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In software products and AI/Machine Learning China is at best half a decade behind the US. In hardware and robotics, China is already way ahead of the US (excep

In software products and AI/Machine Learning China is at best half a decade behind the US. In hardware and robotics, China is already way ahead of the US (except certain fundamental blocks like semiconductors). Anecdotally, I remember competing against Chinese robotics teams as a college student. It's a myth that the Chinese are not innovative - their engineering is top notch and they routed the competition with hardware tech that had never been seen before in an academic setting. More surprisingly, they freely share their designs with other Chinese teams, cultivating a culture of open hardware. Here's a video of a Chinese robot throwing balls through a hoop and landing them on a platform: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqUZgMrl7qQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqUZgMrl7qQ

scarmig 6y ago
I'd be very curious to understand where China stands vis a vis US military tech. You never know how things would play out until they actually do, but it is clear that China has put their bets on "disruptive" military tech, instead of dropping tens of billions onto carrier fleets.
- mardifoufs 6y ago
  The US military manages to do both because it can afford to. Carrier fleets are pretty much required for global military force projection, something China isn't even close to have the capability to start thinking about at this stage. The chinese military is way, way behind in pretty much all regards and even going for "disruptive tech" won't do them much good when they can't even manage to design/produce a working jet engine for their fighter jets that isn't complete garbage. They basically resorted to copying 1980s russian designed engines, but couldn't get the metallurgy right so they just imported them. You can't start to compare with the US military capability if even Russia can be much better than you at producing something as basic (in terms of military needs) as a jet engine
  - gexla 6y ago
    Right, any comparison would need to be done within the context of what they are optimizing for. China's priority right now seems to be securing the S. China Sea. There's also nuclear weapons as a concern. I'm not sure we're quite talking mutually assured destruction, but we wouldn't want to go there. So far, nuclear deterrence has held up. There's a lot of ways to fight a war. Conventional military technology likely wouldn't be involved on any battleground we would find ourselves on with China.
  - TheColorYellow 6y ago
    What about cyber capabilities? For a hot war, China seems underequipped, but this doesn't seem the most relevant anyways. Cyber and proxy war-like capabilities seem more important in this day and age. From what I can tell China leads in cyber capabilities versus the US. And they've been able to expand in the South China Sea without much retaliation so far, so maybe they're even doing alright on the other.
  - LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
    I've heard/read of that too, and remember having a cognitive dissonance when reading about a chinese company offering some very advanced metallurgy to german companies, some time not longer than a year ago. I can't find it anymore now, just https://3dprint.com/266401/formnext-pm-south-china-partners-with-prominent-industry-groups-for-debut-edition/ https://3dprint.com/266401/formnext-pm-south-china-partners-... but it is not the same, just in a similar domain.
- LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
  Long Dong
paganel 6y ago
> It's a myth that the Chinese are not innovative I think that the self-told Western media narrative (of the Chinese not being innovative and only being copy-cats) has cut at least 5 to 10 years of the advantage that the West used to have in front of China. Had the decisions makers in the West been more aware of the real innovative minds/processes active in China maybe those decision makers would have taken more pro-active steps earlier on, instead they chose to sleep on their laurels. I think a similar thing happened to the US car industry in relation to the Japanese car industry in the '70s and early '80s, with known devastating results for the US car industry.
- m463 6y ago
  I wonder how many innovative Chinese thinkers can behave in innovative ways in china? Is there (true) cultural support?
gexla 6y ago
Maybe their curriculum gives them more time to work on these things? I couldn't imagine being a college student and doing much outside of a typical college workload. You're going to be good at what you train for. An analogy for the US might be putting a division 1 football team against a division 3 team. If one team does dramatically better than another team, I would look at training and resources. If there's a big gap in that preparation, then it's not a good comparison. If I'm going to college and I'm putting all my time into something other than a conventional pursuit of a college degree, then I'm going to question why I'm there and if I would be better off elsewhere. This assumes an undergrad experience. I know nothing about college beyond that point. All I wanted to do was get my degree and move on.
- blueblisters 6y ago
  > Maybe their curriculum gives them more time to work on these things? I should have mentioned that I didn't go to college in the States. This could be true, a lot of the technical college experience in some parts of Asia involves doing practical stuff. In my part of the world, the theory is often lags practice because the curriculum rarely keeps up with state of the art in academia or industry. > If one team does dramatically better than another team, I would look at training and resources. They were definitely better funded than other teams. They also had unrestricted access to the biggest hardware markets in the world, and perhaps some bleeding edge automation technology from the industry. > If I'm going to college and I'm putting all my time into something other than a conventional pursuit of a college degree, then I'm going to question why I'm there and if I would be better off elsewhere. Yeah I guess the average US undergrad experience in Computer Science/Engineering is more focused on preparing you for a job and/or grad school. The coursework is rigorous enough that it prevents you from going for more hobbyist pursuits. America's path-breaking innovation comes from its Science funding and Graduate Programs, and that's where China and other emerging powers have a lot of catching up to do.
BobbyJo 6y ago
How can they be way ahead of us yet behind us in the most important and fundamental ways? That's like saying a car is the fastest car except it's engine. I feel like China sometimes looks more advanced, but in actuality is far behind. It's easy to look advanced when your technology ecosystem is highly centralized and on display for the purpose of bolstering national pride. In the US the ecosystem is fractured and exists solely to provide value. The tech isn't there for show, it's there for competition and profit.
- LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
  When thinking about Hollywood, Disney, Pixar, Industrial Light & Magic, Times Square in NYC while at the same time there are 'food deserts' not in some sparsely inhabited parts of 'fly-over-country' but metropolitan regions, i tend to disagree. Furthermore, profit for whom? Eternal competition is tiring, and may even end in a race to the bottom. SPLAT!
  - BobbyJo 6y ago
    Profit for everyone? The general premise of capitalism is you have to make something someone else values. If more people get value from it, and they get more value from it, you make more money, so you're very incentivized to benefit as many people as much as possible.
baja_blast 6y ago
> In hardware and robotics, China is already way ahead of the US Boston Dynamics is far ahead of anyone in robotics, and I can't really see an argument for being more advanced in computing while being behind in semiconductors/chips since that's all that really matters. Also in other areas of tech such as aerospace companies like SpaceX are only further increasing the technological gap.

scarmig 6y ago

I'd be very curious to understand where China stands vis a vis US military tech. You never know how things would play out until they actually do, but it is clear that China has put their bets on "disruptive" military tech, instead of dropping tens of billions onto carrier fleets.

mardifoufs 6y ago
The US military manages to do both because it can afford to. Carrier fleets are pretty much required for global military force projection, something China isn't even close to have the capability to start thinking about at this stage. The chinese military is way, way behind in pretty much all regards and even going for "disruptive tech" won't do them much good when they can't even manage to design/produce a working jet engine for their fighter jets that isn't complete garbage. They basically resorted to copying 1980s russian designed engines, but couldn't get the metallurgy right so they just imported them. You can't start to compare with the US military capability if even Russia can be much better than you at producing something as basic (in terms of military needs) as a jet engine
- gexla 6y ago
  Right, any comparison would need to be done within the context of what they are optimizing for. China's priority right now seems to be securing the S. China Sea. There's also nuclear weapons as a concern. I'm not sure we're quite talking mutually assured destruction, but we wouldn't want to go there. So far, nuclear deterrence has held up. There's a lot of ways to fight a war. Conventional military technology likely wouldn't be involved on any battleground we would find ourselves on with China.
- TheColorYellow 6y ago
  What about cyber capabilities? For a hot war, China seems underequipped, but this doesn't seem the most relevant anyways. Cyber and proxy war-like capabilities seem more important in this day and age. From what I can tell China leads in cyber capabilities versus the US. And they've been able to expand in the South China Sea without much retaliation so far, so maybe they're even doing alright on the other.
- LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
  I've heard/read of that too, and remember having a cognitive dissonance when reading about a chinese company offering some very advanced metallurgy to german companies, some time not longer than a year ago. I can't find it anymore now, just https://3dprint.com/266401/formnext-pm-south-china-partners-with-prominent-industry-groups-for-debut-edition/ https://3dprint.com/266401/formnext-pm-south-china-partners-... but it is not the same, just in a similar domain.
LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
Long Dong

paganel 6y ago

> It's a myth that the Chinese are not innovative I think that the self-told Western media narrative (of the Chinese not being innovative and only being copy-cats) has cut at least 5 to 10 years of the advantage that the West used to have in front of China. Had the decisions makers in the West been more aware of the real innovative minds/processes active in China maybe those decision makers would have taken more pro-active steps earlier on, instead they chose to sleep on their laurels. I think a similar thing happened to the US car industry in relation to the Japanese car industry in the '70s and early '80s, with known devastating results for the US car industry.

m463 6y ago
I wonder how many innovative Chinese thinkers can behave in innovative ways in china? Is there (true) cultural support?

gexla 6y ago

Maybe their curriculum gives them more time to work on these things? I couldn't imagine being a college student and doing much outside of a typical college workload. You're going to be good at what you train for. An analogy for the US might be putting a division 1 football team against a division 3 team. If one team does dramatically better than another team, I would look at training and resources. If there's a big gap in that preparation, then it's not a good comparison. If I'm going to college and I'm putting all my time into something other than a conventional pursuit of a college degree, then I'm going to question why I'm there and if I would be better off elsewhere. This assumes an undergrad experience. I know nothing about college beyond that point. All I wanted to do was get my degree and move on.

blueblisters 6y ago
> Maybe their curriculum gives them more time to work on these things? I should have mentioned that I didn't go to college in the States. This could be true, a lot of the technical college experience in some parts of Asia involves doing practical stuff. In my part of the world, the theory is often lags practice because the curriculum rarely keeps up with state of the art in academia or industry. > If one team does dramatically better than another team, I would look at training and resources. They were definitely better funded than other teams. They also had unrestricted access to the biggest hardware markets in the world, and perhaps some bleeding edge automation technology from the industry. > If I'm going to college and I'm putting all my time into something other than a conventional pursuit of a college degree, then I'm going to question why I'm there and if I would be better off elsewhere. Yeah I guess the average US undergrad experience in Computer Science/Engineering is more focused on preparing you for a job and/or grad school. The coursework is rigorous enough that it prevents you from going for more hobbyist pursuits. America's path-breaking innovation comes from its Science funding and Graduate Programs, and that's where China and other emerging powers have a lot of catching up to do.

BobbyJo 6y ago

How can they be way ahead of us yet behind us in the most important and fundamental ways? That's like saying a car is the fastest car except it's engine. I feel like China sometimes looks more advanced, but in actuality is far behind. It's easy to look advanced when your technology ecosystem is highly centralized and on display for the purpose of bolstering national pride. In the US the ecosystem is fractured and exists solely to provide value. The tech isn't there for show, it's there for competition and profit.

LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
When thinking about Hollywood, Disney, Pixar, Industrial Light & Magic, Times Square in NYC while at the same time there are 'food deserts' not in some sparsely inhabited parts of 'fly-over-country' but metropolitan regions, i tend to disagree. Furthermore, profit for whom? Eternal competition is tiring, and may even end in a race to the bottom. SPLAT!
- BobbyJo 6y ago
  Profit for everyone? The general premise of capitalism is you have to make something someone else values. If more people get value from it, and they get more value from it, you make more money, so you're very incentivized to benefit as many people as much as possible.

baja_blast 6y ago

> In hardware and robotics, China is already way ahead of the US Boston Dynamics is far ahead of anyone in robotics, and I can't really see an argument for being more advanced in computing while being behind in semiconductors/chips since that's all that really matters. Also in other areas of tech such as aerospace companies like SpaceX are only further increasing the technological gap.