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Similar to other people on Twitter and Shopify’s announcement thread, I think this might be an excuse for corporations to reduce their commercial footprint and

Similar to other people on Twitter and Shopify’s announcement thread, I think this might be an excuse for corporations to reduce their commercial footprint and save money by opening applicant pools to larger areas of the country with cheaper CoL (and perhaps the world, different time zones are tough though). What about work visas? Will this encourage more visas, or will citizens become unsettled after more cost effective labor is remotely hired while they’re left competing against far cheaper world economies. I can see arguments for both expanding H1B program, and making it more difficult/selective. Something about this doesn’t feel right, the pandemic isn’t nearly as bad as was predicted. It’s been devastating, but nothing like 1918. That is to say, perhaps these drastic actions of mass WFH will have implications we can’t predict yet, especially at scale. Will cities become less congested? How about home life, if WFH becomes standard in 5 years time, and some positions that are easily remote are hard to find physically, will home life become disrupted? (Currently domestic violence, child abuse has soared, though this is most likely due to the stress of the pandemic, and not the WFH itself. Through school, work, etc tends to allow those at risk to form social networks, and reach out for help from their abusers.) There is something to say about spending time away from immediate family. Some people need the break, others are synergetic and can spend all their time together. Depends on the persons involved. But let’s not celebrate just yet, there’s obvious economic incentives, and it isn’t clear this can be reliably reversed. We’re rarely given the full list of motives, which may not be in our best interest.

jonny_eh 6y ago
> nothing like 1918 It's not over.
- djsumdog 6y ago
  It's still nowhere near those numbers though and I doubt it will be. Some of the cleaned up code from The Imperial College has been released and it's just tragic that just wide sweeping decisions were based on a model that is objectively a nightmare of illogical statements, random ideas, and something that honestly looks more at home in SimCity than in something used to decide policy. I doubt we'll get anywhere near the numbers most models claimed with mitigation. Even the 90k/US currently will have to be re-evaluated at the end and pruned (or possibly added to) for any inaccuracies. Predicting the future is often foolish, and I hope this is a cautionary tale. We'll have to wait until March 2021 to look at the average deaths per year and compare it to 2020 to get a real sense of the picture, but from what I've been reading currently, my hypothesis is that it will be no where near what was predicted a few months ago. (I could be wrong though, but we won't know until 2021). It's all guessing at this point though. This whole thing we're in, was a guess, and the costs are high.
  - foota 6y ago
    We don't have to wait, current average death analysis shows greatly increased deaths. The nyt had a piece on this.
    - xenihn 6y ago
      Do you have a link?
      - foota 6y ago
        https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronaviru...
        rpiguy 6y ago
        To show how quickly things move that article from four weeks ago is already woefully out of date with the CDC having since revised down numbers and Dr. Birx herself criticizing the CDC for inflating them. The number of cases is exploding upward because of wide spread testing, but deaths are plummeting despite states opening up. Over half of US counties have had zero coronavirus deaths.
        foota 6y ago
        Plummeting? Sure, deaths are down, but at a quick glance it looks like ~1000 people are still dying a day. There is a lag in deaths from people socializing, and a lag in people socializing from states opening up. Unfortunately, I'm almost certain things will get dramatically worse in the next 2 weeks. Come laugh at me in 14 days if I'm wrong :)
dillonmckay 6y ago
I never realized how many people relied on work and school to reduce contact with their family until this pandemic started. I don’t know where we go from here, though.
- remarkEon 6y ago
  I suppose I've seen the two extremes of this. People who are really annoyed with their family, and others (mostly women) who probably won't go back to work when this is over because they actually get to see their kids. Not sure which cohort is larger but I do see some benefits with people, who want to I guess, having an avenue for spending more time with their family. That said I personally hate working from home. Never ever thought I'd say it but I long for my office cubicle as my work has totally monopolized what's usually my own personal space for side projects and zoning out.
  - mjayhn 6y ago
    I wouldn't expect anyone to enjoy wfh in a tiny apartment or anything like that. I'm watching mountain houses that have sat vacant for months get rented and I'm quite tempted myself. It's not like I can walk to anywhere that's open and I'm paying all this money to live in a hip area with bars and stuff.
  - pbourke 6y ago
    > my work has totally monopolized what's usually my own personal space for side projects and zoning out I would like to see an increase in flexibility. Many people will choose to work from their own homes, and some may choose to use a flex working space near their homes, and some may commute to the office. Maybe you'll do all 3 depending on what's going on in your life or at work. The increased flexibility is the key.
  - alexilliamson 6y ago
    You're one of the lucky few with a cubicle. Do you think you would feel differently if you worked in an open office?
xster 6y ago
> It’s been devastating, but nothing like 1918 Well we won't really know until we finish the third wave too https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#/media/File:1918_spanish_flu_waves.gif https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#/media/File:1918_s...
- CydeWeys 6y ago
  We do already know that this virus is nowhere near as deadly, plus medical treatments have evolved significantly over the past century.
eaandkw 6y ago
For some reason I feel like this is more of a way to reduce payroll and eventually outsourse most of the company. If everyone is working remote then it is only a small step to offshore everyone at that point. Edit: Wrong word used
- mav3rick 6y ago
  What is wrong with that ? Free market at play.
  - whoo 6y ago
    Let me start by saying you're correct. ' However, it's also the case that the free market seems to now be only in play when it comes to reducing wages, off shoring, and other cost cutting. The free market isn't at play when it's time for bailouts, subsidies, and government contracts. Rugged individualism for all, except the wealthy elite. I'm not sure the person who you replied to has a frustrated / discouraged tone, but that's what I read it as. I share the sentiment and the above is why.
    - sangnoir 6y ago
      > Rugged individualism for all, except the wealthy elite. This is a direct consequence of considering money to be free speech: those who have more of it have louder voices, and this matters a lot when it comes to elections, and when it's time for politicians to pay back their debts to the donors.
- VRay 6y ago
  You have to compete with the same Amazon, Twitter, Google, etc whether you're hiring 5 star engineers for $300k+ each or 3 star engineers for $100k and under. I don't buy into the theory that one engineer is innately 100 times as skilled as another, but you're going to have a really hard time competing with FAANG if you just randomly scoop up a bunch of mediocre engineers willing to accept 50k a year each. If I leave Silicon Valley to settle down in rural Vietnam, I'm not going to work for $50k a year. If I couldn't find something paying at least $150k+, I'd start my own company and live off my savings until I get it up and running. There's a real market-based reason engineers get paid as much as they do. It's easy to lose sight of that here on HackerNews, but just look at what your white collar, non-tech friends do at work all day. Their productivity can often be easily doubled or tripled by better tech. That is to say, someone generating $30k in value per year for your business could suddenly generate an extra $30-$60k a year with better software to help them.
mnd999 6y ago
It feels like innovation theatre. Everyone wants to be seen to be doing something innovative in response to this, so they all jump on the obvious “innovative” thing.
djsumdog 6y ago
This made it up here a few weeks ago and I think it's important: "Quarantine Work is Not Remote Work" https://www.hanselman.com/blog/QuarantineWorkIsNotRemoteWork.aspx https://www.hanselman.com/blog/QuarantineWorkIsNotRemoteWork... I've worked remote before and it was fun, I got more done, and I could go into the office once or twice a week if I really wanted. I worked with a guy in Colorado I never met in person for over a year, but I did eventually meet him while driving through on a trip. If you've never worked remote before 2020, this is not what remote work even remotely feels like. Everything is very different when it's not a choice. I think we need to keep that in mind.
- sekai 6y ago
  > If you've never worked remote before 2020, this is not what remote work even remotely feels like. Everything is very different when it's not a choice. I think we need to keep that in mind. That's true. But I'm damn happy this is the direction we're moving in, the commute is never fun, open offices are usually draining if you're not with a headset stuck in your focus bubble (which defeats the purpose of the open-office in the first place). Of course, we'll need to find a medium for this, but even an option for remote work is great.
- PopeDotNinja 6y ago
  > "Quarantine Work is Not Remote Work" That's a great reminder. Thanks.
elliekelly 6y ago
> That is to say, perhaps these drastic actions of mass WFH will have implications we can’t predict yet, especially at scale. Something that I haven't yet seen discussed much on this or similar threads are the support and amenities staff. Most of the developers will be alright, maybe even better off, but the Bay Area is full of chefs, shuttle drivers, janitors, and who knows how many other roles that probably won't exist anymore. That's a big permanent shift in employment opportunity for those people.

jonny_eh 6y ago

> nothing like 1918 It's not over.

djsumdog 6y ago
It's still nowhere near those numbers though and I doubt it will be. Some of the cleaned up code from The Imperial College has been released and it's just tragic that just wide sweeping decisions were based on a model that is objectively a nightmare of illogical statements, random ideas, and something that honestly looks more at home in SimCity than in something used to decide policy. I doubt we'll get anywhere near the numbers most models claimed with mitigation. Even the 90k/US currently will have to be re-evaluated at the end and pruned (or possibly added to) for any inaccuracies. Predicting the future is often foolish, and I hope this is a cautionary tale. We'll have to wait until March 2021 to look at the average deaths per year and compare it to 2020 to get a real sense of the picture, but from what I've been reading currently, my hypothesis is that it will be no where near what was predicted a few months ago. (I could be wrong though, but we won't know until 2021). It's all guessing at this point though. This whole thing we're in, was a guess, and the costs are high.
- foota 6y ago
  We don't have to wait, current average death analysis shows greatly increased deaths. The nyt had a piece on this.
  - xenihn 6y ago
    Do you have a link?
    - foota 6y ago
      https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronaviru...
      - rpiguy 6y ago
        To show how quickly things move that article from four weeks ago is already woefully out of date with the CDC having since revised down numbers and Dr. Birx herself criticizing the CDC for inflating them. The number of cases is exploding upward because of wide spread testing, but deaths are plummeting despite states opening up. Over half of US counties have had zero coronavirus deaths.
        foota 6y ago
        Plummeting? Sure, deaths are down, but at a quick glance it looks like ~1000 people are still dying a day. There is a lag in deaths from people socializing, and a lag in people socializing from states opening up. Unfortunately, I'm almost certain things will get dramatically worse in the next 2 weeks. Come laugh at me in 14 days if I'm wrong :)

dillonmckay 6y ago

I never realized how many people relied on work and school to reduce contact with their family until this pandemic started. I don’t know where we go from here, though.

remarkEon 6y ago
I suppose I've seen the two extremes of this. People who are really annoyed with their family, and others (mostly women) who probably won't go back to work when this is over because they actually get to see their kids. Not sure which cohort is larger but I do see some benefits with people, who want to I guess, having an avenue for spending more time with their family. That said I personally hate working from home. Never ever thought I'd say it but I long for my office cubicle as my work has totally monopolized what's usually my own personal space for side projects and zoning out.
- mjayhn 6y ago
  I wouldn't expect anyone to enjoy wfh in a tiny apartment or anything like that. I'm watching mountain houses that have sat vacant for months get rented and I'm quite tempted myself. It's not like I can walk to anywhere that's open and I'm paying all this money to live in a hip area with bars and stuff.
- pbourke 6y ago
  > my work has totally monopolized what's usually my own personal space for side projects and zoning out I would like to see an increase in flexibility. Many people will choose to work from their own homes, and some may choose to use a flex working space near their homes, and some may commute to the office. Maybe you'll do all 3 depending on what's going on in your life or at work. The increased flexibility is the key.
- alexilliamson 6y ago
  You're one of the lucky few with a cubicle. Do you think you would feel differently if you worked in an open office?

xster 6y ago

> It’s been devastating, but nothing like 1918 Well we won't really know until we finish the third wave too https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#/media/File:1918_spanish_flu_waves.gif https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#/media/File:1918_s...

CydeWeys 6y ago
We do already know that this virus is nowhere near as deadly, plus medical treatments have evolved significantly over the past century.

eaandkw 6y ago

For some reason I feel like this is more of a way to reduce payroll and eventually outsourse most of the company. If everyone is working remote then it is only a small step to offshore everyone at that point. Edit: Wrong word used

mav3rick 6y ago
What is wrong with that ? Free market at play.
- whoo 6y ago
  Let me start by saying you're correct. ' However, it's also the case that the free market seems to now be only in play when it comes to reducing wages, off shoring, and other cost cutting. The free market isn't at play when it's time for bailouts, subsidies, and government contracts. Rugged individualism for all, except the wealthy elite. I'm not sure the person who you replied to has a frustrated / discouraged tone, but that's what I read it as. I share the sentiment and the above is why.
  - sangnoir 6y ago
    > Rugged individualism for all, except the wealthy elite. This is a direct consequence of considering money to be free speech: those who have more of it have louder voices, and this matters a lot when it comes to elections, and when it's time for politicians to pay back their debts to the donors.
VRay 6y ago
You have to compete with the same Amazon, Twitter, Google, etc whether you're hiring 5 star engineers for $300k+ each or 3 star engineers for $100k and under. I don't buy into the theory that one engineer is innately 100 times as skilled as another, but you're going to have a really hard time competing with FAANG if you just randomly scoop up a bunch of mediocre engineers willing to accept 50k a year each. If I leave Silicon Valley to settle down in rural Vietnam, I'm not going to work for $50k a year. If I couldn't find something paying at least $150k+, I'd start my own company and live off my savings until I get it up and running. There's a real market-based reason engineers get paid as much as they do. It's easy to lose sight of that here on HackerNews, but just look at what your white collar, non-tech friends do at work all day. Their productivity can often be easily doubled or tripled by better tech. That is to say, someone generating $30k in value per year for your business could suddenly generate an extra $30-$60k a year with better software to help them.

mnd999 6y ago

It feels like innovation theatre. Everyone wants to be seen to be doing something innovative in response to this, so they all jump on the obvious “innovative” thing.

djsumdog 6y ago

This made it up here a few weeks ago and I think it's important: "Quarantine Work is Not Remote Work" https://www.hanselman.com/blog/QuarantineWorkIsNotRemoteWork.aspx https://www.hanselman.com/blog/QuarantineWorkIsNotRemoteWork... I've worked remote before and it was fun, I got more done, and I could go into the office once or twice a week if I really wanted. I worked with a guy in Colorado I never met in person for over a year, but I did eventually meet him while driving through on a trip. If you've never worked remote before 2020, this is not what remote work even remotely feels like. Everything is very different when it's not a choice. I think we need to keep that in mind.

sekai 6y ago
> If you've never worked remote before 2020, this is not what remote work even remotely feels like. Everything is very different when it's not a choice. I think we need to keep that in mind. That's true. But I'm damn happy this is the direction we're moving in, the commute is never fun, open offices are usually draining if you're not with a headset stuck in your focus bubble (which defeats the purpose of the open-office in the first place). Of course, we'll need to find a medium for this, but even an option for remote work is great.
PopeDotNinja 6y ago
> "Quarantine Work is Not Remote Work" That's a great reminder. Thanks.

elliekelly 6y ago

> That is to say, perhaps these drastic actions of mass WFH will have implications we can’t predict yet, especially at scale. Something that I haven't yet seen discussed much on this or similar threads are the support and amenities staff. Most of the developers will be alright, maybe even better off, but the Bay Area is full of chefs, shuttle drivers, janitors, and who knows how many other roles that probably won't exist anymore. That's a big permanent shift in employment opportunity for those people.