Which stock? If you want to price any individual company, traditional value-based analysis using earnings, assets, and future revenue growth expectations will

Which stock? If you want to price any individual company, traditional value-based analysis using earnings, assets, and future revenue growth expectations will get you a number. This number varies wildly between different companies. If you're talking about a broad index like the S&P, I personally look at 30 years of price history, draw a best fit line to average out growth to a normal level, then discount 7% for our current economic trough (5% output drop Q1, likely 10% or more this quarter). By this method, S&P should be somewhere around 2150. The problem, of course, is that we've been in an unprecedented financial situation since 2009 fueled by massive debt inflation among corporations due to near-free money from the government for an entire decade. When will the party end? Who knows. The other problem is that it's hard to predict what will happen post-lockdown globally. As a result, traditional analysis is easily beat by irrational investment even on multi-year timescales these days.