4 ms·

Creating the incentive is still a problem though. If a certain percentage of those people require hospitalization, then you have a limited capacity for how many

Creating the incentive is still a problem though. If a certain percentage of those people require hospitalization, then you have a limited capacity for how many people can voluntarily infect themselves. The best case scenario would be that infections are successfully rationed, and you end up with a government imposed class system of immune/not-immune. The more likely scenario is that you can’t effectively control voluntary infection, and create the serious risk of running out of hospital beds. And that’s really just the logistical challenge, putting aside a number of other ethical concerns, which include the government saying “in order to regain your liberty, you must infect yourself with a deadly virus”.

remote_phone 6y ago
35% are completely asymptomatic, 45% have mild symptoms, 15% need hospitalization and 2-3% die, mostly old people. Set up a hotel in Vegas with 3000 rooms, 450 ICU beds. Start with people under 30 years old. Have people get infected with a weakened version of the virus. In the first 1 or 2 iterations of people, measure the antibodies in each person, and do a test for how long people are contagious for. We STILL don’t know this for a fact. Also measure how long it takes for people to become immune. Do tests like figure out which people are more susceptible to severe symptoms or which people are more likely to have asymptomatic symptoms. Again, we STILL don’t know this. Cycle the asymptomatic and non-contagious people out first and keep doing it until the ICU beds are full. As an ICU bed becomes empty add the appropriate number of people into the test to get them infected. This seems ethical to me. I bet a lot of younger people would be willing to do this especially if their chance of death is 0.1% or lower and they can go back to work sooner. Once we gather valuable data from this, then move up in terms of risk and keep going until we have herd immunity. I’m almost 50, with a few comorbidities but if I knew I would get a weakened version of the virus with dedicated bed and top health care, not only would I volunteer but I would also pay for it out of my own pocket. I’m sick of being afraid and part of the fear is the lack of understanding and misinformation that is being spread. We need science To answer a lot of questions but they aren’t very helpful right now, or at least they aren’t answering the questions we need. We need volunteers to get themselves infected so that we understand what is going on with this virus. if we can do this in a predictable and safe way and allow science to learn from it it’s a win win. We need to stop worrying about ethics especially if people are willing to volunteer themselves.
- rglullis 6y ago
  Isn't a "weakened version of the virus" basically a vaccine?
- HarryHirsch 6y ago
  15% need hospitalization Trust me, you don't want to belong to that group. The reason you are in hospital is that you have serious pneumonia for weeks and may walk out with permanently reduced lung function. Have you seen Boris Johnson before and after?
- jonatron 6y ago
  If you look at the data for UK week ending 8 May, https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending8may2020 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsde... People aged 45-49 make up 0.66% of covid deaths. 86.34% of covid deaths are people aged over 70. UK life expectancy is 81.
- AmericanChopper 6y ago
  This doesn't actually address either of the points I raised. You still have to ration infection. You still create a government imposed class system. You still have your liberty dependant on whether or not you allow the government to infect you with a deadly virus. Even putting aside the myriad of ethical reasons that this is a bad idea. Your solution still doesn't have a way to deal with your non-immune class members seeking out infection because they can't/don't want to wait for their government virus ration.
rglullis 6y ago
Yeah, I am well aware of the ethical issues and honestly I know that what I proposed has countless ways of backfiring somehow. I would only seriously propose such a thing for those that really want to get out of the isolation measures and for those business owners that worry more about their pockets than human life. For instance, in my proposal people really would not leave the hotel until cleared. If hospitalization were needed, it would be to the hotel owner to provide a section of the rooms to be equipped, and bear the costs of it. Voluntarily infected => No hospital bed for you.

remote_phone 6y ago

35% are completely asymptomatic, 45% have mild symptoms, 15% need hospitalization and 2-3% die, mostly old people. Set up a hotel in Vegas with 3000 rooms, 450 ICU beds. Start with people under 30 years old. Have people get infected with a weakened version of the virus. In the first 1 or 2 iterations of people, measure the antibodies in each person, and do a test for how long people are contagious for. We STILL don’t know this for a fact. Also measure how long it takes for people to become immune. Do tests like figure out which people are more susceptible to severe symptoms or which people are more likely to have asymptomatic symptoms. Again, we STILL don’t know this. Cycle the asymptomatic and non-contagious people out first and keep doing it until the ICU beds are full. As an ICU bed becomes empty add the appropriate number of people into the test to get them infected. This seems ethical to me. I bet a lot of younger people would be willing to do this especially if their chance of death is 0.1% or lower and they can go back to work sooner. Once we gather valuable data from this, then move up in terms of risk and keep going until we have herd immunity. I’m almost 50, with a few comorbidities but if I knew I would get a weakened version of the virus with dedicated bed and top health care, not only would I volunteer but I would also pay for it out of my own pocket. I’m sick of being afraid and part of the fear is the lack of understanding and misinformation that is being spread. We need science To answer a lot of questions but they aren’t very helpful right now, or at least they aren’t answering the questions we need. We need volunteers to get themselves infected so that we understand what is going on with this virus. if we can do this in a predictable and safe way and allow science to learn from it it’s a win win. We need to stop worrying about ethics especially if people are willing to volunteer themselves.

rglullis 6y ago
Isn't a "weakened version of the virus" basically a vaccine?
HarryHirsch 6y ago
15% need hospitalization Trust me, you don't want to belong to that group. The reason you are in hospital is that you have serious pneumonia for weeks and may walk out with permanently reduced lung function. Have you seen Boris Johnson before and after?
jonatron 6y ago
If you look at the data for UK week ending 8 May, https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending8may2020 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsde... People aged 45-49 make up 0.66% of covid deaths. 86.34% of covid deaths are people aged over 70. UK life expectancy is 81.
AmericanChopper 6y ago
This doesn't actually address either of the points I raised. You still have to ration infection. You still create a government imposed class system. You still have your liberty dependant on whether or not you allow the government to infect you with a deadly virus. Even putting aside the myriad of ethical reasons that this is a bad idea. Your solution still doesn't have a way to deal with your non-immune class members seeking out infection because they can't/don't want to wait for their government virus ration.

rglullis 6y ago

Yeah, I am well aware of the ethical issues and honestly I know that what I proposed has countless ways of backfiring somehow. I would only seriously propose such a thing for those that really want to get out of the isolation measures and for those business owners that worry more about their pockets than human life. For instance, in my proposal people really would not leave the hotel until cleared. If hospitalization were needed, it would be to the hotel owner to provide a section of the rooms to be equipped, and bear the costs of it. Voluntarily infected => No hospital bed for you.