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The "cliff-edge" hasn't materialized because the UK is in a negotiated transition period during which nothing changes. That ends on December 31st, 2020. On Janu
by cstross 6y ago
The "cliff-edge" hasn't materialized because the UK is in a negotiated transition period during which nothing changes. That ends on December 31st, 2020. On January 1st, new arrangements are supposed to come into force -- except they haven't been agreed yet, apart from a customs barrier within the UK (between Northern Ireland and the mainland).
Meanwhile -- before COVID19 -- Sterling devalued by about 20%, the government began borrowing heavily to cover a yawning revenue gap, an economic slowdown cost the UK economy more than the gross total of all UK payments into EU funds since joining in 1974 (many of which were redistributed right back in the UK), and we have a prime minister who, when told that the Confederation of British Industry was worried about his Brexit policies, famously said "f*ck business".
Remember February/March, when everyone was sitting paralysed in the oncoming headlights of COVID19, wondering if it was going to be bad and if it was going to be necessary to make any changes? That's where we are with the end of the Brexit transition period, right now.
- SiempreViernes 6y agoTo be fair, "cliff edge" is not a very accurate description of how it will play out in practice: the effects did not kick in as sharply and consistently as they do going over an edge, and there's not really any hard rock at the bottom to smash things apart violently.