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> The stock market will always recover because people are always going to want to make money. Maybe. SPY closed at ~$145 in June 2000 SPY closed at ~$80 in O

> The stock market will always recover because people are always going to want to make money. Maybe. SPY closed at ~$145 in June 2000 SPY closed at ~$80 in October 2002 SPY closed at ~$145 in July 2007 SPY closed at ~$75 in March 2009 SPY closed at ~$145 in December 2012 Nothing but dividends for a decade or so unless you did some clever selling high and buying low. It's been mostly up since 2012, but there is no guarantee it is up from here in 2030.

zaat 6y ago
This is only true if you choose the worst case scenario. If you bought SPY in almost any random day since 93 you could have sold it with profit without having to wait too much. On the worst case you had to wait for 5 years or so, but that wasn't a surprising situation.
fastball 6y ago
That is why you don't try to time the market and just put in the same amount every month. The overall trend has been up for the past 100 years, and ignoring dips that are always temporary, this is true on smaller time scales as well.
- walshemj 6y ago
  That what I am doing just putting £1500 or so every month into my ISA and learning to live with the big up and downs on a daily basis.
Rebelgecko 6y ago
Keep in mind that those dividends would give you a ~20% gain (although probably offset by inflation)
valachio 6y ago
According to the example you gave (which isn't the fairest, since you started at June 2020, which is the peak of the Internet bubble), the stock market still did manage to recover. It took 12 years but it did recover, and now SPY is just 2x of $145.
snowwrestler 6y ago
There’s not a perfect investment out there, so the real question is what beat equities over that time span? You have to do something with your savings. “Nothing but dividends” over 10 years still beats the heck out of holding cash over that period of time, for example.
wocram 6y ago
I agree with your point, but your numbers don't accurately reflect total-return (ie. include dividends).

zaat 6y ago

This is only true if you choose the worst case scenario. If you bought SPY in almost any random day since 93 you could have sold it with profit without having to wait too much. On the worst case you had to wait for 5 years or so, but that wasn't a surprising situation.

fastball 6y ago

That is why you don't try to time the market and just put in the same amount every month. The overall trend has been up for the past 100 years, and ignoring dips that are always temporary, this is true on smaller time scales as well.

walshemj 6y ago
That what I am doing just putting £1500 or so every month into my ISA and learning to live with the big up and downs on a daily basis.

Rebelgecko 6y ago

Keep in mind that those dividends would give you a ~20% gain (although probably offset by inflation)

valachio 6y ago

According to the example you gave (which isn't the fairest, since you started at June 2020, which is the peak of the Internet bubble), the stock market still did manage to recover. It took 12 years but it did recover, and now SPY is just 2x of $145.

snowwrestler 6y ago

There’s not a perfect investment out there, so the real question is what beat equities over that time span? You have to do something with your savings. “Nothing but dividends” over 10 years still beats the heck out of holding cash over that period of time, for example.

wocram 6y ago

I agree with your point, but your numbers don't accurately reflect total-return (ie. include dividends).