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"Experts are also credited with creating an easy-to-understand message of avoiding what are called the “Three C’s” -- closed spaces, crowded spaces and close-co

"Experts are also credited with creating an easy-to-understand message of avoiding what are called the “Three C’s” -- closed spaces, crowded spaces and close-contact settings" This makes sense. In the US and other countries, people have become obsessed with things like runners not wearing masks or people gathering at beaches or washing their groceries, but all of those things are extremely low risk. Evidence keeps piling up that outdoor transmission is very difficult and surface transmission is remarkably unlikely. The primary way to spread a virus via droplet transmissions is to spend a sustained amount of time around lots of other people in an indoor space. That accounts for virtually all of the super-spreader events and avoiding these activities is likely responsible for the vast majority of the reduction in the transmission rate during these lockdowns. I think we're gradually moving towards a system of restrictions based on universal mask wearing when indoors and avoiding crowded indoor spaces altogether. Most other restrictions are likely not necessary to keep the transmission rate low enough to avert catastrophe.

jnbiche 6y ago
> The primary way to spread a virus via droplet transmissions is to spend a sustained amount of time around lots of other people in an indoor space In some ways, very similar to TB, although a much shorter exposure time is sufficient for transmission.
- londons_explore 6y ago
  Who'd have thought that two diseases that mostly infect the lungs might have similar transmission routes...
  - jnbiche 6y ago
    I'm sure you think that's clever but there are plenty of respiratory diseases that don't require sustained contact. Measles, for example. The point is sustained contact, not the route of transmission.
beamatronic 6y ago
Schools will have to be outdoors-only when they reopen in the fall. This will work great, for a while.
- xboxnolifes 6y ago
  Outdoor only schools will never happen in the majority of areas.
- standardUser 6y ago
  More time outdoors instead of indoors is always better. In Denmark, things like teacher meetings are supposed to be outdoors now, and there's rules around picking up and dropping off kids outside. But for kids n class, a primary strategy places have used when reopening is to have kids stick with the same group of ~10 everyday. In Denmark, they used museums and other public places as overflow classrooms to keep class sizes extra small.
- ls612 6y ago
  Winter will make short work of that plan.
cameldrv 6y ago
One thing that would help a lot would be to dramatically improve ventilation in indoor spaces. What makes outdoor spaces safer is that air does not linger. A few options seem possible: 1. Weather and building permitting, open all of the windows. 2. Install a high efficiency filter (Probably MERV 14 or better is needed). This probably requires upgrading blower fans in the HVAC system. 3. Install the highest MERV filter that the system can support, and supplement this with a UV-C disinfection system inside the air handler. In general you need pretty powerful UV-C lights in the air handler to destroy viruses as they're passing through the system, but these are commercially available (https://www.johnsoncontrols.com/-/media/jci/be/united-states/airside-systems/air-handling-units/files/be_appguide_uvclight_ahu.pdf https://www.johnsoncontrols.com/-/media/jci/be/united-states...) 4. Bring in more fresh air, possibly by changing HVAC settings, possibly install a contraflow heat exchanger to recover heat/cooling as air is exchanged. 5. Install portable HEPA type filters. You will need a lot.
- rurban 6y ago
  Ventilation is a bigger risk, if the air is too dry. You cannot filter out the 3nm viri. What you really need are air humidifiers.
blub 6y ago
Yes, indoor spaces are awful, but I don't have the feeling that the politicians and the specialists advising them are grasping this yet. The bullshit 1.5m rule is alive and well in Germany and there were recently two outbreaks in closed spaces (restaurant + church). "Evidence keeps piling up that outdoor transmission is very difficult and surface transmission is remarkably unlikely" Where's the evidence and what does "unlikely" mean in percentages? AFAIK there's in fact zero evidence about anything regarding outdoor or surface transmission, because for some reason no one's testing relevant scenarios like "how long does the virus survive on fruit?" and instead they're making guesses worth exactly jack shit.
- tinus_hn 6y ago
  One thing that is quite obvious is that the camps where refugees live closely together in squalid tents are a safer place to be than nursing homes.
mercer 6y ago
I was already a bit worried about the game-plan that the Dutch government presented. From what I understand, from June 1st on (or 2nd or so?) many venues, including bars, can open again with x amount of people per m2, and a maximum of 30 people. A rather tepid 'keep 1.5m distance' is added, as well as an even more tepid "if you're from the same household you can sit at the same tables", or however that will be implemented in practice. I'm more worried now that I read that I'm not the only one who suspects that people spending prolonged periods of time together are the main cause of the spread of Covid-19. To me it seems ridiculous to think that 1.5m distance will magically make thing work. Even in supermarket every single visit I all but bump into others. But there's very little spittle from talking or coughing, so I imagine the risk is much lower. At this point what I hope for is that summertime will make a big difference, and that perhaps my government knows this and is crafting a 'public' message that just doesn't paint the full picture. But honestly, much as I think we in NL have done pretty okay (middling, really), at this point I expect we'll have at the very least a 'second wave' and probably end up in the middle of death statistics for that too. I kind of wish we'd try to do a bit better and follow the example of, I think, some countries in Asia, and just assume that things will be different now, and adjust how our society interacts in some basic ways. Core to that would be: - wear face masks. anything where a cough doesn't douse a lighter is 'good enough'. - make testing a regular, common thing. take temperatures every time you show up at work. - rigorously limit the distance between people in bars, cafe's, public transport, shops, etc. I think we're doing okay on this front in most shops I've gone too: a fixed number of trolleys or carts, and people wait if they run out. Just last week I waited for ~20 mins at a second hand store. - be as lenient as possible for those outside. it does a lot to take the pressure off, and the risk seems relatively low. - for the love of God, don't let up to 30 people in an enclosed, badly ventilated space, and don't make an exception for people who claim that "they're flatmates/partners". One can dream.
- koheripbal 6y ago
  > an even more tepid "if you're from the same household you can sit at the same tables" This makes perfect sense. Imagine asking parents to sit at separate tables from their children. If kids in a home are infected - trust me - everyone in that house is infected. Have you ever tried to social distance from a 3 year old?
kjaftaedi 6y ago
I was doing some data comparison and found what I felt was a strong correlation between the hardest hit areas and annual metro ridership. The differences in numbers are quite large. (For example NYC is twice the size of LA, but manages 7x the amount of subway riders.) Using this model, the differences showed that the data isn't just reflecting general population size / city density.

jnbiche 6y ago

> The primary way to spread a virus via droplet transmissions is to spend a sustained amount of time around lots of other people in an indoor space In some ways, very similar to TB, although a much shorter exposure time is sufficient for transmission.

londons_explore 6y ago
Who'd have thought that two diseases that mostly infect the lungs might have similar transmission routes...
- jnbiche 6y ago
  I'm sure you think that's clever but there are plenty of respiratory diseases that don't require sustained contact. Measles, for example. The point is sustained contact, not the route of transmission.

beamatronic 6y ago

Schools will have to be outdoors-only when they reopen in the fall. This will work great, for a while.

xboxnolifes 6y ago
Outdoor only schools will never happen in the majority of areas.
standardUser 6y ago
More time outdoors instead of indoors is always better. In Denmark, things like teacher meetings are supposed to be outdoors now, and there's rules around picking up and dropping off kids outside. But for kids n class, a primary strategy places have used when reopening is to have kids stick with the same group of ~10 everyday. In Denmark, they used museums and other public places as overflow classrooms to keep class sizes extra small.
ls612 6y ago
Winter will make short work of that plan.

cameldrv 6y ago

One thing that would help a lot would be to dramatically improve ventilation in indoor spaces. What makes outdoor spaces safer is that air does not linger. A few options seem possible: 1. Weather and building permitting, open all of the windows. 2. Install a high efficiency filter (Probably MERV 14 or better is needed). This probably requires upgrading blower fans in the HVAC system. 3. Install the highest MERV filter that the system can support, and supplement this with a UV-C disinfection system inside the air handler. In general you need pretty powerful UV-C lights in the air handler to destroy viruses as they're passing through the system, but these are commercially available (https://www.johnsoncontrols.com/-/media/jci/be/united-states/airside-systems/air-handling-units/files/be_appguide_uvclight_ahu.pdf https://www.johnsoncontrols.com/-/media/jci/be/united-states...) 4. Bring in more fresh air, possibly by changing HVAC settings, possibly install a contraflow heat exchanger to recover heat/cooling as air is exchanged. 5. Install portable HEPA type filters. You will need a lot.

rurban 6y ago
Ventilation is a bigger risk, if the air is too dry. You cannot filter out the 3nm viri. What you really need are air humidifiers.

blub 6y ago

Yes, indoor spaces are awful, but I don't have the feeling that the politicians and the specialists advising them are grasping this yet. The bullshit 1.5m rule is alive and well in Germany and there were recently two outbreaks in closed spaces (restaurant + church). "Evidence keeps piling up that outdoor transmission is very difficult and surface transmission is remarkably unlikely" Where's the evidence and what does "unlikely" mean in percentages? AFAIK there's in fact zero evidence about anything regarding outdoor or surface transmission, because for some reason no one's testing relevant scenarios like "how long does the virus survive on fruit?" and instead they're making guesses worth exactly jack shit.

tinus_hn 6y ago
One thing that is quite obvious is that the camps where refugees live closely together in squalid tents are a safer place to be than nursing homes.

mercer 6y ago

I was already a bit worried about the game-plan that the Dutch government presented. From what I understand, from June 1st on (or 2nd or so?) many venues, including bars, can open again with x amount of people per m2, and a maximum of 30 people. A rather tepid 'keep 1.5m distance' is added, as well as an even more tepid "if you're from the same household you can sit at the same tables", or however that will be implemented in practice. I'm more worried now that I read that I'm not the only one who suspects that people spending prolonged periods of time together are the main cause of the spread of Covid-19. To me it seems ridiculous to think that 1.5m distance will magically make thing work. Even in supermarket every single visit I all but bump into others. But there's very little spittle from talking or coughing, so I imagine the risk is much lower. At this point what I hope for is that summertime will make a big difference, and that perhaps my government knows this and is crafting a 'public' message that just doesn't paint the full picture. But honestly, much as I think we in NL have done pretty okay (middling, really), at this point I expect we'll have at the very least a 'second wave' and probably end up in the middle of death statistics for that too. I kind of wish we'd try to do a bit better and follow the example of, I think, some countries in Asia, and just assume that things will be different now, and adjust how our society interacts in some basic ways. Core to that would be: - wear face masks. anything where a cough doesn't douse a lighter is 'good enough'. - make testing a regular, common thing. take temperatures every time you show up at work. - rigorously limit the distance between people in bars, cafe's, public transport, shops, etc. I think we're doing okay on this front in most shops I've gone too: a fixed number of trolleys or carts, and people wait if they run out. Just last week I waited for ~20 mins at a second hand store. - be as lenient as possible for those outside. it does a lot to take the pressure off, and the risk seems relatively low. - for the love of God, don't let up to 30 people in an enclosed, badly ventilated space, and don't make an exception for people who claim that "they're flatmates/partners". One can dream.

koheripbal 6y ago
> an even more tepid "if you're from the same household you can sit at the same tables" This makes perfect sense. Imagine asking parents to sit at separate tables from their children. If kids in a home are infected - trust me - everyone in that house is infected. Have you ever tried to social distance from a 3 year old?

kjaftaedi 6y ago

I was doing some data comparison and found what I felt was a strong correlation between the hardest hit areas and annual metro ridership. The differences in numbers are quite large. (For example NYC is twice the size of LA, but manages 7x the amount of subway riders.) Using this model, the differences showed that the data isn't just reflecting general population size / city density.