I can't find it anymore but there was an article here published a few days ago that essentially estimated whether infections with SARS-CoV-2 come from homogeneo

I can't find it anymore but there was an article here published a few days ago that essentially estimated whether infections with SARS-CoV-2 come from homogeneous transmission, i.e. everyone who has it infects a few people, or from highly concentrated transmission, i.e. there are a few people who infect a large number of others. The latter seems to be the case for SARS-CoV-2. This to me makes me believe 2. is correct. We know that this disease is non-lethal for the large majority of people below 40-50. It is thus not unthinkable that it was able to spread widely in those groups before finally hitting more vulnerable parts of the population all at once in March, leading to the devastating effects we observed. Additionally, in a model where everyone is equally likely to be infected, the number of deaths would reflect the percentage of people having the disease. That is why people think there is an upper limit of a few percent of infected. This however breaks down entirely if there are clusters of cases within different subpopulations.