4 ms·

I have (both my parents died from cancer in their 50s). How is this related to this topic? Lockdown or not, crowding and not wearing a mask is irresponsible - y

by fcurts 6y ago

I have (both my parents died from cancer in their 50s). How is this related to this topic? Lockdown or not, crowding and not wearing a mask is irresponsible - you aren't just putting yourself at risk, but also the people around you.

ACow_Adonis 6y ago
It's relevant because we currently have two sides going at each other raising irresponsible levels of hyperbole, virtue/team- signaling and fear mongering on both sides, just in different directions. Covid is simultaneously currently worse than the flu, but on the order of genuine avoidable human suffering it SHOULD have (and should still) be treated rationally: isolating and protecting the most vulnerable, practicing good hygiene, a moment to reflect on our lifestyles, policies and our self imposed diseases that make us more vulnerable to the virus. It has a mortality function that, statistically, correlates most strongly with a person's already existing X year survival probability. If you plotted out the frequency of ages and deaths over time, it would primarily register as a small blip/compressing of deaths primarily amongst the older. People who go off on the other end of the spectrum: that this should be the end of society/ socialising, commerce/trade and public life, are just as ridiculous and irresponsible as those who think nothing should be fine, because they illicit fear, partisanship, and stop our finite resources being spent where they do most good, not to mention the harm that's going to come from all the poorly targeted reactions. In this case it's an opportunity to drop the hyperbole and rationally visit how we deal with healthcare and end of life, because how we deal with the elderly already, especially our experiences with those illnesses I mentioned, are qualitatively worse than the experience of dying relatively quickly from covid, but we accept it because it was "part of the everyday" (or in a lot of societies, deliberately excluded from the everyday so we don't think about it too much).
- fzeroracer 6y ago
  I keep seeing this idea that people are demanding the lockdown last forever and everything should be over, but it seems to primarily come from people using it as an attempt to seem rational by taking a standpoint in the perceived middle rather than any sort of reality. The actual reality is that one side wants people to wear masks and gradually open up in a safe manner because other places that opened up irresponsibly were hit by a second wave of infections. The other side takes mask wearing as fascism and will do literally everything in their power to harass people who wear masks or attempt to bypass the requirement for the sake of making themselves feel better. You calling COVID19 a cakewake is irresponsible hyperbole in itself considering it is dangerous and we should not be under any delusion that it is not. But it is manageable if people don't operate under delusion.
- uoaei 6y ago
  The rest of your comment is valuable commentary but I want to point out that > If you plotted out the frequency of ages and deaths over time, it would primarily register as a small blip/compressing of deaths primarily amongst the older. is not strictly true. In certain regions, NYC as an example[1], you have to look at excess mortality, or the number of deaths that are in excess of expectations given a periodic seasonal model. In some areas the number is much, much higher than normal. It's not enough to read off the reported deaths because there are many more that are attributed to other causes. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e5.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e5.htm
  - leoedin 6y ago
    I think the point the parent was making is that many of the people who died in the last 2 months would likely have died in the next year anyway - so although there's clearly high numbers of excess deaths today, we may actually find that many of those deaths are just brought forward by 6 months. We won't know whether that's true for years though.

by fcurts 6y ago

ACow_Adonis 6y ago

It's relevant because we currently have two sides going at each other raising irresponsible levels of hyperbole, virtue/team- signaling and fear mongering on both sides, just in different directions. Covid is simultaneously currently worse than the flu, but on the order of genuine avoidable human suffering it SHOULD have (and should still) be treated rationally: isolating and protecting the most vulnerable, practicing good hygiene, a moment to reflect on our lifestyles, policies and our self imposed diseases that make us more vulnerable to the virus. It has a mortality function that, statistically, correlates most strongly with a person's already existing X year survival probability. If you plotted out the frequency of ages and deaths over time, it would primarily register as a small blip/compressing of deaths primarily amongst the older. People who go off on the other end of the spectrum: that this should be the end of society/ socialising, commerce/trade and public life, are just as ridiculous and irresponsible as those who think nothing should be fine, because they illicit fear, partisanship, and stop our finite resources being spent where they do most good, not to mention the harm that's going to come from all the poorly targeted reactions. In this case it's an opportunity to drop the hyperbole and rationally visit how we deal with healthcare and end of life, because how we deal with the elderly already, especially our experiences with those illnesses I mentioned, are qualitatively worse than the experience of dying relatively quickly from covid, but we accept it because it was "part of the everyday" (or in a lot of societies, deliberately excluded from the everyday so we don't think about it too much).

fzeroracer 6y ago
I keep seeing this idea that people are demanding the lockdown last forever and everything should be over, but it seems to primarily come from people using it as an attempt to seem rational by taking a standpoint in the perceived middle rather than any sort of reality. The actual reality is that one side wants people to wear masks and gradually open up in a safe manner because other places that opened up irresponsibly were hit by a second wave of infections. The other side takes mask wearing as fascism and will do literally everything in their power to harass people who wear masks or attempt to bypass the requirement for the sake of making themselves feel better. You calling COVID19 a cakewake is irresponsible hyperbole in itself considering it is dangerous and we should not be under any delusion that it is not. But it is manageable if people don't operate under delusion.
uoaei 6y ago
The rest of your comment is valuable commentary but I want to point out that > If you plotted out the frequency of ages and deaths over time, it would primarily register as a small blip/compressing of deaths primarily amongst the older. is not strictly true. In certain regions, NYC as an example[1], you have to look at excess mortality, or the number of deaths that are in excess of expectations given a periodic seasonal model. In some areas the number is much, much higher than normal. It's not enough to read off the reported deaths because there are many more that are attributed to other causes. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e5.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e5.htm
- leoedin 6y ago
  I think the point the parent was making is that many of the people who died in the last 2 months would likely have died in the next year anyway - so although there's clearly high numbers of excess deaths today, we may actually find that many of those deaths are just brought forward by 6 months. We won't know whether that's true for years though.