3 ms·
The 579/day estimate is the low end of the 90% confidence interval. You can use the 7-day rolling average the NYT provides to eliminate the swings from reportin
by jdminhbg 6y ago
The 579/day estimate is the low end of the 90% confidence interval. You can use the 7-day rolling average the NYT provides to eliminate the swings from reporting variance. Of course, the apocalypse will always be two weeks away.
- travisporter 6y agoRolling averages introduce a lag.
- Spellman 6y ago90% confidence means anything within that range would validate their model. And even if their model was perfect, 10% chance the real value would fall outside that range. So as long as the real number (which we will will have in 2 weeks once the rolling average and final tallies are in) then, well, they're still right.