3 ms·

I keep seeing completely contradictory information on this. Just a few days ago I saw that they were on track and expecting to reach herd immunity some time in

by ksaj 6y ago

I keep seeing completely contradictory information on this. Just a few days ago I saw that they were on track and expecting to reach herd immunity some time in June. Then I read there is doubt, and it would take a month or so longer. And now, they are nowhere near that goal. It is easy to understand why there is so much frustration in the world over this pandemic. For my household, we're going to continue to err on the side of caution.

bookofjoe 6y ago
I concur with your approach. I view every person as a carrier and proceed accordingly.
Arnt 6y ago
They are roughly on track. I don't understand their thinking, but those numbers are roughly as forecast. They expected 18% infection by the end of April IIRC, and measured 7.3% antibodies (which trail infection by a few weeks). Hospital admissions have been flat or even shrinking a little in Stockholm for weeks now, which can only be a sign that they're approaching herd immunity, AFAICT, even if they're nowhere near the common estimate of 60%. Note that herd immunity isn't a goal in Sweden. It's a state they expect to reach (before vaccines become available) but it's not a policy goal.
thu2111 6y ago
It's because new cases peaked at the end of April for Sweden, so the population is probably already most of the way towards herd immunity. How is that possible? Two main theories are being explored: 1. The population didn't start out 100% susceptible like the models assume. Some large fraction of people may have pre-existing immunity from prior coronavirus infections. 2. The population is non-homogeneous. The models assume everyone is equally virulent and equally susceptible. If that assumption is changed and the models re-run, they show the epidemic taps out at about 15-20% infected. https://www.nicholaslewis.org/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought/ https://www.nicholaslewis.org/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-...

by ksaj 6y ago

bookofjoe 6y ago

I concur with your approach. I view every person as a carrier and proceed accordingly.

Arnt 6y ago

They are roughly on track. I don't understand their thinking, but those numbers are roughly as forecast. They expected 18% infection by the end of April IIRC, and measured 7.3% antibodies (which trail infection by a few weeks). Hospital admissions have been flat or even shrinking a little in Stockholm for weeks now, which can only be a sign that they're approaching herd immunity, AFAICT, even if they're nowhere near the common estimate of 60%. Note that herd immunity isn't a goal in Sweden. It's a state they expect to reach (before vaccines become available) but it's not a policy goal.

thu2111 6y ago

It's because new cases peaked at the end of April for Sweden, so the population is probably already most of the way towards herd immunity. How is that possible? Two main theories are being explored: 1. The population didn't start out 100% susceptible like the models assume. Some large fraction of people may have pre-existing immunity from prior coronavirus infections. 2. The population is non-homogeneous. The models assume everyone is equally virulent and equally susceptible. If that assumption is changed and the models re-run, they show the epidemic taps out at about 15-20% infected. https://www.nicholaslewis.org/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought/ https://www.nicholaslewis.org/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-...