4 ms·
Preppers also predicted 10 of the last 1 world debacles too, so that's not very predictive either (year 2000 crisis, nuclear war, etc). I'm no better myself. H
by NotSammyHagar 6y ago
Preppers also predicted 10 of the last 1 world debacles too, so that's not very predictive either (year 2000 crisis, nuclear war, etc). I'm no better myself.
However, in 2008 there was a giant amount of poor mortgage debt, it was a real thing. We've had near 0% interest rates in much of the western world, more in europe, wasteful debt increases and tax cuts in the us that didn't go to long term useful infrastructure. And our economy hasn't been growing that much. China has a giant debt bomb, how will that work out?
- dehrmann 6y agoNever mind China's debt bomb. Their demographic bomb is bigger. It's going to look like Japan in 20 years. Between that, the possibility of parts splitting off, and the possibility of the fall of the Communist part, The "China will overtake the US" narrative is premature. If Xi can hold it together, maybe it will, but that's not a given.
- NotSammyHagar 6y agoI forgot about the age issue and also the too many males, too few females in China. The Communist part is looking pretty strong right now. I wonder, is there any reason to hope that China will eventually democratize? I see nothing like the demographic trends that is so clear. China has a lot of room to grow their economy and military before the demographic issues hit. Look at Japan, very powerful in both dimensions.