3 ms·
That's not completely true. The panel of experts estimated about 1k/day during the week ending May 16, ranging 579/day to 2292/day. And while so far there are
by Spellman 6y ago
That's not completely true.
The panel of experts estimated about 1k/day during the week ending May 16, ranging 579/day to 2292/day.
And while so far there aren't that many cases reported today, the data isn't complete due to the lag in testing results. In fact the lag is for 14 days. So we're still in a wait and see point.
- jdminhbg 6y agoThe 579/day estimate is the low end of the 90% confidence interval. You can use the 7-day rolling average the NYT provides to eliminate the swings from reporting variance. Of course, the apocalypse will always be two weeks away.
- travisporter 6y agoRolling averages introduce a lag.
- Spellman 6y ago90% confidence means anything within that range would validate their model. And even if their model was perfect, 10% chance the real value would fall outside that range. So as long as the real number (which we will will have in 2 weeks once the rolling average and final tallies are in) then, well, they're still right.