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I would suspect that even after a vaccine comes out travelling of all sorts will be depressed; maybe to the point of permanently moving the needle. As an analo
by tankenmate 6y ago
I would suspect that even after a vaccine comes out travelling of all sorts will be depressed; maybe to the point of permanently moving the needle.
As an analogy, public health experts suggest we should do away with shaking hands in the future. It may well be that social norms such as travelling, shaking hands, etc will permanently change.
- blackrock 6y agoDepressed travelling has some interesting plays here. This means that AirBnB is dead. And all those people that bought multiple houses, with multiple mortgages, which they can no longer service, are going to go bankrupt. Good riddance. You can’t short AirBnB, but what other companies can you short? The loan processing companies? Zillow? BofA?
- mxschumacher 6y agothat the tourist sector is in trouble isn't exactly a secret at this point, so additional shorts seem risky. Avis Budget, a car rental company, does 2/3 of their rentals at airports and they carry a huge amount of debt. The car rental space is extremely competitive as it is and new ride sharing offers don't make things easier. Hertz is already very close to bankruptcy
- tankenmate 6y agoAnd completing the circle Warren Buffet has a relatively famous saying, "After all, you only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out."[0] [0] Berkshire Hathaway Chairman's Letter (2001)