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Classic conflation of the effects of a pandemic itself with the measures taken to fight it. Things would not be going along swimmingly if governments hadn't st

Classic conflation of the effects of a pandemic itself with the measures taken to fight it. Things would not be going along swimmingly if governments hadn't stepped in with social distancing measures; instead there'd be a lot more dead and everyone wouldn't be leaving their home anyway out of raw fear.

elmerfud 6y ago
Sweden begs to differ with this statement as the as the misleading headline article from the NY times shows that their numbers aren't meaningfully different than other European countries which did lockdown. UK which has a lockdown policy was quite a bit higher. CDC own numbers on this aren't really supporting the panic level either. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm Pneumonia is still stomping covid19 as far as deaths. Death projections are made from the 2017-2019 data and as of now they're at 101% of their protections. That number moves up and down but has been sticking really close to 100%. With 60+k unexpected covid19 we should be around 105-107% deaths but we're not. Things aren't over yet but all the be data coming out is very much supporting that is has been a massive overreaction. If we're going to overreact for the purpose of saving lives, why don't we don't we do it to solve the 9.1 million deaths from hunger and hunger related issues?
- CydeWeys 6y ago
  Sweden is a lot more locked down than you seem to think it is, and they are experiencing the same bad economic effects: https://www.ft.com/content/93105160-dcb4-4721-9e58-a7b262cd4b6e https://www.ft.com/content/93105160-dcb4-4721-9e58-a7b262cd4... The main difference is that they have a lot more deaths relative to many other countries that handled social distancing better.
- mopsi 6y ago
  > UK which has a lockdown policy was quite a bit higher. No, the UK was following in Sweden's footsteps until forecasts became untenable, by which time a lot of damage had been already done: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/03/16/905285/uk-dropping-coronavirus-herd-immunity-strategy-250000-dead/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/03/16/905285/uk-droppi... Compared to its neighbours, Sweden is doing remarkably bad: https://twitter.com/MarkkuPeltonen/status/1261138454236352518 https://twitter.com/MarkkuPeltonen/status/126113845423635251... In terms of economy, Sweden's GDP is expected to fall about as much as rest of the EU (~7%).
  - elmerfud 6y ago
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/15/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/15/world/europe/... UK was just one example. Sweden is no worse off that other European countries. You can cherry pick the neighbors but that's doing a disservice. Of course their GDP is expected to fall. All of the countries are tightly linked together in their economic outcomes.
    - ericb 6y ago
      Sweden and Norway were "tied" a little while ago. Not so much, now.
lbeltrame 6y ago
I have a question on this regard, since my digging didn't find anything. Is there any correlation between where the first clusters of cases where found (schools, hospitals, offices, houses...) and the subsequent hit on the health system?

elmerfud 6y ago

Sweden begs to differ with this statement as the as the misleading headline article from the NY times shows that their numbers aren't meaningfully different than other European countries which did lockdown. UK which has a lockdown policy was quite a bit higher. CDC own numbers on this aren't really supporting the panic level either. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm Pneumonia is still stomping covid19 as far as deaths. Death projections are made from the 2017-2019 data and as of now they're at 101% of their protections. That number moves up and down but has been sticking really close to 100%. With 60+k unexpected covid19 we should be around 105-107% deaths but we're not. Things aren't over yet but all the be data coming out is very much supporting that is has been a massive overreaction. If we're going to overreact for the purpose of saving lives, why don't we don't we do it to solve the 9.1 million deaths from hunger and hunger related issues?

CydeWeys 6y ago
Sweden is a lot more locked down than you seem to think it is, and they are experiencing the same bad economic effects: https://www.ft.com/content/93105160-dcb4-4721-9e58-a7b262cd4b6e https://www.ft.com/content/93105160-dcb4-4721-9e58-a7b262cd4... The main difference is that they have a lot more deaths relative to many other countries that handled social distancing better.
mopsi 6y ago
> UK which has a lockdown policy was quite a bit higher. No, the UK was following in Sweden's footsteps until forecasts became untenable, by which time a lot of damage had been already done: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/03/16/905285/uk-dropping-coronavirus-herd-immunity-strategy-250000-dead/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/03/16/905285/uk-droppi... Compared to its neighbours, Sweden is doing remarkably bad: https://twitter.com/MarkkuPeltonen/status/1261138454236352518 https://twitter.com/MarkkuPeltonen/status/126113845423635251... In terms of economy, Sweden's GDP is expected to fall about as much as rest of the EU (~7%).
- elmerfud 6y ago
  https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/15/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/15/world/europe/... UK was just one example. Sweden is no worse off that other European countries. You can cherry pick the neighbors but that's doing a disservice. Of course their GDP is expected to fall. All of the countries are tightly linked together in their economic outcomes.
  - ericb 6y ago
    Sweden and Norway were "tied" a little while ago. Not so much, now.

lbeltrame 6y ago

I have a question on this regard, since my digging didn't find anything. Is there any correlation between where the first clusters of cases where found (schools, hospitals, offices, houses...) and the subsequent hit on the health system?