5 ms·

Look at the population and population distributions of GB, NZ, and AUS. It becomes pretty clear that the uk stands apart from the other two in these respects,

Look at the population and population distributions of GB, NZ, and AUS. It becomes pretty clear that the uk stands apart from the other two in these respects, and it is common sense that this makes it more susceptible. Regardless of how badly we're handling it, our risk was vastly different to the others.

2019-nCoV 6y ago
Japan invalidates this narrative.
- Normal_gaussian 6y ago
  No it doesn't. Its a very different comparison. NZ and AUS are very similar to GB culturally and politically. Its very notable that most countries that experienced SARS and MERS (burning it into their cultural and political will) are dealing with COVID very well.
  - 2019-nCoV 6y ago
    > NZ and AUS are very similar to GB culturally and politically. Maybe a century ago. Governments of neither country ever entertained the idea of herd-immunity. Elimination was always the goal. Both were early to restrict international arrivals. The UK lagged behind. Both countries were leading the world in per capita testing March through April — i.e. when it mattered. Again, the UK lagged behind. Both Australia and NZ are almost back to BAU, again, the UK will lag behind.
    - gg82 6y ago
      I will just speak for Australia... but Elimination was not the initial goal. It was just to ensure the hospitals could cope. It is true that Australia never entertained the idea of herd-immunity. I think some of the state governments later moved towards an elimination idea when it appeared possible. I think that is not likely going to be possible now, since people were beginning not to accept the lock down like they had in the past. When you have a small number of cases in the hundreds for the whole of Australia, people had already started to change their behavior even before lock down restrictions had began to be lifted.
      - nl 6y ago
        I can confirm this is accurate. No Australian government has made any kind of indication that elimination is a goal, and nor was herd immunity a goal. The goal was time to prepare the country, and to minimise the death toll. As it happens, it has been functionally eliminated in SA/NT/WA with no new cases in May and zero active cases. But the expectation is that new cases will arise as travel restrictions ease but contact tracing will be sufficient to control them.
    - SyneRyder 6y ago
      > Both were early to restrict international arrivals. The UK lagged behind. This was a big factor. When Australia started closing its borders (on Feb 2), it was being condemned by the WHO and China for doing so [1]: "WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in Geneva that despite the emergency declaration, there is "no reason for measures that unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade"." I was tracking conferences in the UK at the time (I run a website with conference listings), and one of the UK conferences kept quoting that WHO statement as a reason to insist their conference was still happening and people should fly to the UK for it... for another six weeks, right up until the UK lockdown. Meanwhile conferences in the rest of the world were cancelling themselves "out of an abundance of caution". The UK was one of the countries that took the longest for their conferences to cancel (Germany was the other). [1] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-02/coronavirus-china-slams-us-ban-as-who-warns-local-outbreaks/11921416 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-02/coronavirus-china-sla...
      - bigiain 6y ago
        Did we really "start closing our borders" that early? I know we'd restricted direct flights from China or the Wuhan area earlier, but citizens and permanent residents (and their families) could still arrive. We were still allowing international visitors in mid March - they only cancelled the F1 GP in March 12th, the day it was supposed to star, when all the international drivers/teams/fans/media-circus were already in Melbourne. https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/mar/13/formula-one-australian-grand-prix-melbourne-coronavirus https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/mar/13/formula-one-au...
        SyneRyder 6y ago
        That's fair - I meant that we'd started closing our border to China. Apparently Australia blocked tourists from China from February 1 and required other travellers from China to go into quarantine. I'm still trying to find when the UK implemented the same restrictions on China that Australia did. Apologies for a Daily Mail link, but it suggests that a week later the UK was still struggling to implement restrictions on travel from China due to EU rules [1] (but then, the Daily Mail would say that). Deutsche Welle suggests that a Europe-wide ban didn't happen until 17th March, and even then the Schengen still remained open [2]. As for the F1 GP, I'll just paraphrase our WA Premier: "They do things differently on the east coast" ;) [1] https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7968785/UK-ban-flights-China-block-foreign-citizens-entering.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7968785/UK-ban-fl... [2] https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-germany-implements-non-eu-travel-ban/a-52802039 https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-germany-implements-non-eu-...
    - bigiain 6y ago
      Also "speaking for Australia", or at least my small inner-west Sydney microcosm of it - which is all my own anecdata really covers... We are quite a way from being "almost back to BAU". This weekend we allowed cafes, restaurants, and food serving areas of bars to reopen, but only to 10 people at a time (so many have not reopened, since only 10 customers is completely unviable financially for many places). Bars (for drinking) and entertainment venues are still closed. The cafe nearest me is playing with fire right now - they have 8 outdoor tables, all more than 2m apart, but had al of them filled with 2, 3, or 4 people around each - easily 20-25 people seated while I was there. And there were still people crowding around the door clearly not "social distancing" waiting for a table to open up, and ignoring the cafe owner's request to spread themselves out to comply with the health advice... The plan is to get back to "everything open as normal" by the end of July, but it'll only take a serious "second wave" for that plan to be found unworkabe, I suspect...
    - justinclift 6y ago
      > Both Australia and NZ are almost back to BAU, again, the UK will lag behind. Not even slightly. We (Australia) only just (this week) had some states start to loosen up the initial list of restrictions, so some businesses and social activities can restart in limited fashion. But we're still on "stage 3" restrictions - with stage 4 being the most restricted. In my own state (Victoria), we're going slower as we've recently had some new infection clusters show up, which we don't want to get out of hand.
nl 6y ago
The population density of the Australian East Coast between Melbourne and Brisbane is comparable to the UK. For example, the greater Sydney area has 400 people/km^2 while the UK is 259/km^2.
- ascorbic 6y ago
  You're right that comparing population centres is more helpful, but London has a total population around half that of the whole of Australia with density over 4500/km^2. Even if you expand to the whole of south east England, there's a population density of 450/km^2
  - 2019-nCoV 6y ago
    While counterintuitive, Australia is more urbanised than the UK. 60% of Australians live in 1M+ cities, while only 27% of Brits do. That's 15M dwelling in big Australians cities. Only 17.65M in the UK. https://ourworldindata.org/urbanization https://ourworldindata.org/urbanization
    - bigiain 6y ago
      We have a _lot_ of empty space here. Our biggest cattle station (think "cow farm" for non-Aussies) is almost 10% of the land area of the UK. We have ~20 cattle stations larger than 10,000 square kilometers. You'd only need to aggregate the top 15-17 biggest farms to get the same amount of land area as the entire United Kingdom. (Admittedly, far far less productive land, most of which probably qualifies as desert, but still...) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_stations_in_Australia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_stations_i...
      - nl 6y ago
        I think everyone understands that. The point here is the opposite: that the east coast is reasonably dense and useful for comparison purposes. Central Australia has pretty much the density of the North Atlantic...
ascorbic 6y ago
It's not just the fact there's 66 million people in a country smaller than Michigan either. The UK is a major transport hub. Heathrow is one of the busiest international airports in the world, both for visitors to the UK and as an international hub. London is one of the world's top tourist destinations. It's also very close to continental Europe, with tens of millions of people travelling between them by train and boat every year. The government's response was badly botched, but a fairer comparison is New York not New Zealand.
ben_w 6y ago
> it is common sense that this makes it more susceptible If you’re saying that the British attitude of “use common sense” is what made it more susceptible, then I agree.
jussij 6y ago
> Look at the population and population distributions of GB, NZ, and AUS. The disparity in population distribution is no where the near the massive disparity seen in COVID 19 outcomes. Australia has a population of 25 million which makes in more than one third the size of the UK with its population of 66 million. Also 10 million of that 25 million live in just the two major cities of Sydney and Melbourne which I'm sure are just as densely populated as cities like London, Liverpool etc. To date UK COVID deaths total 34466 or 508 deaths per million. By comparison Australia has 98 or 4 deaths per million. There is more than population distribution at play here.

2019-nCoV 6y ago

Japan invalidates this narrative.

Normal_gaussian 6y ago
No it doesn't. Its a very different comparison. NZ and AUS are very similar to GB culturally and politically. Its very notable that most countries that experienced SARS and MERS (burning it into their cultural and political will) are dealing with COVID very well.
- 2019-nCoV 6y ago
  > NZ and AUS are very similar to GB culturally and politically. Maybe a century ago. Governments of neither country ever entertained the idea of herd-immunity. Elimination was always the goal. Both were early to restrict international arrivals. The UK lagged behind. Both countries were leading the world in per capita testing March through April — i.e. when it mattered. Again, the UK lagged behind. Both Australia and NZ are almost back to BAU, again, the UK will lag behind.
  - gg82 6y ago
    I will just speak for Australia... but Elimination was not the initial goal. It was just to ensure the hospitals could cope. It is true that Australia never entertained the idea of herd-immunity. I think some of the state governments later moved towards an elimination idea when it appeared possible. I think that is not likely going to be possible now, since people were beginning not to accept the lock down like they had in the past. When you have a small number of cases in the hundreds for the whole of Australia, people had already started to change their behavior even before lock down restrictions had began to be lifted.
    - nl 6y ago
      I can confirm this is accurate. No Australian government has made any kind of indication that elimination is a goal, and nor was herd immunity a goal. The goal was time to prepare the country, and to minimise the death toll. As it happens, it has been functionally eliminated in SA/NT/WA with no new cases in May and zero active cases. But the expectation is that new cases will arise as travel restrictions ease but contact tracing will be sufficient to control them.
  - SyneRyder 6y ago
    > Both were early to restrict international arrivals. The UK lagged behind. This was a big factor. When Australia started closing its borders (on Feb 2), it was being condemned by the WHO and China for doing so [1]: "WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in Geneva that despite the emergency declaration, there is "no reason for measures that unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade"." I was tracking conferences in the UK at the time (I run a website with conference listings), and one of the UK conferences kept quoting that WHO statement as a reason to insist their conference was still happening and people should fly to the UK for it... for another six weeks, right up until the UK lockdown. Meanwhile conferences in the rest of the world were cancelling themselves "out of an abundance of caution". The UK was one of the countries that took the longest for their conferences to cancel (Germany was the other). [1] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-02/coronavirus-china-slams-us-ban-as-who-warns-local-outbreaks/11921416 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-02/coronavirus-china-sla...
    - bigiain 6y ago
      Did we really "start closing our borders" that early? I know we'd restricted direct flights from China or the Wuhan area earlier, but citizens and permanent residents (and their families) could still arrive. We were still allowing international visitors in mid March - they only cancelled the F1 GP in March 12th, the day it was supposed to star, when all the international drivers/teams/fans/media-circus were already in Melbourne. https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/mar/13/formula-one-australian-grand-prix-melbourne-coronavirus https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/mar/13/formula-one-au...
      - SyneRyder 6y ago
        That's fair - I meant that we'd started closing our border to China. Apparently Australia blocked tourists from China from February 1 and required other travellers from China to go into quarantine. I'm still trying to find when the UK implemented the same restrictions on China that Australia did. Apologies for a Daily Mail link, but it suggests that a week later the UK was still struggling to implement restrictions on travel from China due to EU rules [1] (but then, the Daily Mail would say that). Deutsche Welle suggests that a Europe-wide ban didn't happen until 17th March, and even then the Schengen still remained open [2]. As for the F1 GP, I'll just paraphrase our WA Premier: "They do things differently on the east coast" ;) [1] https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7968785/UK-ban-flights-China-block-foreign-citizens-entering.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7968785/UK-ban-fl... [2] https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-germany-implements-non-eu-travel-ban/a-52802039 https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-germany-implements-non-eu-...
  - bigiain 6y ago
    Also "speaking for Australia", or at least my small inner-west Sydney microcosm of it - which is all my own anecdata really covers... We are quite a way from being "almost back to BAU". This weekend we allowed cafes, restaurants, and food serving areas of bars to reopen, but only to 10 people at a time (so many have not reopened, since only 10 customers is completely unviable financially for many places). Bars (for drinking) and entertainment venues are still closed. The cafe nearest me is playing with fire right now - they have 8 outdoor tables, all more than 2m apart, but had al of them filled with 2, 3, or 4 people around each - easily 20-25 people seated while I was there. And there were still people crowding around the door clearly not "social distancing" waiting for a table to open up, and ignoring the cafe owner's request to spread themselves out to comply with the health advice... The plan is to get back to "everything open as normal" by the end of July, but it'll only take a serious "second wave" for that plan to be found unworkabe, I suspect...
  - justinclift 6y ago
    > Both Australia and NZ are almost back to BAU, again, the UK will lag behind. Not even slightly. We (Australia) only just (this week) had some states start to loosen up the initial list of restrictions, so some businesses and social activities can restart in limited fashion. But we're still on "stage 3" restrictions - with stage 4 being the most restricted. In my own state (Victoria), we're going slower as we've recently had some new infection clusters show up, which we don't want to get out of hand.

nl 6y ago

The population density of the Australian East Coast between Melbourne and Brisbane is comparable to the UK. For example, the greater Sydney area has 400 people/km^2 while the UK is 259/km^2.

ascorbic 6y ago
You're right that comparing population centres is more helpful, but London has a total population around half that of the whole of Australia with density over 4500/km^2. Even if you expand to the whole of south east England, there's a population density of 450/km^2
- 2019-nCoV 6y ago
  While counterintuitive, Australia is more urbanised than the UK. 60% of Australians live in 1M+ cities, while only 27% of Brits do. That's 15M dwelling in big Australians cities. Only 17.65M in the UK. https://ourworldindata.org/urbanization https://ourworldindata.org/urbanization
  - bigiain 6y ago
    We have a _lot_ of empty space here. Our biggest cattle station (think "cow farm" for non-Aussies) is almost 10% of the land area of the UK. We have ~20 cattle stations larger than 10,000 square kilometers. You'd only need to aggregate the top 15-17 biggest farms to get the same amount of land area as the entire United Kingdom. (Admittedly, far far less productive land, most of which probably qualifies as desert, but still...) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_stations_in_Australia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_stations_i...
    - nl 6y ago
      I think everyone understands that. The point here is the opposite: that the east coast is reasonably dense and useful for comparison purposes. Central Australia has pretty much the density of the North Atlantic...

ascorbic 6y ago

It's not just the fact there's 66 million people in a country smaller than Michigan either. The UK is a major transport hub. Heathrow is one of the busiest international airports in the world, both for visitors to the UK and as an international hub. London is one of the world's top tourist destinations. It's also very close to continental Europe, with tens of millions of people travelling between them by train and boat every year. The government's response was badly botched, but a fairer comparison is New York not New Zealand.

ben_w 6y ago

> it is common sense that this makes it more susceptible If you’re saying that the British attitude of “use common sense” is what made it more susceptible, then I agree.

jussij 6y ago

> Look at the population and population distributions of GB, NZ, and AUS. The disparity in population distribution is no where the near the massive disparity seen in COVID 19 outcomes. Australia has a population of 25 million which makes in more than one third the size of the UK with its population of 66 million. Also 10 million of that 25 million live in just the two major cities of Sydney and Melbourne which I'm sure are just as densely populated as cities like London, Liverpool etc. To date UK COVID deaths total 34466 or 508 deaths per million. By comparison Australia has 98 or 4 deaths per million. There is more than population distribution at play here.