4 ms·

Not giving official financial advice here because I would need to understand your individual circumstances, but if you have the view that equities on the whole

Not giving official financial advice here because I would need to understand your individual circumstances, but if you have the view that equities on the whole are going to fall, you can buy bonds, uncorrelated assets (think gold, but calculate the correlation yourself), low beta stocks, delta-neutral option strategies There’s really a lot you can do

bobbyi_settv 6y ago
Bonds when interest rates are near zero?
- edge17 6y ago
  Corporate bonds, not treasurys
  - Klinky 6y ago
    VLGSX(Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Index) has actually had really good ytd returns. Dunno how long it will last.
- ISL 6y ago
  If you expect equities to fall, zero sounds real good.
julienchastang 6y ago
The problem is timing markets is extremely tenuous business. You may correctly time the downturn, but you may miss an opportunity when the economic picture improves. Missing just 10 good days over a span of 14 years can have an enormous impact on your returns [1]. [1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-crash-will-come-and-thats-ok-11571995801 https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-crash-will-come-and-thats-ok-...
- labster 6y ago
  Missing just 10 bad days can improve your fortunes too. But hey, if you keep putting money on the blackjack table you're bound to make some money eventually. As long as you don't need that money for anything, the stock market is harmless entertainment. But as a small-time investor, I remember that the house always wins.
  - connor4312 6y ago
    > remember that the house always wins. In a casino, it's the impetus of the establishment to make money. In the stock market, it's the impetus of the shareholders to make money. If the house always wins[1], shareholders are the house. 1. This is a tenuous metaphor for the stock market--true in the US over long periods of time, but perpetual growth is not guaranteed.
    - jjeaff 6y ago
      In the case of equities timing, imo the house is not the shareholders, it's the investment bankers, hedge funds, and other major traders.
      - deleted 6y ago
        [deleted]
      - labster 6y ago
        Right. My ability to trade as a small investor is after all of the quants and algorithms take their cut trading the noise of the market. Meanwhile I have an account I can look at a few times a day at most. And then I have most of my assets 401(k) that can trade once a day, at most, at a time chosen by the company the next day in funds chosen by the company.
ColanR 6y ago
I'm new to it myself, but I have noticed that BTC has recovered completely.

bobbyi_settv 6y ago

Bonds when interest rates are near zero?

edge17 6y ago
Corporate bonds, not treasurys
- Klinky 6y ago
  VLGSX(Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Index) has actually had really good ytd returns. Dunno how long it will last.
ISL 6y ago
If you expect equities to fall, zero sounds real good.

julienchastang 6y ago

The problem is timing markets is extremely tenuous business. You may correctly time the downturn, but you may miss an opportunity when the economic picture improves. Missing just 10 good days over a span of 14 years can have an enormous impact on your returns [1]. [1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-crash-will-come-and-thats-ok-11571995801 https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-crash-will-come-and-thats-ok-...

labster 6y ago
Missing just 10 bad days can improve your fortunes too. But hey, if you keep putting money on the blackjack table you're bound to make some money eventually. As long as you don't need that money for anything, the stock market is harmless entertainment. But as a small-time investor, I remember that the house always wins.
- connor4312 6y ago
  > remember that the house always wins. In a casino, it's the impetus of the establishment to make money. In the stock market, it's the impetus of the shareholders to make money. If the house always wins[1], shareholders are the house. 1. This is a tenuous metaphor for the stock market--true in the US over long periods of time, but perpetual growth is not guaranteed.
  - jjeaff 6y ago
    In the case of equities timing, imo the house is not the shareholders, it's the investment bankers, hedge funds, and other major traders.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
    - labster 6y ago
      Right. My ability to trade as a small investor is after all of the quants and algorithms take their cut trading the noise of the market. Meanwhile I have an account I can look at a few times a day at most. And then I have most of my assets 401(k) that can trade once a day, at most, at a time chosen by the company the next day in funds chosen by the company.

ColanR 6y ago

I'm new to it myself, but I have noticed that BTC has recovered completely.