoV 6y ago

Counterexample: pubs reopened this past weekend in NZ and every venue was at capacity. No tourists, but increased domestic consumption. This will obviously be more pronounced in countries with a greater historic discrepancy between tourism expenditure and receipts. e.g. Spain will no doubt be more effected than NZ, whereas the UK could actually benefit: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ST.INT.XPND.CD?end=2018&locations=NZ-GB-ES&start=1995&view=chart https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ST.INT.XPND.CD?end=2018... https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ST.INT.RCPT.CD?end=2018&locations=NZ-GB-ES&start=1995&view=chart https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ST.INT.RCPT.CD?end=2018...

Gibbon1 6y ago
Yeah but unlike the US it's possible the the virus is no longer present in NZ.
- 2019-nCoV 6y ago
  That's thinking too macro. The virus will plausibly be eliminated in the US gradually, e.g. French red/green zones.
  - dan-robertson 6y ago
    Red/green zones or just about any partial/segregated lockdown seems likely to not work. Being in a red zone is worse than being in a green zone so people are incentivised to move from red zones to green zones (if they can). This is not what you want. It seems hard to restrict movement or enforce a strict quarantine in countries that are generally not planned to support restricting movement across internal boundaries.
  - Gibbon1 6y ago
    The longer it's allowed to persist the more social and economic damage.
  - dehrmann 6y ago
    I doubt this. It was spreading the Bay Area in late December. The first reported case with local transmission was in late February. That said, we weren't really looking for it, but without incredibly widespread testing, they best we can do is keep it lurking in the background.
Izkata 6y ago
> and every venue was at capacity. No tourists, but increased domestic consumption. I can't help but wonder if we're gonna have another century repeat: After the Spanish Flu came the Roaring Twenties.
- FuckButtons 6y ago
  And then right around the corner is World War III.
  - gshdg 6y ago
    Don’t forget an enormous economic depression in between...

Gibbon1 6y ago

Yeah but unlike the US it's possible the the virus is no longer present in NZ.

2019-nCoV 6y ago
That's thinking too macro. The virus will plausibly be eliminated in the US gradually, e.g. French red/green zones.
- dan-robertson 6y ago
  Red/green zones or just about any partial/segregated lockdown seems likely to not work. Being in a red zone is worse than being in a green zone so people are incentivised to move from red zones to green zones (if they can). This is not what you want. It seems hard to restrict movement or enforce a strict quarantine in countries that are generally not planned to support restricting movement across internal boundaries.
- Gibbon1 6y ago
  The longer it's allowed to persist the more social and economic damage.
- dehrmann 6y ago
  I doubt this. It was spreading the Bay Area in late December. The first reported case with local transmission was in late February. That said, we weren't really looking for it, but without incredibly widespread testing, they best we can do is keep it lurking in the background.

Izkata 6y ago

> and every venue was at capacity. No tourists, but increased domestic consumption. I can't help but wonder if we're gonna have another century repeat: After the Spanish Flu came the Roaring Twenties.

FuckButtons 6y ago
And then right around the corner is World War III.
- gshdg 6y ago
  Don’t forget an enormous economic depression in between...