6 ms·

Private companies get sold for over 5x all the time. Just to pick the obvious recent example: Giphy.

by harryh 6y ago

cft 6y ago
A top VC funded company obeys the same pricing laws as a public market one. It's part of the establishment. He is talking about bootstraped non-sanctioned S corps.
- harryh 6y ago
  Financial numbers are harder to come by for private companies but I have no reason to believe that PE ratios for companies like Bloomberg or Mars or Deloitte are hugely out of line with similar public companies. But if you mean small businesses like a restaurant or a dentist's office or whatever I would say that the comparison you are making doesn't really make much sense in the first place. Large companies have huge economies of scale and brand value compared to a mom & pop enterprise who's revenues are just as much labor income of the owners as return on capital.
  - robomartin 6y ago
    No, I am not talking about small businesses necessarily. I am talking about the reality of non-VC businesses. That doesn't mean bootstrapped either. I do realize private data is hard to come by, but this is known to people in the business world. It's very, very hard to sell a company for more than about 5x. I am talking from personal experience as well a from knowledge of friends who have sold non-VC tech businesses. One way to look at it is that in the real world the buyer has an expectation of ROI that has to align with reality. Buy the business, run it, make money, pay for your investment and make money beyond that. People paying 123 times P/E for stocks have no connection to reality whatsoever, it's pure speculation. BTW, I am not using "in the real world" as a pejorative. It simply means "non VC, non public".
    - harryh 6y ago
      It's very, very hard to sell a company for more than about 5x. Indeed this is definitely true. That doesn't, however, mean that firms with higher multiples are not connected to reality. It just means they have achieved some form of economy of scale or market dominance where there is a reasonable expectation that the ROI on the investment will be worth the risk. have no connection to reality whatsoever, it's pure speculation. Speculation isn't inherently unconnected to reality. There can be very real reasons to believe that a business currently making very little money (or even losing money) will, at some point in the future, make lots and lots of money. In these cases, it's very reasonable to see shares trade at very high PE multiples.
      - robomartin 6y ago
        No, high P/E's only exist the stock market. Nobody would pay 27 times earnings to buy Starbucks. Nobody. I mean, write one big check and you own it. No shareholders. It would literally take a century to break even, if even possible. And so, what are people paying for when they pay 27x earnings in the stock market? It isn't real value. The stock is already grotesquely overpriced. They are speculating that someone else is going to be willing to pay 28x or more. And the person who decides to pay 28x is hoping for someone to pay 29x.
        harryh 6y ago
        In 2013 Dell was taken private with one really big check for ~25B. I don't know off the top of my head what the earnings multiple was on that deal, but I know that it was done at a significant premium to the public price on the stock so I'm sure it was up in the range that you just said doesn't happen. This deal is obviously notable for its size, but companies being taken private are pretty common. Panera Bread is another recent example and a good one since its business is pretty similar to Starbucks. That deal was for about 7B. Also a pretty big check. Also at a high multiple.
        robomartin 6y ago
        Easy: Once the stock is valued at x nobody is going to sell it for x/2. We have to separate the reality of the price of a stock from the value of a company. I mean, the numbers don’t have to be very complicated: If a company makes $1MM per year, how much would you pay to buy it? $5MM? $30MM? In the first case you get your money back in 5 years (simplified). In the other case in 30 years. A lifetime. Another way to look at it: The guy who paid 5x will make $25MM in 30 years. The one who paid 30x walks away with zero profits in 30 years. When people pay 20x, 30x, 100+x for stocks all they are betting on is that someone will be willing to pay more in the future.

Private companies get sold for over 5x all the time. Just to pick the obvious recent example: Giphy.

by harryh 6y ago

Private companies get sold for over 5x all the time. Just to pick the obvious recent example: Giphy.

cft 6y ago

A top VC funded company obeys the same pricing laws as a public market one. It's part of the establishment. He is talking about bootstraped non-sanctioned S corps.

harryh 6y ago
Financial numbers are harder to come by for private companies but I have no reason to believe that PE ratios for companies like Bloomberg or Mars or Deloitte are hugely out of line with similar public companies. But if you mean small businesses like a restaurant or a dentist's office or whatever I would say that the comparison you are making doesn't really make much sense in the first place. Large companies have huge economies of scale and brand value compared to a mom & pop enterprise who's revenues are just as much labor income of the owners as return on capital.
- robomartin 6y ago
  No, I am not talking about small businesses necessarily. I am talking about the reality of non-VC businesses. That doesn't mean bootstrapped either. I do realize private data is hard to come by, but this is known to people in the business world. It's very, very hard to sell a company for more than about 5x. I am talking from personal experience as well a from knowledge of friends who have sold non-VC tech businesses. One way to look at it is that in the real world the buyer has an expectation of ROI that has to align with reality. Buy the business, run it, make money, pay for your investment and make money beyond that. People paying 123 times P/E for stocks have no connection to reality whatsoever, it's pure speculation. BTW, I am not using "in the real world" as a pejorative. It simply means "non VC, non public".
  - harryh 6y ago
    It's very, very hard to sell a company for more than about 5x. Indeed this is definitely true. That doesn't, however, mean that firms with higher multiples are not connected to reality. It just means they have achieved some form of economy of scale or market dominance where there is a reasonable expectation that the ROI on the investment will be worth the risk. have no connection to reality whatsoever, it's pure speculation. Speculation isn't inherently unconnected to reality. There can be very real reasons to believe that a business currently making very little money (or even losing money) will, at some point in the future, make lots and lots of money. In these cases, it's very reasonable to see shares trade at very high PE multiples.
    - robomartin 6y ago
      No, high P/E's only exist the stock market. Nobody would pay 27 times earnings to buy Starbucks. Nobody. I mean, write one big check and you own it. No shareholders. It would literally take a century to break even, if even possible. And so, what are people paying for when they pay 27x earnings in the stock market? It isn't real value. The stock is already grotesquely overpriced. They are speculating that someone else is going to be willing to pay 28x or more. And the person who decides to pay 28x is hoping for someone to pay 29x.
      - harryh 6y ago
        In 2013 Dell was taken private with one really big check for ~25B. I don't know off the top of my head what the earnings multiple was on that deal, but I know that it was done at a significant premium to the public price on the stock so I'm sure it was up in the range that you just said doesn't happen. This deal is obviously notable for its size, but companies being taken private are pretty common. Panera Bread is another recent example and a good one since its business is pretty similar to Starbucks. That deal was for about 7B. Also a pretty big check. Also at a high multiple.
        robomartin 6y ago
        Easy: Once the stock is valued at x nobody is going to sell it for x/2. We have to separate the reality of the price of a stock from the value of a company. I mean, the numbers don’t have to be very complicated: If a company makes $1MM per year, how much would you pay to buy it? $5MM? $30MM? In the first case you get your money back in 5 years (simplified). In the other case in 30 years. A lifetime. Another way to look at it: The guy who paid 5x will make $25MM in 30 years. The one who paid 30x walks away with zero profits in 30 years. When people pay 20x, 30x, 100+x for stocks all they are betting on is that someone will be willing to pay more in the future.