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> Nevermind potential U.S. involvement. What does this mean?

by jooize 6y ago

kindatrue 6y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Relations_Act https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Relations_Act
ericmay 6y ago
The U.S. may come to the aid of Taiwan. The big question is to what extent. For China this is the great unknown. Obviously they could retake the island on their own, albeit suffering casualties, but the question is what U.S. involvement might look like. It could be anything ranging from saber rattling D.C. and not a single shot fired to full-scale war dragging in regional allies (South Korea, Australia, Japan, and others) in the ultimate raison d'etre to try to stop the rise of China. It could break out into a regional war with China and North Korea versus the U.S. and allies who decide it is a fight worth fighting - Japan and South Korea most likely. I think most likely the Chinese will focus on a publicity campaign unless the U.S. is in a severely (historical not seen in the last 100+ years) weakened position, because while annoying, it's not worth the risk of such a huge war. You can basically change a country through influence, so why not just wait and go through things that way?
- OldHand2018 6y ago
  > The U.S. may come to the aid of Taiwan. The big question is to what extent. All pre-revolution government debt has been in default since the revolution. China claims it is the responsibility of Taiwan and Taiwan claims it is the responsibility of China. They owe many trillions to bondholders all over the world. If the two merge, they can't dodge the claims anymore and still be part of the world financial system. It will have to be negotiated, and US law allows the government to collect on behalf of American bondholders. Any settlement will be very painful for China if they insist on taking Taiwan by force.
  - NotSammyHagar 6y ago
    No one cares about debt from.the old China, it's meaningless like debt from nazi Germany or Mussolini's Italy. You need to explain what you mean.
- mytailorisrich 6y ago
  The US will not attack China militarily. Korea and Japan won't either because they clearly have not the strength and, for Japan, are prevented from doing so by their constitution. Frankly it would be suicidal for them to do that so they won't. If Taiwan were to be taken by force it would have serious consequences, politically and economically, but no-one would launch a military attack on China in response. The US, and perhaps others, would likely help Taiwanese forces, though.

> Nevermind potential U.S. involvement. What does this mean?

by jooize 6y ago

> Nevermind potential U.S. involvement. What does this mean?

kindatrue 6y ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Relations_Act https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Relations_Act

ericmay 6y ago

The U.S. may come to the aid of Taiwan. The big question is to what extent. For China this is the great unknown. Obviously they could retake the island on their own, albeit suffering casualties, but the question is what U.S. involvement might look like. It could be anything ranging from saber rattling D.C. and not a single shot fired to full-scale war dragging in regional allies (South Korea, Australia, Japan, and others) in the ultimate raison d'etre to try to stop the rise of China. It could break out into a regional war with China and North Korea versus the U.S. and allies who decide it is a fight worth fighting - Japan and South Korea most likely. I think most likely the Chinese will focus on a publicity campaign unless the U.S. is in a severely (historical not seen in the last 100+ years) weakened position, because while annoying, it's not worth the risk of such a huge war. You can basically change a country through influence, so why not just wait and go through things that way?

OldHand2018 6y ago
> The U.S. may come to the aid of Taiwan. The big question is to what extent. All pre-revolution government debt has been in default since the revolution. China claims it is the responsibility of Taiwan and Taiwan claims it is the responsibility of China. They owe many trillions to bondholders all over the world. If the two merge, they can't dodge the claims anymore and still be part of the world financial system. It will have to be negotiated, and US law allows the government to collect on behalf of American bondholders. Any settlement will be very painful for China if they insist on taking Taiwan by force.
- NotSammyHagar 6y ago
  No one cares about debt from.the old China, it's meaningless like debt from nazi Germany or Mussolini's Italy. You need to explain what you mean.
mytailorisrich 6y ago
The US will not attack China militarily. Korea and Japan won't either because they clearly have not the strength and, for Japan, are prevented from doing so by their constitution. Frankly it would be suicidal for them to do that so they won't. If Taiwan were to be taken by force it would have serious consequences, politically and economically, but no-one would launch a military attack on China in response. The US, and perhaps others, would likely help Taiwanese forces, though.