3 ms·

So in short no one knows why it didn’t hit Japan harder, but they suspect Cultural factors (mask wearing, speaking distance, etc.), along with potentially genet

So in short no one knows why it didn’t hit Japan harder, but they suspect Cultural factors (mask wearing, speaking distance, etc.), along with potentially genetic factors (fewer comorbities, possibly a different strain of the virus). The possibility of a distinctly less virulent or less severe strain of the virus seems very interesting to me. It would contribute to the story of how so many Asian countries contained the disease so successfully while Europe struggled. It would also fit the much less severe spread in the US west coast (introduced via Asia) versus the northeast (introduced via Europe).

gizmo 6y ago
Japan is certainly exposed to all strains because of air travel in the first couple of months. So if there is a less virulent strain it would lose to the more virulent strains out there. Europe as a whole didn't struggle. Just look at eastern Europe or Greece or Portugal. Only parts of Europe struggled, and specifically those parts that reacted in the worst possible way, by e.g. putting sick people in nursing homes. In the US it's the same story. Most states are doing fine, and a few states royally f'd up.
- mikem170 6y ago
  Virulence describes a pathogens severity or infectiousness. It is possible that a more infectious and less severe strain of the coronavirus could explain different outcomes in the east and west. There are a number of different strains out there. Studies involving gene sequencing to identify strains and outcomes across different populations would be necessary to prove this one way or the other. It could be that a solution to this would be to vaccinate people with the mild strain (as advocated by some learned people).
  - gizmo 6y ago
    It's not inconceivable, but it would be a very convenient coincidence. I take it this less harmful strain also got to Greece, Belarus, Morocco, Bolivia, and Florida? Outperformance in Asia is much better explained by partial immunity created by prior exposure to SARS/MERS. But even that doesn't explain why regions all over the world are hardly affected by covid19, including those that didn't have prior SARS/MERS exposure. Data strongly suggests that this coronavirus is seasonal just like other coronaviruses and not especially deadly so Controlled Voluntary Infection shouldn't even be necessary (but it would work).

gizmo 6y ago

Japan is certainly exposed to all strains because of air travel in the first couple of months. So if there is a less virulent strain it would lose to the more virulent strains out there. Europe as a whole didn't struggle. Just look at eastern Europe or Greece or Portugal. Only parts of Europe struggled, and specifically those parts that reacted in the worst possible way, by e.g. putting sick people in nursing homes. In the US it's the same story. Most states are doing fine, and a few states royally f'd up.

mikem170 6y ago
Virulence describes a pathogens severity or infectiousness. It is possible that a more infectious and less severe strain of the coronavirus could explain different outcomes in the east and west. There are a number of different strains out there. Studies involving gene sequencing to identify strains and outcomes across different populations would be necessary to prove this one way or the other. It could be that a solution to this would be to vaccinate people with the mild strain (as advocated by some learned people).
- gizmo 6y ago
  It's not inconceivable, but it would be a very convenient coincidence. I take it this less harmful strain also got to Greece, Belarus, Morocco, Bolivia, and Florida? Outperformance in Asia is much better explained by partial immunity created by prior exposure to SARS/MERS. But even that doesn't explain why regions all over the world are hardly affected by covid19, including those that didn't have prior SARS/MERS exposure. Data strongly suggests that this coronavirus is seasonal just like other coronaviruses and not especially deadly so Controlled Voluntary Infection shouldn't even be necessary (but it would work).