2 ms·

Appreciate your opinion, and agree the ratio isn't 1/6, but it's not de minimus and there is no safe population. There is essential work, those jobs are wartim

Appreciate your opinion, and agree the ratio isn't 1/6, but it's not de minimus and there is no safe population. There is essential work, those jobs are wartime/highly hazardous jobs, and deserve all of the support and gear that actual war fighters get. That isn't happening. Finally, Fed liquidity is a tool with far greater power than we are utilizing. To not exercise that power, and to not equip hazard roles- is simply barbaric. Good luck and good health to you.

concordDance 6y ago
You say there is no safe population, but isn't the risk to healthy preteens less than 1 in a million?
- jonahbenton 6y ago
  No. In NYC, in the teen and pre-teen set, we have thousands of confirmed/symptomatic infections, hundreds of hospitalizations, dozens of deaths, and dozens of strange case histories. That's what's reported. I speculate based on anecdotal conversations with other parents there is much still unknown/unreported. We don't have a model for how to understand exposure and immunity dynamics for this population. My personal sense/estimate is that between 10% and 20% of the child population has been sufficiently "exposed" to now be considered "safe" but I would not bet my children's lives on that measure. I am eagerly awaiting the day I can get my kids tested for antibodies, but even if they test positive I can't consider them or us to be "safe" until we know a whole lot more. At any rate, given just the reported numbers, a conservative back of the envelope risk-of-significant-impact from "exposure" in the teen/pre-teen set is somewhere between 1 in 1,000 and 1 in 10,000.
  - concordDance 6y ago
    Your statement is contradicted by this page here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se... Which says there been three coronavirus related teen+preteen deaths with no underlying conditions (all of which were teens IIRC) in NYC and another 6 with underlying conditions. Do you have a more reliable source? Also, 1 in 1000 is close to the estimated infection fatality rate for the general population (estimated between 0.1% and 0.5% normally) and kids are supposed to be a couple of orders of magnitude less at risk than the population average. So your numbers all seem utter nonesense to me. I've never even heard of a preteen death of covid.

concordDance 6y ago

You say there is no safe population, but isn't the risk to healthy preteens less than 1 in a million?

jonahbenton 6y ago
No. In NYC, in the teen and pre-teen set, we have thousands of confirmed/symptomatic infections, hundreds of hospitalizations, dozens of deaths, and dozens of strange case histories. That's what's reported. I speculate based on anecdotal conversations with other parents there is much still unknown/unreported. We don't have a model for how to understand exposure and immunity dynamics for this population. My personal sense/estimate is that between 10% and 20% of the child population has been sufficiently "exposed" to now be considered "safe" but I would not bet my children's lives on that measure. I am eagerly awaiting the day I can get my kids tested for antibodies, but even if they test positive I can't consider them or us to be "safe" until we know a whole lot more. At any rate, given just the reported numbers, a conservative back of the envelope risk-of-significant-impact from "exposure" in the teen/pre-teen set is somewhere between 1 in 1,000 and 1 in 10,000.
- concordDance 6y ago
  Your statement is contradicted by this page here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se... Which says there been three coronavirus related teen+preteen deaths with no underlying conditions (all of which were teens IIRC) in NYC and another 6 with underlying conditions. Do you have a more reliable source? Also, 1 in 1000 is close to the estimated infection fatality rate for the general population (estimated between 0.1% and 0.5% normally) and kids are supposed to be a couple of orders of magnitude less at risk than the population average. So your numbers all seem utter nonesense to me. I've never even heard of a preteen death of covid.