There are a number of analysts comparing the effectiveness of attempts to mitigate this pandemic and finding lockdowns to be high cost and risk for low impact a

There are a number of analysts comparing the effectiveness of attempts to mitigate this pandemic and finding lockdowns to be high cost and risk for low impact as compared to distancing, handwashing, masks, testing, and tracking. One of the most prominent is Isaac Ben-Israel https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-israeli-prof-claims-simple-stats-show-virus-plays-itself-\ https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-israeli-prof-claims-simple... out-after-70-days/ I'm sorry you don't like the actual math, but the reality is that the initial wave of this pandemic has been burning out in all the effected areas in very similar ways regardless of lockdowns or not. Personally I find detailed studies by experienced professionals like Isaac Ben-Israel more compelling than what you present here.