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It comes down to which country people prefer to live in. I suspect a lot of of foreign money will be leaving China soon, if they can keep peace and prosper with

It comes down to which country people prefer to live in. I suspect a lot of of foreign money will be leaving China soon, if they can keep peace and prosper without depending on the west,they stand a solid chance against the US. Make no mistake,the CCP has no intention of being self-contained, if you are not with them,you are against them. Their intention is hostile. The dramatic slow collapse of the US is what enables their success. Americans and foreigners no longer think it is the land of opportunities. Fears,divisions,mistrust,avoidable tragedies all over. In China they'll just suppress anything negative. They've already positioned themselves well for internal subversion of american government and society. I just hope things remain peaceful.

scarmig 6y ago
One interesting thing is how much of a foil the US is to China and how it acts as a legitimizer. Whatever failings the CPC has, they can point to American government and make plausible claims that at least they aren't that incompetent. And no one's heard of any evidence to the contrary.
baybal2 6y ago
> I suspect a lot of of foreign money will be leaving China soon I do to, a giant portion of China's current account is operational capital of big multinationals. When they will start withdrawing money, Yuan will fall through the floor for a year, or two before rebalancing. This will give a great boost to China's exporters.
- badrabbit 6y ago
  But can anything replace the west's unending consumer appetite? As big as they are, can their own people consume enough? I think a lot also depends on US elections.
  - baybal2 6y ago
    That's the question. Either China tries to grow more itself, or it will seek to boost trade with whomever is left in the non-aligned camp. Boosting own consumption didn't work much for China in the past Selling more to the few of its allies will not work either for the sane reason. China's only option is to do a Marshall Plan 2.0 in the developing world, and hope to dramatically reshape their economies, in hopes of them actually making these money, and just borrowing to buy Chinese trinkets.
- snogaraleal 6y ago
  The Yuan is heavily managed. If there was no PBOC intervention in FX markets the Yuan would fall 50%, and that’s before any capital even leaves. The PBOC is running low on FX reserves relative to the demand that they have to serve. I’ve seen a few analysts talk about a dollar shortage in China. That’s why they’re suffocating businesses in bureaucracy when they want to get their money out of China. One could say the capital will never be allowed to leave, because really it’s like it went into a black hole within the Chinese financial system, ie it doesn’t exist, it exists only nominally in whatever bank the company happens to deal with. On top of that there is a sizable amount of dollar-denominated debt in the Chinese domestic system, so a mega deval of the yuan could be mayhem.
moreorless 6y ago
> Make no mistake,the CCP has no intention of being self-contained, if you are not with them,you are against them. Their intention is hostile. One country _might_ think that. One country right out proclaimed it. "You are either with us or against us." - George Bush
- badrabbit 6y ago
  Bush was 100% correct, you either support the war against al-qaeda or you support it. Indifference means terrorists can use your country/resources, being hostile to them means you're "with" america. It doesn't mean you support everything America does,it just means you support the need to combat terrorism.
  - LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
    You know? That thing wasn't born by itself from the virginity of Holy Mother Mary, but instead enabled by the fu..... err messing around of the Cocaine Import Agency & Co. in internal and external affairs of other sovereign countries since decades. Seems the world police man is too lazy to clean its own shit up?
    - badrabbit 6y ago
      Not at all, you seem to be missing a lot of historical context here. The cold war was a thing,as was WW2. You should be happy the US played world cop else it would be russia and china playing world ruler. You are extremely misinformed, the US was superbly pissed off at 9/11 but Al-qaeda terrorized europe,africa, SE asia and even china. They declared a "holy" war and used that pretext to attack the US and anyone supporting the US or Israel. The CIA are pretty terrible ,but hey..why not compare them with the KGB and ex-soviet states? How about modern russia and it's treatment of it's neighbors , straight up invading countries on a whim and annexing their territory. You should check out how they toppled Ukraine's entire government before the current one also because they're using that playbook against trump. Let's compare apples to apples, you can disagree with US policy just fine without claiming the world would be a better place without their intervention policy. Also,FYI, the pretext of interventionism is WW2, you know,how if someone say toppled Nazis or Mussolini before they went out of hand hundreds of millions of lives could be saved? A 3rd world country falling for say Russia or China (even by proxy) means Russia or China will play economic or direct warfare which will lead into a bay of pigs type of a stand off where either you let you let them point a nuclear gun to your head and hope they don't shoot or you stand by and let them invade your allies. Oh and which world policing are you talking about? The serbian genocide? Because US lead but it was NATO just like afghanistan,so it was more like NATO policing. It's ridiculous that you expect the US or any major power to not attempt to interfere in other countries politics to have an outcome that benefits their country. Every country including UK,Germany,Netherlands,France,China,India,Vietnam and Russia do this, they just don't try and succeed as much as the US.

scarmig 6y ago

One interesting thing is how much of a foil the US is to China and how it acts as a legitimizer. Whatever failings the CPC has, they can point to American government and make plausible claims that at least they aren't that incompetent. And no one's heard of any evidence to the contrary.

baybal2 6y ago

> I suspect a lot of of foreign money will be leaving China soon I do to, a giant portion of China's current account is operational capital of big multinationals. When they will start withdrawing money, Yuan will fall through the floor for a year, or two before rebalancing. This will give a great boost to China's exporters.

badrabbit 6y ago
But can anything replace the west's unending consumer appetite? As big as they are, can their own people consume enough? I think a lot also depends on US elections.
- baybal2 6y ago
  That's the question. Either China tries to grow more itself, or it will seek to boost trade with whomever is left in the non-aligned camp. Boosting own consumption didn't work much for China in the past Selling more to the few of its allies will not work either for the sane reason. China's only option is to do a Marshall Plan 2.0 in the developing world, and hope to dramatically reshape their economies, in hopes of them actually making these money, and just borrowing to buy Chinese trinkets.
snogaraleal 6y ago
The Yuan is heavily managed. If there was no PBOC intervention in FX markets the Yuan would fall 50%, and that’s before any capital even leaves. The PBOC is running low on FX reserves relative to the demand that they have to serve. I’ve seen a few analysts talk about a dollar shortage in China. That’s why they’re suffocating businesses in bureaucracy when they want to get their money out of China. One could say the capital will never be allowed to leave, because really it’s like it went into a black hole within the Chinese financial system, ie it doesn’t exist, it exists only nominally in whatever bank the company happens to deal with. On top of that there is a sizable amount of dollar-denominated debt in the Chinese domestic system, so a mega deval of the yuan could be mayhem.

moreorless 6y ago

> Make no mistake,the CCP has no intention of being self-contained, if you are not with them,you are against them. Their intention is hostile. One country _might_ think that. One country right out proclaimed it. "You are either with us or against us." - George Bush

badrabbit 6y ago
Bush was 100% correct, you either support the war against al-qaeda or you support it. Indifference means terrorists can use your country/resources, being hostile to them means you're "with" america. It doesn't mean you support everything America does,it just means you support the need to combat terrorism.
- LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
  You know? That thing wasn't born by itself from the virginity of Holy Mother Mary, but instead enabled by the fu..... err messing around of the Cocaine Import Agency & Co. in internal and external affairs of other sovereign countries since decades. Seems the world police man is too lazy to clean its own shit up?
  - badrabbit 6y ago
    Not at all, you seem to be missing a lot of historical context here. The cold war was a thing,as was WW2. You should be happy the US played world cop else it would be russia and china playing world ruler. You are extremely misinformed, the US was superbly pissed off at 9/11 but Al-qaeda terrorized europe,africa, SE asia and even china. They declared a "holy" war and used that pretext to attack the US and anyone supporting the US or Israel. The CIA are pretty terrible ,but hey..why not compare them with the KGB and ex-soviet states? How about modern russia and it's treatment of it's neighbors , straight up invading countries on a whim and annexing their territory. You should check out how they toppled Ukraine's entire government before the current one also because they're using that playbook against trump. Let's compare apples to apples, you can disagree with US policy just fine without claiming the world would be a better place without their intervention policy. Also,FYI, the pretext of interventionism is WW2, you know,how if someone say toppled Nazis or Mussolini before they went out of hand hundreds of millions of lives could be saved? A 3rd world country falling for say Russia or China (even by proxy) means Russia or China will play economic or direct warfare which will lead into a bay of pigs type of a stand off where either you let you let them point a nuclear gun to your head and hope they don't shoot or you stand by and let them invade your allies. Oh and which world policing are you talking about? The serbian genocide? Because US lead but it was NATO just like afghanistan,so it was more like NATO policing. It's ridiculous that you expect the US or any major power to not attempt to interfere in other countries politics to have an outcome that benefits their country. Every country including UK,Germany,Netherlands,France,China,India,Vietnam and Russia do this, they just don't try and succeed as much as the US.