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The PRC is playing the long game. Decades from now, they'll take the ROC without firing a shot. It will be through economic integration leading to a vote. I kn

The PRC is playing the long game. Decades from now, they'll take the ROC without firing a shot. It will be through economic integration leading to a vote. I know plenty of businesses in Taiwan that set up factories right across the way in Xiamen. It's been well underway for the past 20 years.

blueblisters 6y ago
Mainland China is already Taiwan's largest trading partner by a big margin (followed by the US at second place). A lot of Taiwanese migrate to Mainland for better jobs. I am more curious what would happen, if say 50% of Taiwanese agree to some sort of reunification with Mainland through a referendum? How would the US react especially given the amount of US military resources and other strategic interests in Taiwan?
- mytailorisrich 6y ago
  The US's interest in Taiwan is part of a divide and conquer strategy. Nothing less, nothing more. The current political regime in mainland China is actually the best thing for the US and a transition to democracy would be bad because that would make reunification more likely, at least possible, and it would take away much of the arguments the US use against China. If the nationalists had defeated the communists and the mainland and Taiwan had remained united, I doubt that the tensions between China and the US would be less than they currently are, for example, because these tensions are not caused by the political regime in Beijing, they are much more profound. In any case, the US cannot realistically intervene militarily directly against China whatever happens.
  - Robotbeat 6y ago
    That’s pretty silly and unfounded. The US is happy to trade with Europe, which is overall more economically powerful than the US but is democratic.
    - mytailorisrich 6y ago
      The US is happy to trade with China. Nothing to do with my 'silly' point, which is about geopolitics and the deeper causes of tensions.
    - DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
      Europe isn't a country. The US would strongly oppose political unification of Europe, if such a thing were ever in the cards.
  - chaostheory 6y ago
    > If the nationalists had defeated the communists and the mainland and Taiwan had remained united, I doubt that the tensions between China and the US would be less than they currently are. I disagree, and this is a fun thought experiment. 1. The relationship would be a hybrid of the relationships that the US has with both Japan / South Korea and India. - China would be a friendly enough, export focused economy that's too large to be bullied by the US - It would historically have been a Cold War ally, giving it a larger edge over India 2. The West would have access to China's economy. 3. There would be less uncertainty about laws, helping the business climate. 4. Silicon Valley's crown would have been usurped 10 years ago or even far earlier. Why? Because China would have more personal freedoms and protections like with speech. Freedom of speech is instrumental to places like Silicon Valley where creativity is vital. Things like the adoption of the Internet would have been far earlier. 5. HK would have long been a shadow of itself. Shanghai would have taken its place far sooner. 6. While corruption would still be bad, it would be much better than present circumstances due to a free press and more transparency. 7. Tensions with Japan would be worse, due to freedom of speech and much earlier economic and technological rivalry 8. Chinese global economic influence and dominance would be much greater and would have happened much faster and earlier. 9. Chinese media such as TV shows and movies would be way more interesting instead of the boring period pieces or variety shows they keep cranking out today. 10. The male to female ratio would be almost equal due to more civil rights for women which leads to more economic opportunities for females We could go on what China could have been... the Asian equivalent of the US. This would be a cool TV series. Reminds of The Man in High Tower TV show.
    - mytailorisrich 6y ago
      This ignores geopolitical realities and the Chinese struggle to do away with foreign aggression and a decadent trend over the last 3 centuries. I am not trying to dream up what China could have been. I am saying that the tensions between China and the West stem from a trend that is more profound that the current Chinese regime. For example I think that virtually everything China is criticised about in its geopolitical policies and actions would be unchanged with a different regime because these are not things dreamed up by the communists but are deeper both in historical terms and in geopolitical interests terms. The communist party itself is a product of these trends and this struggle, not the cause.
  - ericmay 6y ago
    I think the U.S. can certainly intervene, the question is whether or not it is worth it.
    - mytailorisrich 6y ago
      Can starting WWIII ever be worth it? So, no, the US will not attack China directly, in the same way that China will not attack the US directly. Edit: Using 'intervene' in response to a comment on direct military intervention should be clarified if you don't mean exactly that...
      - ericmay 6y ago
        Intervening doesn't have to mean attacking China directly.
throwaway2048 6y ago
Its extremely unlikely that China is going to "take the ROC without firing a shot" after the disaster Hong Kong has been for them.
- billfruit 6y ago
  Why do you think it has been a disaster for them, even in HK, they would play the long game, and likely do nothing drastic for years or even decades. The fact is even in HK protests, they have largely not intervened in any manner, and haven't tried to tackle in a violent manner. OTOH see how protests in Delhi have turned out over another draconian law. On the day Trump himself was in Delhi in Feb 2020, more than 10 people got killed in violence.
  - throwaway2048 6y ago
    Its no secret to anyone who has paid attention (which the Taiwanese certainly have) that China has been constantly undermining Hong Kong's guaranteed independence with both political pressure and government cronies. The fact they haven't outright invaded and smashed Hong Kong is hardly high praise. There is zero chance that the CCP will hold up their end of any bargain Taiwan makes to join it, and the situation in Hong Kong proves it.
mytailorisrich 6y ago
Interestingly, the border is actually right in Xiamen's bay, not all the way out at sea. They can wave at each others (almost). Xiamen from Taiwan: https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@24.4496222,118.2383558,3a,75y,316h,90.56t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sAF1QipOh893gxdJgWF64T2qw_q7-Dju2Y16fmHLe6ezu!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipOh893gxdJgWF64T2qw_q7-Dju2Y16fmHLe6ezu%3Dw203-h100-k-no-pi-4.758108-ya286.68393-ro1.1875006-fo100!7i5376!8i2688 https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@24.4496222,118.2383558,3a,75y...
tekkk 6y ago
It would be interesting though that if USA could make a deal in which they accept the loss of Taiwan for unification of Koreas. But that's kind of far-fetched. It makes me sad thought that North Koreans still have to suffer their relic of past regime, which is just net-negative for the population at whole. Yet their lives and well-being is just a part of the geopolitical chess board, and the regime will continue to exist as long as Chinese leaders seem fit.

blueblisters 6y ago

Mainland China is already Taiwan's largest trading partner by a big margin (followed by the US at second place). A lot of Taiwanese migrate to Mainland for better jobs. I am more curious what would happen, if say 50% of Taiwanese agree to some sort of reunification with Mainland through a referendum? How would the US react especially given the amount of US military resources and other strategic interests in Taiwan?

mytailorisrich 6y ago
The US's interest in Taiwan is part of a divide and conquer strategy. Nothing less, nothing more. The current political regime in mainland China is actually the best thing for the US and a transition to democracy would be bad because that would make reunification more likely, at least possible, and it would take away much of the arguments the US use against China. If the nationalists had defeated the communists and the mainland and Taiwan had remained united, I doubt that the tensions between China and the US would be less than they currently are, for example, because these tensions are not caused by the political regime in Beijing, they are much more profound. In any case, the US cannot realistically intervene militarily directly against China whatever happens.
- Robotbeat 6y ago
  That’s pretty silly and unfounded. The US is happy to trade with Europe, which is overall more economically powerful than the US but is democratic.
  - mytailorisrich 6y ago
    The US is happy to trade with China. Nothing to do with my 'silly' point, which is about geopolitics and the deeper causes of tensions.
  - DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
    Europe isn't a country. The US would strongly oppose political unification of Europe, if such a thing were ever in the cards.
- chaostheory 6y ago
  > If the nationalists had defeated the communists and the mainland and Taiwan had remained united, I doubt that the tensions between China and the US would be less than they currently are. I disagree, and this is a fun thought experiment. 1. The relationship would be a hybrid of the relationships that the US has with both Japan / South Korea and India. - China would be a friendly enough, export focused economy that's too large to be bullied by the US - It would historically have been a Cold War ally, giving it a larger edge over India 2. The West would have access to China's economy. 3. There would be less uncertainty about laws, helping the business climate. 4. Silicon Valley's crown would have been usurped 10 years ago or even far earlier. Why? Because China would have more personal freedoms and protections like with speech. Freedom of speech is instrumental to places like Silicon Valley where creativity is vital. Things like the adoption of the Internet would have been far earlier. 5. HK would have long been a shadow of itself. Shanghai would have taken its place far sooner. 6. While corruption would still be bad, it would be much better than present circumstances due to a free press and more transparency. 7. Tensions with Japan would be worse, due to freedom of speech and much earlier economic and technological rivalry 8. Chinese global economic influence and dominance would be much greater and would have happened much faster and earlier. 9. Chinese media such as TV shows and movies would be way more interesting instead of the boring period pieces or variety shows they keep cranking out today. 10. The male to female ratio would be almost equal due to more civil rights for women which leads to more economic opportunities for females We could go on what China could have been... the Asian equivalent of the US. This would be a cool TV series. Reminds of The Man in High Tower TV show.
  - mytailorisrich 6y ago
    This ignores geopolitical realities and the Chinese struggle to do away with foreign aggression and a decadent trend over the last 3 centuries. I am not trying to dream up what China could have been. I am saying that the tensions between China and the West stem from a trend that is more profound that the current Chinese regime. For example I think that virtually everything China is criticised about in its geopolitical policies and actions would be unchanged with a different regime because these are not things dreamed up by the communists but are deeper both in historical terms and in geopolitical interests terms. The communist party itself is a product of these trends and this struggle, not the cause.
- ericmay 6y ago
  I think the U.S. can certainly intervene, the question is whether or not it is worth it.
  - mytailorisrich 6y ago
    Can starting WWIII ever be worth it? So, no, the US will not attack China directly, in the same way that China will not attack the US directly. Edit: Using 'intervene' in response to a comment on direct military intervention should be clarified if you don't mean exactly that...
    - ericmay 6y ago
      Intervening doesn't have to mean attacking China directly.

throwaway2048 6y ago

Its extremely unlikely that China is going to "take the ROC without firing a shot" after the disaster Hong Kong has been for them.

billfruit 6y ago
Why do you think it has been a disaster for them, even in HK, they would play the long game, and likely do nothing drastic for years or even decades. The fact is even in HK protests, they have largely not intervened in any manner, and haven't tried to tackle in a violent manner. OTOH see how protests in Delhi have turned out over another draconian law. On the day Trump himself was in Delhi in Feb 2020, more than 10 people got killed in violence.
- throwaway2048 6y ago
  Its no secret to anyone who has paid attention (which the Taiwanese certainly have) that China has been constantly undermining Hong Kong's guaranteed independence with both political pressure and government cronies. The fact they haven't outright invaded and smashed Hong Kong is hardly high praise. There is zero chance that the CCP will hold up their end of any bargain Taiwan makes to join it, and the situation in Hong Kong proves it.

mytailorisrich 6y ago

Interestingly, the border is actually right in Xiamen's bay, not all the way out at sea. They can wave at each others (almost). Xiamen from Taiwan: https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@24.4496222,118.2383558,3a,75y,316h,90.56t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sAF1QipOh893gxdJgWF64T2qw_q7-Dju2Y16fmHLe6ezu!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipOh893gxdJgWF64T2qw_q7-Dju2Y16fmHLe6ezu%3Dw203-h100-k-no-pi-4.758108-ya286.68393-ro1.1875006-fo100!7i5376!8i2688 https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@24.4496222,118.2383558,3a,75y...

tekkk 6y ago

It would be interesting though that if USA could make a deal in which they accept the loss of Taiwan for unification of Koreas. But that's kind of far-fetched. It makes me sad thought that North Koreans still have to suffer their relic of past regime, which is just net-negative for the population at whole. Yet their lives and well-being is just a part of the geopolitical chess board, and the regime will continue to exist as long as Chinese leaders seem fit.