3 ms·

Here is the data directly from the arizona department of health: https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology

by blhack 6y ago

Here is the data directly from the arizona department of health: https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-cont... I'm a broken record talking about how nytimes/etc. will always pick the more sensational data to sell ads, and how it doesn't matter for them if they're wrong (and how they actually have a financial incentive to be wrong). Maybe it is all just an accident though.

ksdale 6y ago
Doesn't this also show daily case counts trending upward for the past month?
- blhack 6y ago
  Yes, but that’s because Arizona is doing more testing. If you click the “lab testing” section on that site you’ll see that the testing positive rate is also down substantially (from 11% to 5%) from our peak over a month ago. It’s one of the things that public health officials have been warning about pretty consistently: as testing increases, positive cases will go up, but that shouldn’t be looked at as a bad thing.
  - ksdale 6y ago
    Very good point.
eggsnbacon1 6y ago
dude, click on "Confirmed COVID-19 Cases by Day". If you ignore the drop every weekend and greyed bar from last few days (incomplete data) its increased every single week. Number of new cases per day is steadily increasing every week! A month ago the daily new cases were half what they are this week
- blhack 6y ago
  Because we are testing more. The testing positive rate is less than half of what it was a month ago. I said this elsewhere but this is something health officials have specifically warned against. Yes case counts are going up, but that is because testing is increasing. The metric that matters is the testing positive rate.
  - simmanian 6y ago
    More tests would reveal more carriers, yes. But at the same time, the curve would be more accurate, no? If the curve isn't going down DESPITE more tests being done, wouldn't that indicate that the problem is not getting better at all?
    - ksdale 6y ago
      The curve is more accurate going forward for sure, but it's possible to record an increase in new cases each day simply by doing more tests, even as the number of new cases per capita declines. This effect theoretically wouldn't stop until you were testing basically everyone, at which point the new cases per capita and the new cases would be the same.
  - eggsnbacon1 6y ago
    you are right, the testing page shows half the positive rate and far higher testing. I was wrong here, its likely that AZ cases are dropping

by blhack 6y ago

ksdale 6y ago

Doesn't this also show daily case counts trending upward for the past month?

blhack 6y ago
Yes, but that’s because Arizona is doing more testing. If you click the “lab testing” section on that site you’ll see that the testing positive rate is also down substantially (from 11% to 5%) from our peak over a month ago. It’s one of the things that public health officials have been warning about pretty consistently: as testing increases, positive cases will go up, but that shouldn’t be looked at as a bad thing.
- ksdale 6y ago
  Very good point.

eggsnbacon1 6y ago

dude, click on "Confirmed COVID-19 Cases by Day". If you ignore the drop every weekend and greyed bar from last few days (incomplete data) its increased every single week. Number of new cases per day is steadily increasing every week! A month ago the daily new cases were half what they are this week

blhack 6y ago
Because we are testing more. The testing positive rate is less than half of what it was a month ago. I said this elsewhere but this is something health officials have specifically warned against. Yes case counts are going up, but that is because testing is increasing. The metric that matters is the testing positive rate.
- simmanian 6y ago
  More tests would reveal more carriers, yes. But at the same time, the curve would be more accurate, no? If the curve isn't going down DESPITE more tests being done, wouldn't that indicate that the problem is not getting better at all?
  - ksdale 6y ago
    The curve is more accurate going forward for sure, but it's possible to record an increase in new cases each day simply by doing more tests, even as the number of new cases per capita declines. This effect theoretically wouldn't stop until you were testing basically everyone, at which point the new cases per capita and the new cases would be the same.
- eggsnbacon1 6y ago
  you are right, the testing page shows half the positive rate and far higher testing. I was wrong here, its likely that AZ cases are dropping