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I'm convinced that the markets, which, let's remember, were high on the hog all throughout the obvious impending catastrophe of this virus sweeping in from the
by hanoz 6y ago
I'm convinced that the markets, which, let's remember, were high on the hog all throughout the obvious impending catastrophe of this virus sweeping in from the east at the beginning of this year, until the moment reality was shoved in their faces in the form of an outbreak in Italy, have not yet absorbed the enormity of the long tail of this pandemic and the lockdown.
- echelon 6y agoIs it a worse place to put your money than USD or housing? Where do you suggest we put our investments?
- hanoz 6y agoFair point. It is difficult to fairly price a thing in terms of a debauched currency.
- Jorge1o1 6y agoNot giving official financial advice here because I would need to understand your individual circumstances, but if you have the view that equities on the whole are going to fall, you can buy bonds, uncorrelated assets (think gold, but calculate the correlation yourself), low beta stocks, delta-neutral option strategies There’s really a lot you can do
- bobbyi_settv 6y agoBonds when interest rates are near zero?
- julienchastang 6y agoThe problem is timing markets is extremely tenuous business. You may correctly time the downturn, but you may miss an opportunity when the economic picture improves. Missing just 10 good days over a span of 14 years can have an enormous impact on your returns [1]. [1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-crash-will-come-and-thats-ok-11571995801 https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-crash-will-come-and-thats-ok-...
- labster 6y agoMissing just 10 bad days can improve your fortunes too. But hey, if you keep putting money on the blackjack table you're bound to make some money eventually. As long as you don't need that money for anything, the stock market is harmless entertainment. But as a small-time investor, I remember that the house always wins.
- connor4312 6y ago> remember that the house always wins. In a casino, it's the impetus of the establishment to make money. In the stock market, it's the impetus of the shareholders to make money. If the house always wins[1], shareholders are the house. 1. This is a tenuous metaphor for the stock market--true in the US over long periods of time, but perpetual growth is not guaranteed.
- jjeaff 6y agoIn the case of equities timing, imo the house is not the shareholders, it's the investment bankers, hedge funds, and other major traders.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- labster 6y agoRight. My ability to trade as a small investor is after all of the quants and algorithms take their cut trading the noise of the market. Meanwhile I have an account I can look at a few times a day at most. And then I have most of my assets 401(k) that can trade once a day, at most, at a time chosen by the company the next day in funds chosen by the company.
- ColanR 6y agoI'm new to it myself, but I have noticed that BTC has recovered completely.
- throwquestion24 6y agoCash? Deflation is coming?
- readme 6y agobitcoin, just make sure you sell it after the next big rally that all the money printing sparks
- phkahler 6y agoWhat percent of public stocks are owned by funds in 401K accounts? Remember, price is driven by supply and demand. So long as there are more buyers than sellers the prices are going to keep rising. People blindly put money in funds every month. fund managers have to spread it around. Or in the case of index funds spread it by fixed formula. Sure there are good/bad companies and good/bad times, but so long as people keep pushing money in things will generally go up. If CoViD had put white-collar people out of work, there wouldn't be any buyers and things would tank.
- crabasa 6y agoThis is overly simplistic and, pretty damningly given the topic, fails to account for the market drop between Feb 20 and Mar 20.
- phkahler 6y agoWhen the traditional investors (as opposed to the automatic ones) sold in volume?
- anonu 6y agoI think this is a great point. Retirement dollars come in a steady stream and but a consistent bid in the market. If that money flow stops, what are the implications for that buying impact. You could dig further and look at unemployments rise and see whether those who have lost their jobs typically save for retirement.
- qppo 6y agoIt did put white collar people out of work.
- actualanswer 6y agoThat is....one long sentence
- distances 6y agoVery tangentially, my favourite long sentence book is The Autumn of the Patriarch by Gabriel García Márquez. It was very hard to put down, not because it would've been especially gripping, but because I'd like to pause at end of a chapter, or at the very least at end of a sentence, and those sentences just went on and on for page after page.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- anonu 6y agoOr they might have and are now so distorted by Fed money. You can't underestimate the power of govt money, especially in an election year.
- siruncledrew 6y ago> ... have not yet absorbed the enormity of the long tail of this pandemic and the lockdown. I keep seeing retrospective rationalizations on Reddit saying the market "is priced in" based on a perceived mismatch between market gains and reality. I don't understand how this is true when each corner yields something unexpected.