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Mainland China is already Taiwan's largest trading partner by a big margin (followed by the US at second place). A lot of Taiwanese migrate to Mainland for bett

Mainland China is already Taiwan's largest trading partner by a big margin (followed by the US at second place). A lot of Taiwanese migrate to Mainland for better jobs. I am more curious what would happen, if say 50% of Taiwanese agree to some sort of reunification with Mainland through a referendum? How would the US react especially given the amount of US military resources and other strategic interests in Taiwan?

mytailorisrich 6y ago
The US's interest in Taiwan is part of a divide and conquer strategy. Nothing less, nothing more. The current political regime in mainland China is actually the best thing for the US and a transition to democracy would be bad because that would make reunification more likely, at least possible, and it would take away much of the arguments the US use against China. If the nationalists had defeated the communists and the mainland and Taiwan had remained united, I doubt that the tensions between China and the US would be less than they currently are, for example, because these tensions are not caused by the political regime in Beijing, they are much more profound. In any case, the US cannot realistically intervene militarily directly against China whatever happens.
- Robotbeat 6y ago
  That’s pretty silly and unfounded. The US is happy to trade with Europe, which is overall more economically powerful than the US but is democratic.
  - mytailorisrich 6y ago
    The US is happy to trade with China. Nothing to do with my 'silly' point, which is about geopolitics and the deeper causes of tensions.
  - DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
    Europe isn't a country. The US would strongly oppose political unification of Europe, if such a thing were ever in the cards.
- chaostheory 6y ago
  > If the nationalists had defeated the communists and the mainland and Taiwan had remained united, I doubt that the tensions between China and the US would be less than they currently are. I disagree, and this is a fun thought experiment. 1. The relationship would be a hybrid of the relationships that the US has with both Japan / South Korea and India. - China would be a friendly enough, export focused economy that's too large to be bullied by the US - It would historically have been a Cold War ally, giving it a larger edge over India 2. The West would have access to China's economy. 3. There would be less uncertainty about laws, helping the business climate. 4. Silicon Valley's crown would have been usurped 10 years ago or even far earlier. Why? Because China would have more personal freedoms and protections like with speech. Freedom of speech is instrumental to places like Silicon Valley where creativity is vital. Things like the adoption of the Internet would have been far earlier. 5. HK would have long been a shadow of itself. Shanghai would have taken its place far sooner. 6. While corruption would still be bad, it would be much better than present circumstances due to a free press and more transparency. 7. Tensions with Japan would be worse, due to freedom of speech and much earlier economic and technological rivalry 8. Chinese global economic influence and dominance would be much greater and would have happened much faster and earlier. 9. Chinese media such as TV shows and movies would be way more interesting instead of the boring period pieces or variety shows they keep cranking out today. 10. The male to female ratio would be almost equal due to more civil rights for women which leads to more economic opportunities for females We could go on what China could have been... the Asian equivalent of the US. This would be a cool TV series. Reminds of The Man in High Tower TV show.
  - mytailorisrich 6y ago
    This ignores geopolitical realities and the Chinese struggle to do away with foreign aggression and a decadent trend over the last 3 centuries. I am not trying to dream up what China could have been. I am saying that the tensions between China and the West stem from a trend that is more profound that the current Chinese regime. For example I think that virtually everything China is criticised about in its geopolitical policies and actions would be unchanged with a different regime because these are not things dreamed up by the communists but are deeper both in historical terms and in geopolitical interests terms. The communist party itself is a product of these trends and this struggle, not the cause.
- ericmay 6y ago
  I think the U.S. can certainly intervene, the question is whether or not it is worth it.
  - mytailorisrich 6y ago
    Can starting WWIII ever be worth it? So, no, the US will not attack China directly, in the same way that China will not attack the US directly. Edit: Using 'intervene' in response to a comment on direct military intervention should be clarified if you don't mean exactly that...
    - ericmay 6y ago
      Intervening doesn't have to mean attacking China directly.

mytailorisrich 6y ago

The US's interest in Taiwan is part of a divide and conquer strategy. Nothing less, nothing more. The current political regime in mainland China is actually the best thing for the US and a transition to democracy would be bad because that would make reunification more likely, at least possible, and it would take away much of the arguments the US use against China. If the nationalists had defeated the communists and the mainland and Taiwan had remained united, I doubt that the tensions between China and the US would be less than they currently are, for example, because these tensions are not caused by the political regime in Beijing, they are much more profound. In any case, the US cannot realistically intervene militarily directly against China whatever happens.

Robotbeat 6y ago
That’s pretty silly and unfounded. The US is happy to trade with Europe, which is overall more economically powerful than the US but is democratic.
- mytailorisrich 6y ago
  The US is happy to trade with China. Nothing to do with my 'silly' point, which is about geopolitics and the deeper causes of tensions.
- DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
  Europe isn't a country. The US would strongly oppose political unification of Europe, if such a thing were ever in the cards.
chaostheory 6y ago
> If the nationalists had defeated the communists and the mainland and Taiwan had remained united, I doubt that the tensions between China and the US would be less than they currently are. I disagree, and this is a fun thought experiment. 1. The relationship would be a hybrid of the relationships that the US has with both Japan / South Korea and India. - China would be a friendly enough, export focused economy that's too large to be bullied by the US - It would historically have been a Cold War ally, giving it a larger edge over India 2. The West would have access to China's economy. 3. There would be less uncertainty about laws, helping the business climate. 4. Silicon Valley's crown would have been usurped 10 years ago or even far earlier. Why? Because China would have more personal freedoms and protections like with speech. Freedom of speech is instrumental to places like Silicon Valley where creativity is vital. Things like the adoption of the Internet would have been far earlier. 5. HK would have long been a shadow of itself. Shanghai would have taken its place far sooner. 6. While corruption would still be bad, it would be much better than present circumstances due to a free press and more transparency. 7. Tensions with Japan would be worse, due to freedom of speech and much earlier economic and technological rivalry 8. Chinese global economic influence and dominance would be much greater and would have happened much faster and earlier. 9. Chinese media such as TV shows and movies would be way more interesting instead of the boring period pieces or variety shows they keep cranking out today. 10. The male to female ratio would be almost equal due to more civil rights for women which leads to more economic opportunities for females We could go on what China could have been... the Asian equivalent of the US. This would be a cool TV series. Reminds of The Man in High Tower TV show.
- mytailorisrich 6y ago
  This ignores geopolitical realities and the Chinese struggle to do away with foreign aggression and a decadent trend over the last 3 centuries. I am not trying to dream up what China could have been. I am saying that the tensions between China and the West stem from a trend that is more profound that the current Chinese regime. For example I think that virtually everything China is criticised about in its geopolitical policies and actions would be unchanged with a different regime because these are not things dreamed up by the communists but are deeper both in historical terms and in geopolitical interests terms. The communist party itself is a product of these trends and this struggle, not the cause.
ericmay 6y ago
I think the U.S. can certainly intervene, the question is whether or not it is worth it.
- mytailorisrich 6y ago
  Can starting WWIII ever be worth it? So, no, the US will not attack China directly, in the same way that China will not attack the US directly. Edit: Using 'intervene' in response to a comment on direct military intervention should be clarified if you don't mean exactly that...
  - ericmay 6y ago
    Intervening doesn't have to mean attacking China directly.