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And what's going to happen when there is a vaccine and it's only 50% effective or whatever it's likely to be? Will they move the goalposts again? The economic

And what's going to happen when there is a vaccine and it's only 50% effective or whatever it's likely to be? Will they move the goalposts again? The economic toll of these lockdowns is going to have real effects on economic well-being (and health outcomes!) worldwide. I'll bet the cost just in human life will end up being greater from the lockdowns than from the virus.

fzeroracer 6y ago
You only need a certain level of vaccine effectiveness in order to reach herd immunity and reduce the spread of the virus. Even a 50% effective vaccine might also reduce the overall danger of the coronavirus if you do end up catching it as well. Frankly speaking, the idea that opening up will somehow fix everything isn't true. People are still going to be afraid to go to public places, and we have multiple examples of cities or areas that decided to open up too early getting slammed by a second wave of infections (See: Hokkaido, Texas). So yes, in this case it's a 'moving goalposts' situation because our knowledge and way of dealing with the coronavirus evolves over time. That's the entire point of slowly opening up with a viable test infrastructure. If you don't adjust as the situation evolves, then you get hit with a second wave making the lockdown pointless and prolonging the economic effects. Especially if people start suing local businesses when they get sick for not following the guidelines.
- gotoeleven 6y ago
  I get your point, but to me hospital underutilization implies that whatever restrictions there are, they can be eased more. Ease the lockdown restrictions in a reasonable way and watch for runaway growth in cases.
- Trasmatta 6y ago
  > and we have multiple examples of cities or areas that decided to open up too early getting slammed by a second wave of infections (See: Hokkaido, Texas) Where are you seeing that Texas is getting "slammed by a second wave"? I'm looking at Worldometers, and their daily new cases looks relatively flat. Apparently there was a big jump yesterday, but the state is claiming that correlates with a much higher rate of testing. (This is part of why we should look at the 7 day average, not just the day by day numbers.) If their rate does happen to be increasing, what makes that a second wave, vs them just not hitting the peak of their first wave yet?
  - fzeroracer 6y ago
    The state has been lying and politicizing the coronavirus problem since the beginning and in general they've been inflating the # of tests done in order to justify reopening the state. A great example of this politicking is that they've been fighting tooth and nail to prevent cities and counties from implementing their own coronavirus measures. As for the second wave, the fact that we've hit a large jump in cases is specifically what I'm talking about. It does not bode well for the next few weeks, especially because there has been little to no effort from the state to actually implement measures to ensure that we keep the curve flat. Local health officials have also been raising the alarm on both our lack of testing infrastructure and the idea that a second wave is already occurring.
    - chasd00 6y ago
      you're going to have to back that up with at least something. https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronavirus-cases-map/ https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronaviru...
      - Trasmatta 6y ago
        Yeah, I've seen so many "in two more weeks things are going to be much worse" predictions that haven't come true in the past 6 weeks or so that I've mostly started ignoring them (unless they're backed by some level of evidence).
    - catalogia 6y ago
      > The state has been lying and politicizing [...] They're not hiding bodies, so the excess fatality rate would reveal any lies they're telling.
      - matthewdgreen 6y ago
        Deaths from COVID-19 can take weeks from the initial infection. I'm not disputing or supporting anything else in this thread, but "there aren't a lot of extra deaths" doesn't really offer much data either way. Maybe in a few weeks.
- SonOfKyuss 6y ago
  > we have multiple examples of cities or areas that decided to open up too early getting slammed by a second wave of infections (See: Hokkaido, Texas). I haven’t seen any evidence showing Texas getting slammed by a second wave. All data sources I have seen, including the linked article, show a stable rate or relatively small uptick.
- chasd00 6y ago
  where is Hokkaido, Texas ?

fzeroracer 6y ago

You only need a certain level of vaccine effectiveness in order to reach herd immunity and reduce the spread of the virus. Even a 50% effective vaccine might also reduce the overall danger of the coronavirus if you do end up catching it as well. Frankly speaking, the idea that opening up will somehow fix everything isn't true. People are still going to be afraid to go to public places, and we have multiple examples of cities or areas that decided to open up too early getting slammed by a second wave of infections (See: Hokkaido, Texas). So yes, in this case it's a 'moving goalposts' situation because our knowledge and way of dealing with the coronavirus evolves over time. That's the entire point of slowly opening up with a viable test infrastructure. If you don't adjust as the situation evolves, then you get hit with a second wave making the lockdown pointless and prolonging the economic effects. Especially if people start suing local businesses when they get sick for not following the guidelines.

gotoeleven 6y ago
I get your point, but to me hospital underutilization implies that whatever restrictions there are, they can be eased more. Ease the lockdown restrictions in a reasonable way and watch for runaway growth in cases.
Trasmatta 6y ago
> and we have multiple examples of cities or areas that decided to open up too early getting slammed by a second wave of infections (See: Hokkaido, Texas) Where are you seeing that Texas is getting "slammed by a second wave"? I'm looking at Worldometers, and their daily new cases looks relatively flat. Apparently there was a big jump yesterday, but the state is claiming that correlates with a much higher rate of testing. (This is part of why we should look at the 7 day average, not just the day by day numbers.) If their rate does happen to be increasing, what makes that a second wave, vs them just not hitting the peak of their first wave yet?
- fzeroracer 6y ago
  The state has been lying and politicizing the coronavirus problem since the beginning and in general they've been inflating the # of tests done in order to justify reopening the state. A great example of this politicking is that they've been fighting tooth and nail to prevent cities and counties from implementing their own coronavirus measures. As for the second wave, the fact that we've hit a large jump in cases is specifically what I'm talking about. It does not bode well for the next few weeks, especially because there has been little to no effort from the state to actually implement measures to ensure that we keep the curve flat. Local health officials have also been raising the alarm on both our lack of testing infrastructure and the idea that a second wave is already occurring.
  - chasd00 6y ago
    you're going to have to back that up with at least something. https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronavirus-cases-map/ https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronaviru...
    - Trasmatta 6y ago
      Yeah, I've seen so many "in two more weeks things are going to be much worse" predictions that haven't come true in the past 6 weeks or so that I've mostly started ignoring them (unless they're backed by some level of evidence).
  - catalogia 6y ago
    > The state has been lying and politicizing [...] They're not hiding bodies, so the excess fatality rate would reveal any lies they're telling.
    - matthewdgreen 6y ago
      Deaths from COVID-19 can take weeks from the initial infection. I'm not disputing or supporting anything else in this thread, but "there aren't a lot of extra deaths" doesn't really offer much data either way. Maybe in a few weeks.
SonOfKyuss 6y ago
> we have multiple examples of cities or areas that decided to open up too early getting slammed by a second wave of infections (See: Hokkaido, Texas). I haven’t seen any evidence showing Texas getting slammed by a second wave. All data sources I have seen, including the linked article, show a stable rate or relatively small uptick.
chasd00 6y ago
where is Hokkaido, Texas ?