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There wont be another crash like March, probably just a slow bleed over the next 6 months. My personal plays are Put option Leaps (2022) on a few retailers whos
by ericmcer 6y ago
There wont be another crash like March, probably just a slow bleed over the next 6 months. My personal plays are Put option Leaps (2022) on a few retailers whose stocks have semi-recovered for now but are definitely destined for the graveyard in the next few years. Don't try to predict the next crash/recovery.
- save_ferris 6y ago> There won’t be another crash like March. This too sounds like a prediction to me. Keep in mind that a bunch of huge companies like Google, Amazon, Wal Mart, etc. own a ton of commercial real estate. If commercial real estate does collapse, it’s going to have impact. The tech giants seem to be sitting on massive piles of cash, but I guarantee that’s not true for everyone. We all saw how devastating the CDO monstrosities were in 2008, and it’s hard to see how this outcome will fare much better if the commercial real estate sector has been playing the same games since the last crisis.
- ericmcer 6y agoThe Fed is actively watching now. Stimulus bills can and will be pushed through in a day or two. The Fed reaction to this was also much faster and more aggressive than 2008, there’s no way they let another 30% drop happen as quickly as in March. That’s not really a prediction other than assuming that they aren’t going to completely change their position and strategy and let it collapse.