2 ms·
One of the fascinating and tragic aspects of tropical medicine that the current pandemic has illuminated is that understanding of emerging diseases is largely o
by legerdemain 6y ago
One of the fascinating and tragic aspects of tropical medicine that the current pandemic has illuminated is that understanding of emerging diseases is largely observational, incremental, and slow. The observational aspect in particular is mostly accidental and relies on either getting lucky enough to observe something or having a large enough pool of cases to look at. We literally cannot say anything with certainty about the course of the disease on a time scale longer than a year.
Does the disease produce immunity and how long might it last? Well, only as long as we have been able to observe a patent who has recovered. So, 6-7 months?
What are potential chronic complications that can result from the disease? We have little clue, because literally no one on Earth has had more than 6-7 months of medical history with this disease.
- FuckButtons 6y agoJust because we don’t have direct evidence, doesn’t mean we don’t know anything. We can make educated guesses and talk about what is more or less likely. For example, it’s less likely that immunity will last for 7 months, its more likely to last for a few years. For the majority of people who catch the virus and have a mild response to it, it’s unlikely they will have long term negative health consequences. Just because we don’t have concrete proof yet, doesn’t mean that all possibilities are equally likely to happen.