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It's still nowhere near those numbers though and I doubt it will be. Some of the cleaned up code from The Imperial College has been released and it's just tragi
by djsumdog 6y ago
It's still nowhere near those numbers though and I doubt it will be. Some of the cleaned up code from The Imperial College has been released and it's just tragic that just wide sweeping decisions were based on a model that is objectively a nightmare of illogical statements, random ideas, and something that honestly looks more at home in SimCity than in something used to decide policy.
I doubt we'll get anywhere near the numbers most models claimed with mitigation. Even the 90k/US currently will have to be re-evaluated at the end and pruned (or possibly added to) for any inaccuracies.
Predicting the future is often foolish, and I hope this is a cautionary tale. We'll have to wait until March 2021 to look at the average deaths per year and compare it to 2020 to get a real sense of the picture, but from what I've been reading currently, my hypothesis is that it will be no where near what was predicted a few months ago. (I could be wrong though, but we won't know until 2021).
It's all guessing at this point though. This whole thing we're in, was a guess, and the costs are high.
- foota 6y agoWe don't have to wait, current average death analysis shows greatly increased deaths. The nyt had a piece on this.
- xenihn 6y agoDo you have a link?
- foota 6y agohttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronaviru...
- rpiguy 6y agoTo show how quickly things move that article from four weeks ago is already woefully out of date with the CDC having since revised down numbers and Dr. Birx herself criticizing the CDC for inflating them. The number of cases is exploding upward because of wide spread testing, but deaths are plummeting despite states opening up. Over half of US counties have had zero coronavirus deaths.
- foota 6y agoPlummeting? Sure, deaths are down, but at a quick glance it looks like ~1000 people are still dying a day. There is a lag in deaths from people socializing, and a lag in people socializing from states opening up. Unfortunately, I'm almost certain things will get dramatically worse in the next 2 weeks. Come laugh at me in 14 days if I'm wrong :)