4 ms·
The mortality rate is not the only consideration. People don't want to die, sure, but they also don't want to spend a couple of weeks in the hospital. And that
by vannevar 6y ago
The mortality rate is not the only consideration. People don't want to die, sure, but they also don't want to spend a couple of weeks in the hospital. And that risk, even for those under 65, is much, much higher: at least 1 in 100 (Source:https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page).
Not only do individuals not want to spend time in the hospital, we as a society don't want them there either. Assuming we need 60% of the population to recover in order to achieve herd immunity, and assuming we somehow isolate all of our 65+ year olds from the virus, that would mean almost 2M hospitalizations in the US.
- jtdaugh 6y agoI can't find hospitalizations broken out by underlying illnesses, but if among each age bracket we assume the % of deaths associated with underlying illness holds as the % of hospitalizations associated with underlying illness, then we get a "healthy under 65" Hospitalization Rate of 0.3% to 0.5%. Under 65: 7.4M people 1.55M infected 26,000 hospitalizations 4,548 "healthy" hospitalizations (16% of deaths under 65 have no comorbidities. Using same rate here). 800k-1.2M infected w/o comorbidities depending on "healthy rate" 4,548 / 1M = 0.45%
- vannevar 6y agoGood point. I was assuming using the rate per capita would be best case, but you're right, you'd also need underlying illness rates. I think the point stands though, that hospitalization rates for otherwise healthy patients under 65 is an order of magnitude higher than their mortality rate.