3 ms·

I came to the same realization, but it was unnecessarily difficult to see through all of the snark. If all parties had simply focused on the salient points of d

I came to the same realization, but it was unnecessarily difficult to see through all of the snark. If all parties had simply focused on the salient points of disgreement rather than snarking at each other, it could have been cleared up much more quickly. The GP is right; all sides should be embarrassed.

kthxbye123 6y ago
It would not have "been cleared up", because the CEA didn't make an honest mistake, it was a deliberate attempt to seed disinformation in order to support the President's political agenda.
- arkades 6y ago
  There's a subset of people that would prefer to think that the halls of power are manned by morons, rather than the criminally selfish. I don't know what that says about any of us.
  - cossatot 6y ago
    Malice and stupidity are not mutually exclusive.
- ahdeanz 6y ago
  Exactly. It was the epidemiological modeling equivalent of suggesting we all inject disinfectant. Only it was worse because it was politically motivated instead of solely stupid.
ahdeanz 6y ago
Sorry but you’re completely wrong. If an analysis is making a reasonable effort to use the best or even some sort of relevant methodology in the field maybe. There is an entire field built around the learnings and failures of previous work that informs how we do things now. In this circumstance the economist came in with no understanding or desire to understand any of that and through some random excel function at the problem to get the answer out they wanted for political expediency. Not to mention the prediction was ridiculously stupid and anyone with common sense let alone an epidemiology degree could see it was going to be wildly incorrect within days. THAT is the model being talked about at the highest levels of government when you have the entire field of the world class epidemiologists at your fingertips. Trying to “both sides” this one because scientists who have spent their whole lives trying working on this got a little snarky is just missing the boat. There are plenty of other places where epi Twitter is having productive cordial discussions.
- kevinskii 6y ago
  Yes, the prediction was clearly stupid. No one is arguing that. But claiming it was the "worst day in the history of the CEA," or words to that effect, amounted to a long and pointless distraction that could have been avoided, and both sides were clearly guilty of it. The whole exchange would have been rightly flagged into oblivion if it appeared on HN.

kthxbye123 6y ago

It would not have "been cleared up", because the CEA didn't make an honest mistake, it was a deliberate attempt to seed disinformation in order to support the President's political agenda.

arkades 6y ago
There's a subset of people that would prefer to think that the halls of power are manned by morons, rather than the criminally selfish. I don't know what that says about any of us.
- cossatot 6y ago
  Malice and stupidity are not mutually exclusive.
ahdeanz 6y ago
Exactly. It was the epidemiological modeling equivalent of suggesting we all inject disinfectant. Only it was worse because it was politically motivated instead of solely stupid.

ahdeanz 6y ago

Sorry but you’re completely wrong. If an analysis is making a reasonable effort to use the best or even some sort of relevant methodology in the field maybe. There is an entire field built around the learnings and failures of previous work that informs how we do things now. In this circumstance the economist came in with no understanding or desire to understand any of that and through some random excel function at the problem to get the answer out they wanted for political expediency. Not to mention the prediction was ridiculously stupid and anyone with common sense let alone an epidemiology degree could see it was going to be wildly incorrect within days. THAT is the model being talked about at the highest levels of government when you have the entire field of the world class epidemiologists at your fingertips. Trying to “both sides” this one because scientists who have spent their whole lives trying working on this got a little snarky is just missing the boat. There are plenty of other places where epi Twitter is having productive cordial discussions.

kevinskii 6y ago
Yes, the prediction was clearly stupid. No one is arguing that. But claiming it was the "worst day in the history of the CEA," or words to that effect, amounted to a long and pointless distraction that could have been avoided, and both sides were clearly guilty of it. The whole exchange would have been rightly flagged into oblivion if it appeared on HN.