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He's literally saying that a 49th percentile person will definitionally only be able to have a 49th percentile life under any system. Well, I suppose you could

He's literally saying that a 49th percentile person will definitionally only be able to have a 49th percentile life under any system. Well, I suppose you could perform random shuffling. 50% of people will still end up with a below average outcome, though.

sokoloff 6y ago
Indeed. See also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermediate_value_theorem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermediate_value_theorem
akhilcacharya 6y ago
Except of course he only really provided examples of “gifted” people breaking through. I’m not gifted and have the college diploma to prove it - where does he think the ceiling should be for me I wonder?
- sokoloff 6y ago
  I'm not even sure your argument here is in good faith, but I'll take one more shot at it. Holding a 4-year bachelors degree puts you in about the top 1/3rd in academic outcomes (meaning you personally are 50/50 to be in the top 1/6th). It's not for me nor anyone else to define your ceiling, but I would expect based on the limited data presented and, to the extent that academics is a predictor of outcome, that your outcome would be quite likely to be above the average. That you're engaged on news.yc is another generally positively correlated term I would think.
- esotericn 6y ago
  You're the one talking about ceilings. His point is that true social mobility would be literally hitting the random button repeatedly. It's obviously not a workable idea. Someone has to lose, even if you perform a magical full reset once per year, in any given year half of the people will be below average. The goal of course is that we make sure that everyone has a decent life even if they're not at the top. I think you've jumped on his comment and assumed that he doesn't care at all about anyone who's not in the top N% which isn't a charitable reading.
throwafellow 6y ago
What is a 49th percentile person measured by if not the fact that they have a 49th percentile life?
- esotericn 6y ago
  Precisely.

sokoloff 6y ago

Indeed. See also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermediate_value_theorem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermediate_value_theorem

akhilcacharya 6y ago

Except of course he only really provided examples of “gifted” people breaking through. I’m not gifted and have the college diploma to prove it - where does he think the ceiling should be for me I wonder?

sokoloff 6y ago
I'm not even sure your argument here is in good faith, but I'll take one more shot at it. Holding a 4-year bachelors degree puts you in about the top 1/3rd in academic outcomes (meaning you personally are 50/50 to be in the top 1/6th). It's not for me nor anyone else to define your ceiling, but I would expect based on the limited data presented and, to the extent that academics is a predictor of outcome, that your outcome would be quite likely to be above the average. That you're engaged on news.yc is another generally positively correlated term I would think.
esotericn 6y ago
You're the one talking about ceilings. His point is that true social mobility would be literally hitting the random button repeatedly. It's obviously not a workable idea. Someone has to lose, even if you perform a magical full reset once per year, in any given year half of the people will be below average. The goal of course is that we make sure that everyone has a decent life even if they're not at the top. I think you've jumped on his comment and assumed that he doesn't care at all about anyone who's not in the top N% which isn't a charitable reading.

throwafellow 6y ago

What is a 49th percentile person measured by if not the fact that they have a 49th percentile life?

esotericn 6y ago
Precisely.