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Also in the VC and IPO world, there are companies with infinite PE, like Pinterest. I am curious how much of the total stock market cap these account for, becau

by cft 6y ago

Also in the VC and IPO world, there are companies with infinite PE, like Pinterest. I am curious how much of the total stock market cap these account for, because to be in S&P 500 you need to have positive earnings for 4 quarters. These companies may have an infinite PE for a decade (lifetime of a VC fund), then onloaded onto public and continue to have 0 EPS till the founders and VCs cash out. The "modest" PEs of S&P 500 of 25 are an indication of increasing centralization, where a diminishing number of companies attract an increased share of the public investment (not mentioning that even this modest PE of 20-25 is unachievable for a non-VC tech company in the event of sale)

harryh 6y ago
not mentioning that even this modest PE of 20-25 is unachievable for a non-VC tech company in the event of sale I literally mentioned Panera Bread upthread which was taken private at these multiples.
- cft 6y ago
  Not sure what you are talking about: in 1993 Panera's predecessor was bought by Au Bon Pan, a public company, and it has since remained in that orbit https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panera_Bread https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panera_Bread I would not compare the later acquisitions or Panera to that of a bootstrapped non-VC businesses. I am thinking of LiveJournal, HotOrNot, Airliners.net etc - I am personally familiar with those multiples, and they are not 20 PE. This Main St economy has as much in common with current public Wall St economy as Cessna 172 and the F-22. They both fly, but the rules are different..
  - harryh 6y ago
    This Main St economy has as much in common with current public Wall St economy Well obviously. There is a fundamental different in the economics of a single location coffee shop and a multinational company like Starbucks. The difference in these economics provides more than enough justification for one being worth a small multiple on earnings and the other a large multiple.

by cft 6y ago

harryh 6y ago

not mentioning that even this modest PE of 20-25 is unachievable for a non-VC tech company in the event of sale I literally mentioned Panera Bread upthread which was taken private at these multiples.

cft 6y ago
Not sure what you are talking about: in 1993 Panera's predecessor was bought by Au Bon Pan, a public company, and it has since remained in that orbit https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panera_Bread https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panera_Bread I would not compare the later acquisitions or Panera to that of a bootstrapped non-VC businesses. I am thinking of LiveJournal, HotOrNot, Airliners.net etc - I am personally familiar with those multiples, and they are not 20 PE. This Main St economy has as much in common with current public Wall St economy as Cessna 172 and the F-22. They both fly, but the rules are different..
- harryh 6y ago
  This Main St economy has as much in common with current public Wall St economy Well obviously. There is a fundamental different in the economics of a single location coffee shop and a multinational company like Starbucks. The difference in these economics provides more than enough justification for one being worth a small multiple on earnings and the other a large multiple.