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In the past, the reason seems to have been fear of high inflation. Conjure trillions of dollars into being every year, and you'll end up with roaring inflation
by aazaa 6y ago
In the past, the reason seems to have been fear of high inflation. Conjure trillions of dollars into being every year, and you'll end up with roaring inflation and one heck of financial hangover. The country lived through such an episode in the 1970s-1980s and it was a miserable time.
However, that reasoning is eroding bit by bit. It really got going in the 1960s - 1980s with the Johnson, Nixon, and Reagan administration, which acclimated the country to structural budget deficits in the name of national security and Great Society aspirations. With some (apparent) time off during the late 1990s, the budget deficit as a percent of GDP has risen and risen:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSGDA188S https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSGDA188S
The Fed's mission currently is to slay the dollar bull, which is wreaking havoc with world financial markets.[1] Monetizing the entire Federal budget would go a long way to wrestling that animal to the ground.
There are many half-steps that could be taken along the way:
- payroll tax holiday, made permanent at some point
- income tax holiday, just extend the 2020 tax filing deadline indefinitely
- middle class tax cuts
- still more corporate tax cuts
All of these steps can be financed by the Fed, which simply buys the debt issued by the Treasury, keeps it on its balance sheet charging close to zero interest. Then dollar depreciation works its magic. Rolled over long enough with high enough inflation and the federal debt just goes away like a miracle.
The problem is this. After you've freed policy makers of any restraint whatsoever when it comes to spending, what's the endgame?
History has some lessons there, and they are all bad. The Weimar Republic, Zimbabwe, and Venezuela may be relevant.
Then again, none of these countries held the world's reserve currency when dabbling with ultra-expansive monetary policy.
America is the Saudi Arabia of dollars. We determine production. The world can't seem to get enough of the stuff, and it's required as an ultimate raw material for just about everything. What happens if the US absolutely floods the world with dollars? Will they run away in fear? Or will they embrace the debt relief and rejoice in the good times?
[1] https://www.lynalden.com/global-dollar-short-squeeze/ https://www.lynalden.com/global-dollar-short-squeeze/
- naveen99 6y ago> What happens if the US absolutely floods the world with dollars? Will they run away in fear? Not if some of those dollars are a hand out to other central banks. Right now they are calling them swap lines.