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A lot of people here are alluding to the fact that China is planning to invade Taiwan in a not so distant future. China wants to annex Taiwan, that's for sure,

A lot of people here are alluding to the fact that China is planning to invade Taiwan in a not so distant future. China wants to annex Taiwan, that's for sure, and I don't think they are trying too hard to conceal this intention. But military invasion means crossing a sea that is 130 km wide at its narrowest. Such an think can't happen if you don't own the sea and the skies. There are two ways to do that: you get a better Navy than the US Navy, or you get the US Navy to stay out of the way. The first one is all but impossible, while the second one is highly unlikely. The only realistic way for China to take over Taiwan is via a democratic process, by a charm offensive. This is many, many times more likely to happen than a military operation, but if it happens, then that's the will of the people.

ginko 6y ago
>The only realistic way for China to take over Taiwan is via a democratic process, by a charm offensive. They haven't been doing all that well with that lately.
- koheripbal 6y ago
  China has publicly said that it is very patient in this regard. The only thing that will trigger invasion, is if Taiwan makes a concerted effort towards full independence. ...and while we can say that HK protests and covid-19 have reduced the popularity of unification, it is still, on average, more popular an idea than at any time since the split in 1949. EDIT: Because I couldn't find any data supporting my above statement, I'll just throw a link with the latest (20yr) trend that mostly just says that the vast vast majority of Taiwanese want to maintain the status quo... source: http://chinamatters.blogspot.com/2019/01/ http://chinamatters.blogspot.com/2019/01/ ...and since China has said publicly that they won't act against Taiwan as long as they don't move away, then the only outcome we're going to see on Taiwan is a whole lot of nothing for the foreseeable future - even if HK students on here want to see Taiwan supporting them - that doesn't seem like that's going to happen.
billfruit 6y ago
Though presently Taiwan is ruled by the DPP who is pro-independence, the other major party which has been often in power, the Kuomintang generally tries to foster a "Chinese" identity rather than a "Taiwanese" one and have always had a vision of "Reunification" with China, eventually. So the political dynamic in Taiwan has a bearing on the matter.
munificent 6y ago
If your claim that the only thing stopping China from invading Taiwan is the US Navy, then China doesn't necessarily have to charm Taiwan to achieve their goal. They could also charm (or otherwise pressure) the US into not intervening.

ginko 6y ago

>The only realistic way for China to take over Taiwan is via a democratic process, by a charm offensive. They haven't been doing all that well with that lately.

koheripbal 6y ago
China has publicly said that it is very patient in this regard. The only thing that will trigger invasion, is if Taiwan makes a concerted effort towards full independence. ...and while we can say that HK protests and covid-19 have reduced the popularity of unification, it is still, on average, more popular an idea than at any time since the split in 1949. EDIT: Because I couldn't find any data supporting my above statement, I'll just throw a link with the latest (20yr) trend that mostly just says that the vast vast majority of Taiwanese want to maintain the status quo... source: http://chinamatters.blogspot.com/2019/01/ http://chinamatters.blogspot.com/2019/01/ ...and since China has said publicly that they won't act against Taiwan as long as they don't move away, then the only outcome we're going to see on Taiwan is a whole lot of nothing for the foreseeable future - even if HK students on here want to see Taiwan supporting them - that doesn't seem like that's going to happen.

billfruit 6y ago

Though presently Taiwan is ruled by the DPP who is pro-independence, the other major party which has been often in power, the Kuomintang generally tries to foster a "Chinese" identity rather than a "Taiwanese" one and have always had a vision of "Reunification" with China, eventually. So the political dynamic in Taiwan has a bearing on the matter.

munificent 6y ago

If your claim that the only thing stopping China from invading Taiwan is the US Navy, then China doesn't necessarily have to charm Taiwan to achieve their goal. They could also charm (or otherwise pressure) the US into not intervening.