7 ms·

Covid and Cascading Collapses

116 points by duck 6y ago

olivermarks 6y ago
Re television advertising: '... As an ad agency head put it to me a couple of years ago: ‘subscriptions are down and viewing is down, but budgets are flat, so CPMs are up’ I suspect the demographic of people who still watch broadcast TV is aging out fast. TV was a 'sit back and watch at 9pm' experience for those generations, and aside from live events such as sports TV watching seems to be very short attention span if watched at all in the pervasive online video and streaming world. I therefore think TV advertising - and broadcast TV - is going to fall off a cliff soon.
- jgalt212 6y ago
  a 15 second unskippable ad spot on 55" screen vs 700 X 400 pixels (or whatever youtube is) is not a fair fight.
- jeffbee 6y ago
  There have still been recent popular TV series that release weekly, rather than all-at-once binges. Pretty much everything on HBO and FX, for starters. I don't think watching TV on a schedule has passed out of living memory. I personally remember very fondly the collective experience of watching things like The X-Files and Battlestar Galactica at the same moment as the rest of the country.
  - downerending 6y ago
    It hasn't passed out of memory, but it may have passed what people are willing to put up with. I'm old, and the only ads I don't regularly block are on cable TV in hotels, which I (used to) visit a few days a year. Even then, more than an hour becomes intolerable. One of the great boons of the 21st century will be the elimination of advertising.
    - ses1984 6y ago
      It's not going away, it's just changing.
      - olivermarks 6y ago
        Targeted advertising from FB & Google have completely changed advertising industry client media planning and buying. Broadcast TV will survive for above the line brand reinforcement for a few more years but if prospective customer viewers dwindle (beer consumers watching live sports via online streams instead of broadcast TV for example, this has already happened with pay per view) I don't see there is much else left for broadcast TV, especially as 'news' from these big media companies has never had such a poor reputation. The other reality is that a 4k screen is no longer a 'TV', it is the viewing device for any number of inputs
    - dredmorbius 6y ago
      I finally burnt out completely on all television -- the programming, scheduling, content, advertising -- a few years back whilst travelling. Watched a film one night, flipped on the set and lost most of an hour simply looking for something to watch. Gave up, and didn't bother turning on the set for the rest of the trip. Read The Martian instead. And it's not even a commercial vs. noncommercial thing, I can't stand any of it.
- bob33212 6y ago
  My grandparents are in their 80s and they watch cable 5-7 hours a day. I cannot imagine that they would cancel it, even if it cost 400/month. At the same time I don't know anyone under 50 that watches a lot of cable other than sports fans.
phkahler 6y ago
I think one reason retail and a lot of other businesses in the real world will be killed by Covid is low interest rates. These have fueled several decades of rising real estate prices and rents. Cue a pandemic where they have to close for a while but still have to service debt or rent and they're done. They've been cutting rates to stimulate the economy, but that's not sustainable and has led to fragility. We need rates in the 5 to 7 percent range IMHO to prevent this type of thing. In that range, banks may also make loans they can hang on to rather than securities, and people may actually save a bit and have that buffer.
- User23 6y ago
  The natural rate of interest is zero[1]. Anything else causes economic distortion and misallocation. [1] http://www.moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2009/07/natural-rate-is-zero.PDF http://www.moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2009/07/nat...
  - ceejayoz 6y ago
    The author of that also thinks the natural speed limit is 30 miles per hour, so take the assertion with a grain of salt. http://moslereconomics.com/2008/05/22/energy-crisis-solution/ http://moslereconomics.com/2008/05/22/energy-crisis-solution... (The claim about interest rates is a bit more complicated than "set it at zero", too. The full claim from the linked article is "the natural, nominal, risk free rate of interest is zero". Most uses of interest in our economy aren't risk free.)
    - mrfusion 6y ago
      I thought the optimum speed was 45 or 50?
      - whatshisface 6y ago
        The optimum speed can't be higher than 6mph, any faster and I'd ask you to leave my living room.
      - 6y ago
jayrot 6y ago
Just wanted to say that I found this fascinating. Don't know if Mr. Evans was already a household name, but I just discovered his writing right now (a win for HN) and got lost reading previous essays. Just wanted to say, thanks.
- renewiltord 6y ago
  He was an Andreessen-Horowitz Partner so pretty well-known in startup circles.
- macintux 6y ago
  Here are some other analysts you may like if you’re not already familiar with them. http://www.asymco.com/ http://www.asymco.com/ https://stratechery.com/ https://stratechery.com/ https://www.aboveavalon.com/ https://www.aboveavalon.com/ I haven’t been actively following any of them for a few years now, but collectively they plus Ben Evans really impress me.
  - PakG1 6y ago
    I'd also add to this list the following for some great writing and analysis now and then (not consistently, but good enough to make the list). https://www.epsilontheory.com/ https://www.epsilontheory.com/ https://www.ribbonfarm.com/ https://www.ribbonfarm.com/ https://slatestarcodex.com/ https://slatestarcodex.com/
obiefernandez 6y ago
As far as I can tell, one of the coronavirus sleeper success stories has been https://outshool.com https://outshool.com for homeschooling (and unschooling) kids. We've been using it for my 12-year old and we see both offerings and usage exploding. There's really nothing else like it on the market that we know of...
- mrfusion 6y ago
  I can’t get it to load. What do you like about it?
  - vipshek 6y ago
    Seems like a typo: https://outschool.com/ https://outschool.com/
  - r00fus 6y ago
    Probably a typo - it's https://outschool.com https://outschool.com - and it's not clear why this is better than any other mooc.
    - fastball 6y ago
      Most MOOCs I've encountered are targeted at a higher age-range than 3-18.
      - r00fus 6y ago
        khanacademy isn't. My 7 year olds have done a lot of the basic classes in the past year or two.
        fastball 6y ago
        Fair point. This looks more structured than content I've seen from KA, but maybe I haven't plumbed the depths of it. Either way, always good to have more alternatives, no?
  - deleted 6y ago
scep12 6y ago
As usual, great stuff from Benedict. One of the better twitter follows I've picked up in the past few years. > The ad market reset in 2008, and the visible part is the money leaving print, but the most interesting part may be the money that’s not captured in ‘advertising’ at all. My thinking exactly when I look at this chart. The definition of "advertising" and the criteria for inclusion in each of the 4 buckets would be interesting. I can certainly think of other ways to capture consumers' attention than spend money on print, digital, tv, or radio.
ken 6y ago
I'd be curious to see "junk mail" in these charts as a category of print advertising. In my experience, that's always been by far the biggest category. You can come to some mistaken conclusions when you ignore the elephant in the room.

116 points by duck 6y ago

Re television advertising: '... As an ad agency head put it to me a couple of years ago: ‘subscriptions are down and viewing is down, but budgets are flat, so CPMs are up’ I suspect the demographic of people who still watch broadcast TV is aging out fast. TV was a 'sit back and watch at 9pm' experience for those generations, and aside from live events such as sports TV watching seems to be very short attention span if watched at all in the pervasive online video and streaming world. I therefore think TV advertising - and broadcast TV - is going to fall off a cliff soon.

jgalt212 6y ago
a 15 second unskippable ad spot on 55" screen vs 700 X 400 pixels (or whatever youtube is) is not a fair fight.
jeffbee 6y ago
There have still been recent popular TV series that release weekly, rather than all-at-once binges. Pretty much everything on HBO and FX, for starters. I don't think watching TV on a schedule has passed out of living memory. I personally remember very fondly the collective experience of watching things like The X-Files and Battlestar Galactica at the same moment as the rest of the country.
- downerending 6y ago
  It hasn't passed out of memory, but it may have passed what people are willing to put up with. I'm old, and the only ads I don't regularly block are on cable TV in hotels, which I (used to) visit a few days a year. Even then, more than an hour becomes intolerable. One of the great boons of the 21st century will be the elimination of advertising.
  - ses1984 6y ago
    It's not going away, it's just changing.
    - olivermarks 6y ago
      Targeted advertising from FB & Google have completely changed advertising industry client media planning and buying. Broadcast TV will survive for above the line brand reinforcement for a few more years but if prospective customer viewers dwindle (beer consumers watching live sports via online streams instead of broadcast TV for example, this has already happened with pay per view) I don't see there is much else left for broadcast TV, especially as 'news' from these big media companies has never had such a poor reputation. The other reality is that a 4k screen is no longer a 'TV', it is the viewing device for any number of inputs
  - dredmorbius 6y ago
    I finally burnt out completely on all television -- the programming, scheduling, content, advertising -- a few years back whilst travelling. Watched a film one night, flipped on the set and lost most of an hour simply looking for something to watch. Gave up, and didn't bother turning on the set for the rest of the trip. Read The Martian instead. And it's not even a commercial vs. noncommercial thing, I can't stand any of it.
bob33212 6y ago
My grandparents are in their 80s and they watch cable 5-7 hours a day. I cannot imagine that they would cancel it, even if it cost 400/month. At the same time I don't know anyone under 50 that watches a lot of cable other than sports fans.

phkahler 6y ago

I think one reason retail and a lot of other businesses in the real world will be killed by Covid is low interest rates. These have fueled several decades of rising real estate prices and rents. Cue a pandemic where they have to close for a while but still have to service debt or rent and they're done. They've been cutting rates to stimulate the economy, but that's not sustainable and has led to fragility. We need rates in the 5 to 7 percent range IMHO to prevent this type of thing. In that range, banks may also make loans they can hang on to rather than securities, and people may actually save a bit and have that buffer.

User23 6y ago
The natural rate of interest is zero[1]. Anything else causes economic distortion and misallocation. [1] http://www.moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2009/07/natural-rate-is-zero.PDF http://www.moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2009/07/nat...
- ceejayoz 6y ago
  The author of that also thinks the natural speed limit is 30 miles per hour, so take the assertion with a grain of salt. http://moslereconomics.com/2008/05/22/energy-crisis-solution/ http://moslereconomics.com/2008/05/22/energy-crisis-solution... (The claim about interest rates is a bit more complicated than "set it at zero", too. The full claim from the linked article is "the natural, nominal, risk free rate of interest is zero". Most uses of interest in our economy aren't risk free.)
  - mrfusion 6y ago
    I thought the optimum speed was 45 or 50?
    - whatshisface 6y ago
      The optimum speed can't be higher than 6mph, any faster and I'd ask you to leave my living room.
    - 6y ago

jayrot 6y ago

Just wanted to say that I found this fascinating. Don't know if Mr. Evans was already a household name, but I just discovered his writing right now (a win for HN) and got lost reading previous essays. Just wanted to say, thanks.

renewiltord 6y ago
He was an Andreessen-Horowitz Partner so pretty well-known in startup circles.
macintux 6y ago
Here are some other analysts you may like if you’re not already familiar with them. http://www.asymco.com/ http://www.asymco.com/ https://stratechery.com/ https://stratechery.com/ https://www.aboveavalon.com/ https://www.aboveavalon.com/ I haven’t been actively following any of them for a few years now, but collectively they plus Ben Evans really impress me.
- PakG1 6y ago
  I'd also add to this list the following for some great writing and analysis now and then (not consistently, but good enough to make the list). https://www.epsilontheory.com/ https://www.epsilontheory.com/ https://www.ribbonfarm.com/ https://www.ribbonfarm.com/ https://slatestarcodex.com/ https://slatestarcodex.com/

obiefernandez 6y ago

As far as I can tell, one of the coronavirus sleeper success stories has been https://outshool.com https://outshool.com for homeschooling (and unschooling) kids. We've been using it for my 12-year old and we see both offerings and usage exploding. There's really nothing else like it on the market that we know of...

mrfusion 6y ago
I can’t get it to load. What do you like about it?
- vipshek 6y ago
  Seems like a typo: https://outschool.com/ https://outschool.com/
- r00fus 6y ago
  Probably a typo - it's https://outschool.com https://outschool.com - and it's not clear why this is better than any other mooc.
  - fastball 6y ago
    Most MOOCs I've encountered are targeted at a higher age-range than 3-18.
    - r00fus 6y ago
      khanacademy isn't. My 7 year olds have done a lot of the basic classes in the past year or two.
      - fastball 6y ago
        Fair point. This looks more structured than content I've seen from KA, but maybe I haven't plumbed the depths of it. Either way, always good to have more alternatives, no?
- deleted 6y ago

scep12 6y ago

As usual, great stuff from Benedict. One of the better twitter follows I've picked up in the past few years. > The ad market reset in 2008, and the visible part is the money leaving print, but the most interesting part may be the money that’s not captured in ‘advertising’ at all. My thinking exactly when I look at this chart. The definition of "advertising" and the criteria for inclusion in each of the 4 buckets would be interesting. I can certainly think of other ways to capture consumers' attention than spend money on print, digital, tv, or radio.

ken 6y ago

I'd be curious to see "junk mail" in these charts as a category of print advertising. In my experience, that's always been by far the biggest category. You can come to some mistaken conclusions when you ignore the elephant in the room.