4 ms·

Are they calculating how much the droplets travel, or how much viral load someone gets at a specific distance? This sounds confusing. If I remember correctly,

Are they calculating how much the droplets travel, or how much viral load someone gets at a specific distance? This sounds confusing. If I remember correctly, R0 for the virus was around 3 before it was controlled. Is it really plausible that a virus that can spread through droplets due to asymptomatic people breathing in the street, where those droplets travel 6m, would have an R0 as low as 3? Wouldn't it just infect everybody immediately? What am I missing?

Retric 6y ago
People who have a significant risk of death don’t care about R factor, they just want to avoid infection. Reasonable precautions for the vast majority of people don’t seem like enough if you’re 70+.
- Ensorceled 6y ago
  What is your point? That we should spread inaccurate information because there are immunocompromised people?
  - Retric 6y ago
    What inaccuracies are you referring to? It’s known that people have gotten infected while standing much further than 6 feet apart. If your at 20+ times the risk of death than the general population and retired then long term self quarantine is a serious consideration. That represents a significant quality of life cost, but I would hardly call such people paranoid.
  - Ensorceled 6y ago
    EDIT: The comment I'm replying to was edited after my comment and the "Reasonable precautions for the vast majority of people don’t seem like enough if you’re 70+." added.
- perf1 6y ago
  Who are these people at risk exactly? I think there isn't enough talk about it. There are studies now that show that zero carb and intermittent fasting can reverse type 2 diabetes. But nobody seams to suggest to people at risk to try to eat less sugar.
  - tonyedgecombe 6y ago
    I'm pretty sure the first thing people are told after being diagnosed with type 2 diabetes is to control their carb intake.
    - s9w 6y ago
      I actually don't think that's true. But that might depend on the country, doctors etc. Many still give the exact wrong advice of limiting fat intake, focusing on "slow burning carbs" and all that.
  - Jemm 6y ago
    I tell my I’ll and overweight friends this whenever they complain of their illness. It makes me unpopular but I feel like I am not a true friend unless I speak up.
jfoster 6y ago
Based on those parameters, I would agree with you. I am wondering if the R0 was really as low as 3 prior to the virus being controlled, though. Any R0 measurement will depend upon the number of cases, which has always been fairly unknown with covid due to the asymptomatic cases. I think there's also a tendency to think about R0 as something that applies in any environment, but this won't be true. It will vary a lot based on air flow, indoors/outdoors, etc. As a result of this, you'll have instances where one carrier infected 10 or more people due to being in close proximity with unfavourable air flow, even if the average carrier only infects around 3 - 5 or thereabouts. I always think about smokers for this type of thing. The particles are probably quite different (I hope droplets don't carry quite as well as smoke!) and so perhaps there is an adjustment that needs to be made, but in certain environments you will see & smell the smoke from a smoker a lot more than other environments. This will also depend on your proximity and airflow.
- WalterSear 6y ago
  The confusing issue here is the dispersion factor: the variability between infectiousness of carriers, which appears to be quite high in the case of covid-19: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all# https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19...
creato 6y ago
> What am I missing? Probabilities? I'm sure it's possible that someone asymptomatic breathing while walking down the sidewalk infects a bunch of people. That doesn't mean it isn't also rare and maybe not a significant factor in the overall picture of the virus. There are likely 10s of millions of people with the virus at this point. There are probably a few cases out there where they caught it through their bedroom window from someone asymptomatic wearing a mask on a sidewalk 4 floors below. That doesn't mean masks are pointless or that asymptomatic people spread the virus just as easily as symptomatic people or that everyone needs to shut their windows.

Retric 6y ago

People who have a significant risk of death don’t care about R factor, they just want to avoid infection. Reasonable precautions for the vast majority of people don’t seem like enough if you’re 70+.

Ensorceled 6y ago
What is your point? That we should spread inaccurate information because there are immunocompromised people?
- Retric 6y ago
  What inaccuracies are you referring to? It’s known that people have gotten infected while standing much further than 6 feet apart. If your at 20+ times the risk of death than the general population and retired then long term self quarantine is a serious consideration. That represents a significant quality of life cost, but I would hardly call such people paranoid.
- Ensorceled 6y ago
  EDIT: The comment I'm replying to was edited after my comment and the "Reasonable precautions for the vast majority of people don’t seem like enough if you’re 70+." added.
perf1 6y ago
Who are these people at risk exactly? I think there isn't enough talk about it. There are studies now that show that zero carb and intermittent fasting can reverse type 2 diabetes. But nobody seams to suggest to people at risk to try to eat less sugar.
- tonyedgecombe 6y ago
  I'm pretty sure the first thing people are told after being diagnosed with type 2 diabetes is to control their carb intake.
  - s9w 6y ago
    I actually don't think that's true. But that might depend on the country, doctors etc. Many still give the exact wrong advice of limiting fat intake, focusing on "slow burning carbs" and all that.
- Jemm 6y ago
  I tell my I’ll and overweight friends this whenever they complain of their illness. It makes me unpopular but I feel like I am not a true friend unless I speak up.

jfoster 6y ago

Based on those parameters, I would agree with you. I am wondering if the R0 was really as low as 3 prior to the virus being controlled, though. Any R0 measurement will depend upon the number of cases, which has always been fairly unknown with covid due to the asymptomatic cases. I think there's also a tendency to think about R0 as something that applies in any environment, but this won't be true. It will vary a lot based on air flow, indoors/outdoors, etc. As a result of this, you'll have instances where one carrier infected 10 or more people due to being in close proximity with unfavourable air flow, even if the average carrier only infects around 3 - 5 or thereabouts. I always think about smokers for this type of thing. The particles are probably quite different (I hope droplets don't carry quite as well as smoke!) and so perhaps there is an adjustment that needs to be made, but in certain environments you will see & smell the smoke from a smoker a lot more than other environments. This will also depend on your proximity and airflow.

WalterSear 6y ago
The confusing issue here is the dispersion factor: the variability between infectiousness of carriers, which appears to be quite high in the case of covid-19: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all# https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19...

creato 6y ago

> What am I missing? Probabilities? I'm sure it's possible that someone asymptomatic breathing while walking down the sidewalk infects a bunch of people. That doesn't mean it isn't also rare and maybe not a significant factor in the overall picture of the virus. There are likely 10s of millions of people with the virus at this point. There are probably a few cases out there where they caught it through their bedroom window from someone asymptomatic wearing a mask on a sidewalk 4 floors below. That doesn't mean masks are pointless or that asymptomatic people spread the virus just as easily as symptomatic people or that everyone needs to shut their windows.