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This article is not very substantive, so: what's actually wrong with the model (in terms of predictions), and what actions should the UK government have taken i
by rrss 6y ago
This article is not very substantive, so: what's actually wrong with the model (in terms of predictions), and what actions should the UK government have taken instead?
For the U.S., the Imperial College team predicted 2.6M deaths if nobody did anything, 474k deaths if full suppression measures were put in place at 1.6 deaths / 100k population / week, and 84k deaths in the U.S. if full suppression measures were put in place at 0.2 deaths / 100k population / week. (from https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-12-global-impact-covid-19/ https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-ana...). A range of 84k to 474k deaths seems pretty reasonable given the U.S. is at something like 90k deaths today.
- blastonico 6y agoA range of 84k to 474k seems reasonable? Man, I should have chosen another career area.
- rrss 6y agoYeah, reasonable, as in: the united states put full suppression measures in place piecemeal sometime between 0.2 and 1.6 deaths / 100k / week (depending on jurisdiction), and the actual number of deaths is trending to end up between the point estimate for putting measures in place at 0.2 deaths / 100k / week and the point estimate for putting measures in place at 1.6 deaths / 100k / week.