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> having children is essential to maintain the social welfare state That's not actually true though - immigration happily supports the required population grow

> having children is essential to maintain the social welfare state That's not actually true though - immigration happily supports the required population growth. When the whole world stops reproducing we may need a plan B, but that's not a problem right now.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
jlawson 6y ago
It is a problem right now. Look at the map [0]. Aside from some minor exceptions, the whole world is at or below replacement rates, except sub-Saharan Africa. Look at the other map [1]. Those are the places with the lowest IQ in the world. Some exceptional individuals aside, Africa isn't going to replace China or India as a source of mass high-quality immigrants. So as soon as China and India develop a bit, and as their low birth rates set in, their people will stop leaving and that'll be it. There will still be poaching of the best but there won't be mass pools of capable people willing to move in to fill the bottom of your social pyramid. What can't go on forever won't. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependent_territories_by_birth_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_d... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nations_and_intelligence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nations_and_intelligence
- 411111111111111 6y ago
  The world population increased from 2.5 billion in 1950 to almost 8billion today and you're worried about birth date? Really? Let it decrease and hopefully we'll get back into a more sustainable population size.
  - cmurf 6y ago
    How do you grow an economy with negative birth rates?
    - ryanwaggoner 6y ago
      Productivity gains. Global GDP per capita has exploded since 1950.
- SketchySeaBeast 6y ago
  You don't think the same socioeconomic forces will come into play on other developing nations as they follow the same sort of progression as China and India? Are you arguing that Africa is just inherently less intelligent?
RestlessMind 6y ago
Immigration also requires someone having children, just in a different country. And the birth rate is already declining across the world [1]. So it is still kind of selfish, at a country level, to not have kids of your own but let the other countries go through the trouble of having and raising kids only to lure them once they are ready to contribute to the society. [1] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN
flukus 6y ago
To a large extent immigration (along with internal migration) and the pressure it puts on real estate costs have been responsible for the drop in birth rates. I know plenty of people that would have had kids if they'd had the financial stability and didn't require both parent working full time. But the current generation id far poorer than their parents where it counts. > When the whole world stops reproducing we may need a plan B, but that's not a problem right now. Regardless of reproduction rates this will happen sooner than you think. As India and China become more developed emigrating becomes less and less desirable as the gap between risk and reward shrinks. After that there is no pool of immigrants with a similar size, sub-saharan Africa will likely become one but the educational standard of that population will likely rise in a much more staggered fashion, it will never match the numbers we saw from India and China.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

jlawson 6y ago

It is a problem right now. Look at the map [0]. Aside from some minor exceptions, the whole world is at or below replacement rates, except sub-Saharan Africa. Look at the other map [1]. Those are the places with the lowest IQ in the world. Some exceptional individuals aside, Africa isn't going to replace China or India as a source of mass high-quality immigrants. So as soon as China and India develop a bit, and as their low birth rates set in, their people will stop leaving and that'll be it. There will still be poaching of the best but there won't be mass pools of capable people willing to move in to fill the bottom of your social pyramid. What can't go on forever won't. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependent_territories_by_birth_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_d... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nations_and_intelligence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nations_and_intelligence

411111111111111 6y ago
The world population increased from 2.5 billion in 1950 to almost 8billion today and you're worried about birth date? Really? Let it decrease and hopefully we'll get back into a more sustainable population size.
- cmurf 6y ago
  How do you grow an economy with negative birth rates?
  - ryanwaggoner 6y ago
    Productivity gains. Global GDP per capita has exploded since 1950.
SketchySeaBeast 6y ago
You don't think the same socioeconomic forces will come into play on other developing nations as they follow the same sort of progression as China and India? Are you arguing that Africa is just inherently less intelligent?

RestlessMind 6y ago

Immigration also requires someone having children, just in a different country. And the birth rate is already declining across the world [1]. So it is still kind of selfish, at a country level, to not have kids of your own but let the other countries go through the trouble of having and raising kids only to lure them once they are ready to contribute to the society. [1] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN

flukus 6y ago

To a large extent immigration (along with internal migration) and the pressure it puts on real estate costs have been responsible for the drop in birth rates. I know plenty of people that would have had kids if they'd had the financial stability and didn't require both parent working full time. But the current generation id far poorer than their parents where it counts. > When the whole world stops reproducing we may need a plan B, but that's not a problem right now. Regardless of reproduction rates this will happen sooner than you think. As India and China become more developed emigrating becomes less and less desirable as the gap between risk and reward shrinks. After that there is no pool of immigrants with a similar size, sub-saharan Africa will likely become one but the educational standard of that population will likely rise in a much more staggered fashion, it will never match the numbers we saw from India and China.