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I think this would lead to an actual war. Taiwan has weapons, its own military, etc. Hong Kong doesn't. There will be protests, however. Nevermind potential U.S

I think this would lead to an actual war. Taiwan has weapons, its own military, etc. Hong Kong doesn't. There will be protests, however. Nevermind potential U.S. involvement. It's so tragic.

onetimemanytime 6y ago
Agree, Hong Kong fate was sealed in 1990's. But Taiwan will spark a war, and for good reason. Bullets and bombs cannot be ignored and China is not popular in that area. So they'll leave Taiwan alone, IMO, for decades, until /when /if China is sure that they can overpower US military.
- foepys 6y ago
  Nobody, will ever overpower the US military. Not because the US is particularly advanced but because of their nukes. The same applies to the Chinese and Russian militaries and most likely all other nations with nuclear weapons.
  - onetimemanytime 6y ago
    wrong. USA will not use nukes to help Taiwan. The other side has nukes too and can easily point them to major US cities.
    - jki275 6y ago
      Nor will the Chinese attack Taiwan, because Taiwan is supported by a nuclear power.
    - foepys 6y ago
      Then you are not overpowering the US military but the US diplomacy and its softpower. Any direct war between nuclear powers will eventually end with the use of nuclear weapons unless one side stands down.
- nickik 6y ago
  Hong Kong fate was sealed when China turned from the Soviets to the US as a strategic partner and started to adopt non-idiotic economic policies.
basementcat 6y ago
I think it is possible to unify China without bloodshed and war. The way to do it is via social media and the ballot box. Recent history has shown that it is possible to effect major policy changes in representative democracies around the world in this fashion.
- DeonPenny 6y ago
  You are talking as if those would happy in a communist country. It hasn't really worked out in western countries that well we people tried to do this
- polotics 6y ago
  Do you mean to say Xi's crony communist party would somehow get voted out of power on the mainland? (This is a question mark)
- nickik 6y ago
  > Recent history has shown Or has it shown that a losing party will grasp at any straw to explain why they failed? Advertisement has been a major part of democracies for 100s of years.
- ginko 6y ago
  From what I can tell the CCP would never allow a democratic vote on this issue. Even for unification. From their POV eventual reunification is something the populace of Taiwan has no say on.
  - jki275 6y ago
    From their point of view, there is no need for "reunification", as Taiwan is simply a rogue province that will eventually be forced back into line.
  - AnimalMuppet 6y ago
    I agree, but this is kind of self-defeating behavior by the CCP. Human nature being what it is, saying "We own you and you have no say in the matter" elicits a response of "Oh, yeah? We'll see about that". If Taiwan is ever going to unite with China peacefully, it is going to come after China changes its stance.
jooize 6y ago
> Nevermind potential U.S. involvement. What does this mean?
- kindatrue 6y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Relations_Act https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Relations_Act
- ericmay 6y ago
  The U.S. may come to the aid of Taiwan. The big question is to what extent. For China this is the great unknown. Obviously they could retake the island on their own, albeit suffering casualties, but the question is what U.S. involvement might look like. It could be anything ranging from saber rattling D.C. and not a single shot fired to full-scale war dragging in regional allies (South Korea, Australia, Japan, and others) in the ultimate raison d'etre to try to stop the rise of China. It could break out into a regional war with China and North Korea versus the U.S. and allies who decide it is a fight worth fighting - Japan and South Korea most likely. I think most likely the Chinese will focus on a publicity campaign unless the U.S. is in a severely (historical not seen in the last 100+ years) weakened position, because while annoying, it's not worth the risk of such a huge war. You can basically change a country through influence, so why not just wait and go through things that way?
  - OldHand2018 6y ago
    > The U.S. may come to the aid of Taiwan. The big question is to what extent. All pre-revolution government debt has been in default since the revolution. China claims it is the responsibility of Taiwan and Taiwan claims it is the responsibility of China. They owe many trillions to bondholders all over the world. If the two merge, they can't dodge the claims anymore and still be part of the world financial system. It will have to be negotiated, and US law allows the government to collect on behalf of American bondholders. Any settlement will be very painful for China if they insist on taking Taiwan by force.
    - NotSammyHagar 6y ago
petre 6y ago
Here's an insightful analysis about a hypothetical China/Taiwan war: https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/17/taiwan-maoist-military-china-navy-south-china-sea/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/17/taiwan-maoist-military-...

I think this would lead to an actual war. Taiwan has weapons, its own military, etc. Hong Kong doesn't. There will be protests, however. Nevermind potential U.S. involvement. It's so tragic.

onetimemanytime 6y ago

Agree, Hong Kong fate was sealed in 1990's. But Taiwan will spark a war, and for good reason. Bullets and bombs cannot be ignored and China is not popular in that area. So they'll leave Taiwan alone, IMO, for decades, until /when /if China is sure that they can overpower US military.

foepys 6y ago
Nobody, will ever overpower the US military. Not because the US is particularly advanced but because of their nukes. The same applies to the Chinese and Russian militaries and most likely all other nations with nuclear weapons.
- onetimemanytime 6y ago
  wrong. USA will not use nukes to help Taiwan. The other side has nukes too and can easily point them to major US cities.
  - jki275 6y ago
    Nor will the Chinese attack Taiwan, because Taiwan is supported by a nuclear power.
  - foepys 6y ago
    Then you are not overpowering the US military but the US diplomacy and its softpower. Any direct war between nuclear powers will eventually end with the use of nuclear weapons unless one side stands down.
nickik 6y ago
Hong Kong fate was sealed when China turned from the Soviets to the US as a strategic partner and started to adopt non-idiotic economic policies.

basementcat 6y ago

I think it is possible to unify China without bloodshed and war. The way to do it is via social media and the ballot box. Recent history has shown that it is possible to effect major policy changes in representative democracies around the world in this fashion.

DeonPenny 6y ago
You are talking as if those would happy in a communist country. It hasn't really worked out in western countries that well we people tried to do this
polotics 6y ago
Do you mean to say Xi's crony communist party would somehow get voted out of power on the mainland? (This is a question mark)
nickik 6y ago
> Recent history has shown Or has it shown that a losing party will grasp at any straw to explain why they failed? Advertisement has been a major part of democracies for 100s of years.
ginko 6y ago
From what I can tell the CCP would never allow a democratic vote on this issue. Even for unification. From their POV eventual reunification is something the populace of Taiwan has no say on.
- jki275 6y ago
  From their point of view, there is no need for "reunification", as Taiwan is simply a rogue province that will eventually be forced back into line.
- AnimalMuppet 6y ago
  I agree, but this is kind of self-defeating behavior by the CCP. Human nature being what it is, saying "We own you and you have no say in the matter" elicits a response of "Oh, yeah? We'll see about that". If Taiwan is ever going to unite with China peacefully, it is going to come after China changes its stance.

jooize 6y ago

> Nevermind potential U.S. involvement. What does this mean?

kindatrue 6y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Relations_Act https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Relations_Act
ericmay 6y ago
The U.S. may come to the aid of Taiwan. The big question is to what extent. For China this is the great unknown. Obviously they could retake the island on their own, albeit suffering casualties, but the question is what U.S. involvement might look like. It could be anything ranging from saber rattling D.C. and not a single shot fired to full-scale war dragging in regional allies (South Korea, Australia, Japan, and others) in the ultimate raison d'etre to try to stop the rise of China. It could break out into a regional war with China and North Korea versus the U.S. and allies who decide it is a fight worth fighting - Japan and South Korea most likely. I think most likely the Chinese will focus on a publicity campaign unless the U.S. is in a severely (historical not seen in the last 100+ years) weakened position, because while annoying, it's not worth the risk of such a huge war. You can basically change a country through influence, so why not just wait and go through things that way?
- OldHand2018 6y ago
  > The U.S. may come to the aid of Taiwan. The big question is to what extent. All pre-revolution government debt has been in default since the revolution. China claims it is the responsibility of Taiwan and Taiwan claims it is the responsibility of China. They owe many trillions to bondholders all over the world. If the two merge, they can't dodge the claims anymore and still be part of the world financial system. It will have to be negotiated, and US law allows the government to collect on behalf of American bondholders. Any settlement will be very painful for China if they insist on taking Taiwan by force.
  - NotSammyHagar 6y ago

petre 6y ago

Here's an insightful analysis about a hypothetical China/Taiwan war: https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/17/taiwan-maoist-military-china-navy-south-china-sea/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/17/taiwan-maoist-military-...